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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 MEO Mark Edward Owens
#player2 JJB John J. Bulten
>MEO: FIT 8G FIT +12 12
#note 0:54 [24:06] Andy Hoang has set up, and Nancy Bowen has hosted, a "triple crown" event with three tournaments totaling 13 games in one weekend (which later gets extended to 14 games). There will be minimal repeat pairings across the three events too, so players are excited at the variety. JJB and MEO get the first round and MEO receives first play with a quiet opening not revealing the full power of his rack.
>JJB: ABEOPRW 7E PROBE +24 24
#note 1:39 [23:21] (bewrap 7h 24 +1.8) Though bewrap is the same score, the negative O leave is still better than the negative AW leave and should be slightly preferred here.
>MEO: CEIRT 8A TRICE +34 46
#note 0:57 [23:09] MEO breaks up bingo letters with good reason; he may also have picked up a power tile that doesn't go with the bingo rack.
>JJB: ABIKOTW C7 W.KI +20 44
#note 0:44 [20:37] (bawk 9h 25 +1.8) Another rare word, bawk/bib/eta gets the points on this rack. JJB declines ab/ar/bi 16 and takes wiki, the newer word, over kiwi.
>MEO: IX B10 XI +50 96
#note 1:38 [21:31] 50-point X incoming!
>JJB: AABEIOT A11 BEATA +28 72
>JJB: AABEIOT -- -28 44
#note 0:56 [19:41] (biota a11 28 +33.6) JJB stumbles by misremembering a word from crosswords that is phony in Scrabble. He has the right spot but doesn't work out abate/ai or even biota for better combo. This will cost a big tempo.
>MEO: OQTU I3 TOQU.. +16 112
#note 1:44 [19:47] (to 9g 15 +.2) MEO holds and challenges within 10 seconds, seeing abate immediately and recognizing the mistake. He cannot reach the premium himself with qi, so plays off the Q cheaply (qubit is also possible if that increases synergy, but probably not).
>JJB: AABEIOT A11 BIOTA +28 72
#note 1:15 [18:26] JJB sees the right play one turn too late.
>MEO: HOP 5I .OPH +36 148
#note 0:26 [19:21] MEO has now drawn a second, better hit at the Q.
>JJB: AADDEMR H1 DRAM +39 111
#note 2:17 [16:09] JJB takes some time to find the best combo. The double here is dharma 30, which looks nice but lags behind the premiums at h1 and b14.
>MEO: AVY E7 ..AVY +26 174
#note 3:07 [16:14] MEO also takes his time with an imbalanced rack and shows off another fine extension.
>JJB: ADEGOTU L1 DOUG. +24 135
#note 1:47 [14:22] (oughted l2 28 +2.2) JJB is briefly suspicious of this spelling but does not hold. He scores enough to keep pace but can get even more turnover with oughted 28 or toughed 26, or outed/op/uh 30.
>MEO: FLRU 2J FL.UR +32 206
#note 1:01 [15:13] The double-triple opening attracts MEO's F, adding flour to the dough. And does he hold an S?
>JJB: AAESTYZ 13A .YEZ +32 167
#note 3:04 [11:18] (yez 6l 49 +17) Always look at all the premiums on the board! Here dough takes STY hooks and the triple-letter can be reached with yez/doughy 49. JJB's leave ranks behind tzar b5 38 and the block yez/floury 37 (!), among others. Best use of the triple is ay/floury 27.
>MEO: ?EGHINW O2 sHEWING +100 306
#note 1:33 [13:40] MEO now has nine bingo placements to choose from (including unweight and whingier) and can easily find the best. However, JJB still has win chances, especially if he forms the bingo he's working on.
>JJB: AANORST 14A .ORA +31 198
#note 3:09 [8:09] At least JJB's previous play allows a great and hopeful overlap given his tiles.
>MEO: AJ B6 JA. +31 337
#note 1:14 [12:26] MEO has an average cold draw but can at least get thirty with yet another premium.
>JJB: AENOSTU 15D SOUTANE +87 285
#note 1:32 [6:37] Finally, a rack JJB knows, though he has to take his time about it. This choice gives him about 11%-12% win odds.
>MEO: ACEEMN 14J MENACE +42 379
#note 1:05 [11:21] MEO works out yet another optimal premium, getting nonuple for his M due to JJB's bingo.
>JJB: DILNSST O10 LINT.D +24 309
#note 2:54 [3:43] (dons j4 27 +5.7) JJB works on the parallels and sees unis m2 34, but doesn't work out dons/dots j4 27 to keep his vowel. Instead he fixates on the double; but it can be remembered that SS is only worth +11.3 and doesn't overcome the deficit on the leave with unis, or indeed rise to the leave of dons/dots. In column O, sled and idles rate higher on leave. Further, by its leave and its use of the quickest points, linted gives one of the lowest win rates, about 1%; the 5%-6% odds go to several j4 plays, unis m2, and unis/units 6i.
>MEO: EGNV M11 VEG.N +18 397
#note 2:31 [8:50] (veg g3 26 +8.2) MEO bypasses veg/vat/emo 26 for an effective block of the best open lines, making it very hard for JJB to respond but still showing only 88% win odds if not knowing the distribution of the Ss and blank. With its points and its block of a/jar as a bingo, veg g3 actually has 95% wins, along with neg n4 22. If MEO holds the A himself, he might be better off cashing it now with ganev 29 (98%).
>JJB: EEEISSS M5 SEE +23 332
#note 1:46 [1:57] JJB gets about one of the worst draws he can, seeing only bingo tiles in the bag and imbalance on his rack. He makes the best static choice and technically still has about 7% odds of winning, but odds are that opponent has already claimed the blank.
>MEO: ?ADELLO 5A hALLOED +75 472
#note 3:02 [5:48] MEO scratches out the bingo for the win in all cases. Oeillade also wins in two places!
>JJB: AEIIRSS 9I SERAIS +25 357
#note 1:30 [0:27] JJB is stuck having to score the maximum points with a non-bingo rack.
>MEO: N J5 .N +8 480
#note 0:40 [5:08]
>MEO: (I) +2 482
#note MEO is blessed in this first game with good synergy and excellent finds of premiums, garnering almost 500 and not betraying any mistakes, unless the pre-endgame could be improved by further analysis. JJB phonied to lose a key tempo and missed a prime use of dough/y, but did not make significant other errors and could not have won the game with his opportunity points. Known points available: MEO 0, JJB 17. Overall points available: MEO 8.4+, JJB 62.3.
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