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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 MW Michael Waski
#player2 JJB John J. Bulten
>MW: ABNNU 8H UNBAN +16 16
#note 1:10 [23:50] JJB and his observer wife have traveled the furthest to arrive at New Haven, Indiana, where the first Three Rivers Tournament has been organized; so he is pleased to hear that furthest distance is one of the achievements that will be awarded with specialty prize racks. Now, as second seed behind the legendary Chuck Armstrong, who returns to tournament play after the pandemic on this occasion, JJB faces MW in the first of several new pairings pitting him against Northerners. MW draws I to JJB's J, and begins the tourney with a simple indicated play to reach the double.
>JJB: HRRSSTY K6 TR.SHY +24 24
#note 1:01 [23:59] Despite rack imbalance this play is easy to find. Rhyta 22 is harder to find but there is no need to keep the second S here.
>MW: ?EIOPST 9C POeTISE +68 84
#note ~0:35 [~23:15] (isotype m7 78 +10) MW neglects his own hook, in that several words with S in second or sixth position would use unbans effectively for 10 more, including his own poetise.
>JJB: DEEEORS L10 OE +12 36
#note 2:37 [21:22] (stereoed f8 63 +26.2) Though JJB drew to a bingo, stereoed is one word he's had trouble finding in the past. He's confident there's a bingo through the T (the only scorer available), but it does not manifest and a simple fish, second-best, commends itself as best leave combo other than a bingo. Big opportunity cost.
>MW: CEX E9 .XEC +24 108
#note ~1:34 [21:41] MW is comfortable padding his lead with the X.
>JJB: DEELORS M9 RESOLED +80 116
#note 0:44 [20:38] (resoled 13c 85 +5) Now it's JJB's turn to forget to pluralize for points with resoled/execs 85. Those central bigrams will retain their temptations to play nines for awhile, and on this turn they offer delousers 63.
>MW: EF N14 FE +23 131
#note 2:08 [19:33]
>JJB: ?HOPRTV 12B POR.H +24 140
#note 4:31 [16:07] (phot 8a 37 +16.4) Now the big hotspots are 8a and 15o, but the latter only accommodates dev 21 (still second-best as a blocker with solid leave). The top static score is phot 37, leaving RV? safely and way ahead of the simple double. Instead JJB is busy ruling out overpath* and trying to fit hoverport onto this board.
>MW: AEU 8A EAU +13 144
#note 0:28 [19:05] MW has a majority of vowels and using up this powerful opening for a cheap 13 is still the best and indicated play for the tiles shown.
>JJB: ?INRTVW 15K WI..N +30 170
#note 1:54 [14:13] (vow c11 18 +1.7) Now interview is the squeaky word that doesn't go. It's easier to seal row 15 now, but JJB's former confident review of words like winder 33 doesn't give him enough certainty today to claim the better play. Still better is the easily found vow 18, with stratospheric leave.
>MW: BEIOOST N4 BOOTIES +74 218
#note 0:50 [18:15] The vowels come together for a second bingo for MW!
>JJB: ?FNRTTV C8 ..FR.NT +24 194
#note 1:01 [13:12] Whatever happens, JJB can be proud to clear a 6-consonant rack with this sneaky extension that rates 8.4 ahead of all competition (e.g. font c11); he's not far behind even with an extra bingo to opponent.
>MW: EMOV O1 MOVE +35 253
#note 0:59 [17:16] MW has an easier line to use than JJB's.
>JJB: ?IRTTUV F6 VIR.U +29 223
#note 2:12 [11:00] Another non-bingo draw, but another sterling play manifests itself in time. Virtu/ut 22 is second-best.
>MW: AAIIL 13F AALII +12 265
#note 0:23 [16:53] (pia b12 16 +2.6; aalii j2 13 +1) MW signals weakness and JJB is busy clearing accompaniments to his blank, so there is still hope; MW misses a better placement, as well as pia 16 to keep a consonant.
>JJB: ?AJMQTT I12 Q. +11 234
#note ~4:22 [~6:38] (haj f12 29 +19.0) The problem is that MW's play has opened a very strong J spot, but not one that JJB can use to as full an effect as he'd like. This clouds his judgment and suggests to him to dump the Q; but qat 24 is the best there and JJB rejects it, intentionally blocking column H instead. The fact is that many other plays yield great leave value, starting with the obvious haj 29 that JJB rejected as too little, then jambe 32, matt 33 with four overlaps in column O, and aji 55 using the blank (which JJB also turned down for no good reason). This error is almost as costly as missing the bingo earlier.
