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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 CA Chuck Armstrong
#player2 JJB John J. Bulten
>CA: ?AEEGTT 8C TAGETEs +66 66
#note 1:42 [23:18] (gazette 8d 68 +2.6) The top two seeds now sit down to play the final round after not getting a chance to for over 30 years. The legendary CA has streaked 5 games and then lost with 436, keeping his average well over 450, so he is ready to roll against second seed JJB, who has gotten beaten back to 2-4 but is averaging over 430 due to the two wins. Only Mark Garrod at 5-1 contends with CA for first place, but if both have the same result then CA's giant spread is likely determinative. CA has had fewer firsts and proceeds to draw a blank with some duplicates, and has plenty of options. He demonstrates his opening preference of sacrificing two points for vowel placement compared to gazette; he probably also thinks that gestate/tentage 68 are too hookable. Simulation gives little benefit to the more open 68-pointers, at different times putting gazette/tagetes/gestate 68 on top, but often preferring tentage 8f 66 or even 8e 64. Most bingos hover around 65%-70%, and tagetes 8c is in the lower end, but this simulation is inexact and depends on factors too subtle to analyze simply: so it's best left to the player's intuition. And in some cases the mathematical edge is just too minimal to overcome psychological factors like the idiosyncrasy of this placement in the first place.
>JJB: EEFHHOR 9F FOH +23 23
#note 2:09 [22:51] (thereof c8 34 +8.1) JJB is too flummoxed after a long day to see hereof on his rack (7f 26) or to hook it onto the T for 34. He could also undouble with feh 23.
>CA: AIKSV 10B KIVAS +32 98
#note 0:56 [22:22] CA is also happy to show off how to use an S for 30 points, probably holding another one too.
>JJB: EEHJLPR 7H HELPER +24 47
#note 2:02 [20:49] (help 7h 21 +.1) With a little more time spent, JJB now sees the turnover play, and it's well indicated in that keeping the ER rates almost identically. Play open against an expert even if it kills you. He turns down kelep and kreep, which lag behind.
>CA: ABILRSU N1 BURIALS +84 182
#note 2:02 [20:20] CA has drawn burials/railbus and still takes his time to ensure there are no others (namely balisaur and subviral).
>JJB: EEJNNOT 4J ENJO.N +28 75
#note 2:53 [17:56] JJB finds the best use of his J but is still 100 down after two bingos and is using time in the hopes of improvements that aren't there. Jennet 28 in two places is disfavored on leave, jeton cannot play fully and only gets 13, jeep and eejit leave two Ns, jinnee won't play, and its phony anagram won't help against CA.
>CA: AM O1 AM +28 210
#note 0:50 [19:30]
>JJB: DDEMOTU D4 DOUM. +16 91
#note 3:08 [14:48] (mood m2 28 +8.4) JJB gets another analysis rack and compares the double, douma 16, to the triple overlap, duo 5j 24, deciding that the 8 points aren't worth the worse leave (but it's only worse by about 2). But while reviewing triple overlaps, he should also work out mood or doom in column M for real points; and mooter 31 is almost worth the leave too. For turnover, there's demoted 28.
>CA: DOU 5J DUO +24 234
#note 0:36 [18:54] Now CA has, and plays, the exact superior play that JJB turned down. Way to school.
>JJB: BDEGRTV 5B GR.VED +22 113
#note 2:03 [12:45] (adverb e10 24 +.7) JJB rates groved 22 above bevor 20, but he might have preferred the open adverb 24.
>CA: AA 7C A.A +12 246
#note 1:15 [17:39] Those double-letters next to consonants are certainly good for inflating one's vowel dumps! CA has outpointed his opponent five turns in a row so is entitled a little bit of slack as he regroups bingo letters.
>JJB: BCEIRTY K7 .RICY +24 137
#note 2:50 [9:55] (beigy b2 38 +17.1) In yet another deep think, JJB does not succeed in building on -gy to get 38 and settles for a double again. The good fishes are aby e10 16 and bey f4 16; the turnovers are verity 32 and pyretic 28, all superior to the bare double of pricy/pyric.
>CA: GL F4 L.G +8 254
#note 5:08 [12:31] (gled j2 10 +2) Now CA takes his time, holding bingo letters with duplication but demonstrably without a real bingo or clear resolution. He is willing to play off two cheaply, for which he will face further duplication, but it's not important if his vocabulary comes through. He could take gled 10 but does not hold the O hook and has no need to be open.
