| Player 1 |
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#player1 Arie_Sinke Arie Sinke
#player2 Chloe_Fatsis Chloe Fatsis
>Arie_Sinke: EGINNRR 8D GRINNER +70 70
#note I have the privilege of opening with an easy bingo.
>Chloe_Fatsis: DHLNOOR 7I HOLD +23 23
>Arie_Sinke: BCMSSTT J6 C..MS +17 87
#note I correctly evaluated that this was marginally better than exchanging, but didn't generate the superior BORTS in the same spot, which undoubles the Ts at a cost of only two points and a hook. This is a substantial error; even something like BITTS F7 for 9 outsims CORMS. The BSTT leave has a negative value despite containing an S.
>Chloe_Fatsis: AACNORT 10C CORTANA. +62 85
>Chloe_Fatsis: AACNORT -- -62 23
#note looked at AACINORT for so long but could not find RAINCOAT, and also mixed up CURTANA with this dumb phony
>Arie_Sinke: BNOSTTT F7 B.TT +8 95
#note A: I should probably play BOTTS 10F here. It also blocks RAINCOAT and keeps a leave comparable to BITT's, but scores 5 more points.
C: Arie said if he'd known I was going to miss RAINCOAT again he would not have played this
>Chloe_Fatsis: AACNORT 8L ARCO +25 48
>Arie_Sinke: ANOOSTV D8 .AVOT +18 113
#note This and AVO/OCA in a variety of places for at least 4 fewer points sim comparably; I don't really like AVO/OVA here.
>Chloe_Fatsis: AIJNTTU C11 JUT +31 79
>Arie_Sinke: DHNOOSS 9H OH.S +28 141
#note Missed SONHOODS through the O.
>Chloe_Fatsis: AILNOPT O8 .PTIONAL +83 162
>Arie_Sinke: DENNOSW E11 WEND +45 186
#note This looks fine.
>Chloe_Fatsis: FIIKMSU 15A KUFIS +48 210
>Arie_Sinke: ?ENOPSY 14H dYSPNOE. +78 264
#note Best bingo.
>Chloe_Fatsis: ABEILMR H12 BI.E +24 234
#note Missed ALEMBIC which looks solidly better
>Arie_Sinke: ADDEEOV L10 DEVO. +18 282
#note I thought of playing VAC N6 here. It doesn't do well in a sim but seems like a patially effective block. I just wasn't convinced that I was in a comfortable enough position to sacrifice that much equity to eliminate one spot for eights ending in a C. Something as simple as an X play could get Chloe right back in the game even if neither of us bingo. I still prefer my play, and the sim vastly prefers my play, but I am not without doubts, doubts which are reinforced by the eventual outcome of the game.
>Chloe_Fatsis: ?AIILMR N1 MARLItI. +72 306
#note If he blocked I was considering fishing the A to go for A8 LIMERICK
>Arie_Sinke: AADEGOX O1 AXE +53 335
#note This is fine, ODEA O1 is an interesting alternative that does well in the sim by threatening to continue to score next turn, but 15 points is too much to give up.
>Chloe_Fatsis: EEZ M2 ZEE +51 357
>Arie_Sinke: ADGIILO 4L G..D +30 365
#note The leave is poor, but I have to take my chances with it, as any other play sacrifices too many points and concedes the scoring battle.
>Chloe_Fatsis: AEEGQTW 13G Q. +21 378
#note Quackle wants me to hold onto the Q and play N10 ETWEE or M13 WOE, I guess I can often draw an I for K5 QI or a U to bail me out. still goes against instinct
>Arie_Sinke: AAFIILO E3 FOLIA. +22 387
#note This looked obvious when I played it, but the sim suggests it's a significant error, and I am inclined to believe it. By playing LAARI E5, I retain the F at a sacrifice of only 5 points, and midrange consonants can be valuable in pre-endgames on closed boards, as there are relatively few scoring opportunities and something as simple as FOO M14 for 22 can be very consequential. This is supposed to win 34% of the time compared to 49% for LAARI. In close games these little things can make a huge difference.
>Chloe_Fatsis: AEEGRTW D4 WE +22 400
#note I preferred leaving 2 in the bag to 1 with WAG or EWE. According to champ D3 EW wins 100% of the time which seems kinda unintuitive, but I guess the three extra points are important, and maybe WE actually gives him some slightly better options despite not setting up REF.
>Arie_Sinke: AAEINRU 3C RE. +18 405
#note I'm not sure what to do here, and don't have any productive ideas. Quackle thinks AE F3 wins 22% of the time, which seems inordinately high. I need to threaten to score with the Y while hoping that Chloe is vowel heavy and can't score much going out in two. With REF I grab as many points as possible right now while hoping to get SAY K9 next turn and outrun. I am considering the Y as twice as likely as usual to show up, as Chloe would likely have played YOW if she had it. The problem with REF is TREF; the only win I can see for myself after REF is if I draw TY, which is a 1/72 shot, and even then I need Chloe to not find REFUGEE, which wins. AE seems to win with optimal play for both sides in several endgames that involve me getting the Y, so it must be a better play. Quackle is also misevaluating because it thinks WOG is good, and a bunch of endgames involve setting up WOG/TREFA plays, so not sure about the numbers.
>Chloe_Fatsis: AEEGIRT B1 RETIE +17 417
#note -5 to 12J GIVE which blocks SAY, but this also always wins
>Arie_Sinke: AAINUUY A5 YUAN +26 431
>Chloe_Fatsis: AG N10 AG +12 429
>Chloe_Fatsis: (AIU) +6 435 |