>MW: ANOY 14B A.ONY +49 314
#note ~1:04 [~15:49] MW pauses the clock after 4 seconds to verify the play. Alas, the clock's display has been fading fast this game and this is the last notation either player will be able to read from it. MW shortly notices the clock battery is completely out, the director is called and a replacement is found, and it is agreed that the players will regard the inverse of their recorded elapsed times to define what will be overtime on the new clock. That is, the last known remaining times for MW and JJB were 16:49 and 6:38, so they will start their new clocks at 25:00, and regard them as overtime after 8:11 and 18:22 respectively if needed. Notations herein refer to the actual time remaining established by this agreement (it's probable that MW got another free minute out of the deal too, with no sweat). This idiosyncrasy resolved, MW scores a big 49 with the premium where JJB bypassed a score of 55, leaving the J with less power to express itself.
>JJB: ?AAJMTT 2L JAT. +22 256
#note 1:30 [~4:08] (jambe 4k 32 +4.6) JJB doesn't form jambe or a column-O play and makes the second-best J play, with more opportunity cost.
>MW: DDELU A6 DU.LED +8 322
#note ~0:49 [~15:00] (lud h13 12 +9.5; dueled a4 10 +2) With JJB shutting down the top rows reflexively, MW can tell it's time to knock out the best bingo line. Responses will not open much, but the D, V, T in row 6 are also respectable possibilities for 9s while they stand. JJB can be anticipated to be holding the blank by now and so the block is well-timed despite its low static value. His reasonable fish possibilities include cavaletti, declivity, ravigotte, trivalent, etc.
>JJB: ?AIIIMT 15A MI +14 270
#note 3:08 [~2:00] (pia b12 7 +3.8) Militia won't go; fishing is correct, but ti/it in column O score the same with better leave, and pia/in 7 is even better balanced. Yet the whole board favors 9s over 8s and 7s right now.
>MW: AD O7 AD +20 342
#note 1:17 [~13:43] MW seals up another easy scorer to prevent power tile use. Slightly higher win rates go to da/id/aw 19.
>JJB: ?AEGIIT L1 A.I +11 281
#note 0:33 [~1:27] (jig l2 22 +10.6) JJB's opening choice is not that strong due to its high specificity and the reliance on blank as S, but he is also under time pressure; it leaves him about 20% win odds. Jig l2 is favored on static value and allows an -ing play with about 30% odds, as does gie/te with about 25%. Simulation does not rely on -ing, however, and prefers gie/de above all with about 35% odds, where the G starter may be used directly or played off of if not blocked.
>MW: AEGLZ B2 GLAZE +39 381
#note 1:47 [~11:56] (zig 3k 32 +3.6) Now MW must deal with 2 in the bag and his exact rack is unrecorded. Based on possible racks, best static plays are listed as zig/ag 32 with leave worth 2.9-7.9; adz/rez 25 plus 1.8-8.8; wiz 7e 25 plus 4.8; or waggle/de 31 plus 5.2 (unless opponent replies to his waggle with twerking 194!). MW's play gives a lead of 100, but bears a risk in several scenarios, namely that JJB can win with any ajis hook, or kartings 84+20; or even tie with tackling/talcking or antirock. What MW needs mathematically is a block of 100% of winning bingos. If he holds C then this would be ceil/al 16 or glia/aa 14, as JJB would not be able to use the remaining lines to win. If he does not hold C but holds N, he can use only glia/aa 14 to block top rows and column I. If he holds GW with his glaze, glia still runs a risk in 2 of the 36 cases he can see, namely cretinous or decurving (also including the simpler cisterna or dicentra). So in the GW case only he cannot obtain 100% certainty and he needs to get 35/36 (97%) by also blocking the decurving threat using one of columns H-J: aglus; agene; or za, la, or awe (with at or et). At least this way he's also blocking nectarine, lacertine, thickener, etc.!
>JJB: ?EGIKRT 4H KITEs +46 327
#note 1:01 [~0:26] (kiers 4h 46, wan m1 21, tog 6m 9+10 +1) With the hard work over and with less than a minute to go adjusted, JJB can accept not having drawn the win, and can score what he can, namely cashing the blank as an S; choices are easy. His only neglect is that kites allows good opponent reply that keirs/kiers does not, an omission worth 1 point net.
>MW: CGNW M1 W.N +21 402
#note 0:53 [~11:03] (wig 3k 25, gor 5m 14+8 +4) MW has been concentrating on the vertical play and does not see the new horizontal potential.
>JJB: GR 6M G.R +8 335
#note 0:07 [~0:13] (gor 5m 14+10 +6) JJB is only one row off seeing a higher scorer.
>JJB: (CG) +10 345
#note And so MW ekes out a win against a blank held for 9 turns without a bingo appearing, missing only minor variations. JJB's missing of stereoed, and his failure to see and use spots like row 8 and row 14, were significant enough to be outplayed by MW's solid blocking approach. Known points available: JJB 12, MW 19. Overall points available: MW 31.7+, JJB 94.3.
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