>JJB: BEEINQT 11A QI +17 154
#note 0:29 [9:26] (cinq 10k 35 +14.9; qi 6a 18 +1) JJB, thankful for the respite, has his play ready; he also doesn't want to use an extra point to make it easy for CA at 6a. But then he misses cinq again (how many times is it sought when unavailable, and how many is it available when unsought?).
>CA: AEENNSS M7 .ENNASES +68 322
#note 1:14 [11:17] And there it is, a win with 99% certainty, out of three duplicates.
>JJB: BCEENTT 3G BENT +14 168
#note 2:48 [6:38] (bent j11 15 +1) Now many plays are closely ranked and the only real static improvement is bent/by for one point more. Promising leave. But the better win chances lie with the nonuple threat of beset 14k 14, or else nett 3g 10 as a much better opening (favoring -ize) than bent 14.
>CA: EIINRTW 12B TWINIER +79 401
#note 0:27 [10:50] CA demonstrates that he can also draw natural bingos out of the bag. Well, this happens about one out of eight turns, so simply play eight bingos and you're likely to have a pair of them together. Win chances are now about 99.9%.
>JJB: ACDEOTZ H11 C.AZE +48 216
#note 1:42 [4:56] (croze h11 48 +2.2) JJB hardly needs to worry about time, since he will get so few turns this game due to opponent turnover. He has a power rack and can recover a few points, but still needs a miracle, and it may not help to keep O instead of A when it can be swapped out. Dozer/dater c1 still offers hopes of a successful nonuple threat (dater appears to lead simulation at 1%), other plays might win with a tripled Z bingo, but craze does win two simulations out of thousands and has better dynamic value than say the openers coed h1 27 or ado 11m 4.
>CA: OORT 14D TROO. +16 417
#note 2:01 [8:49] (toro n11 18 +2) He can also get 18 for toro/roto. Trooz/zoo/orzo are effective blocks that still win 99.9%, but roto/toro shows no losses in thousands of sims. This may be a function of Quackle's endgame choice tree as CA is likely to have power and vision to prevent winning combinations even after trooz.
>JJB: ?DIOTWX H1 Il.X +54 270
#note 2:56 [2:00] (lox 4f 41 +24.1) JJB, starved, uses up the blank with its best location but poor leave, even though the same spot could be sealed up with lox 41 if one thinks perpendicularly. Ibex/ilex lead dynamic value but do not win, as the blank is not that useful in the endgame anyway. Quackle still holds out hope of fishing W and drawing oxidate 2c (including scoring t/ew), or playing tix anywhere and drawing woodsia 2a, both of which might conceivably win on high followups if opponent is vowel-blocked.
>CA: AEIILOP 15A ILIA +18 435
#note 2:03 [6:46] (aioli n10 28, fudgy b2 42, pe o14 17+12 +29) CA has played a sterling game with perfect or defensible choices at every turn, so his choice of ilia is his biggest omission. While EOP seems reasonable, the fact is that opponent holds fousty 40, which blocks all six outs (ope twice and four anagrams of pose). He has time to keep searching, and poise/ail (or paise/oil) succeeds and might commend itself easily, but if one is looking sharp one might find aioli with five overlaps, worth 28 and keeping EP to play for 17 in two places, netting 15 to him.
>JJB: DFOTUWY 14K FU.TY +22 292
#note 1:48.5 [0:11.5] (fousty 14j 40, pye o13 24, wud l13 14+2 +16) But JJB, overawed, is having trouble remembering whether foustier is a valid anagram of outfires. Instead he plays fusty safely, letting his opponent get away and netting -2 points instead of 14.
>CA: EOP J11 OPE +10 445
#note 0:47 [5:59]
>CA: (DOW) +14 459
#note CA marks his return to competitive Scrabble by closing the tourney with a true expertly played game, making no real errors except for leaving himself potentially without an outplay, which could have bitten him for 29 opportunity points but only cost him 13 with opponent's response. JJB's errors weren't enough to overcome CA's excellent draws, but his omissions (thereof, beigy, cinq, fousty, and parallel board vision) kept him under 300 in the end; even being sure of fousty alone would have put him over. CA wins the tourney with a hefty spread at 6-1, while JJB heads home with the consolation of having successfully fished to extend ref into refutation in his previous game. Known points available: JJB 18, CA 33. Overall points available: CA 35.6+, JJB 92.6.
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