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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 JJB John J. Bulten
#player2 SD Steven Dinapoli
>JJB: AADITTY H8 DITTY +24 24
#note 1:07 [23:53] (adjust score +2; adyta 8h 20 +2.8) AA is just such a marginal leave that adyta 20 is preferred, also more defensive, a word that JJB would have considered if he had seen it. He even underscores in his haste.
>SD: AGINNOR 11E ORA.ING +32 32
#note 2:46 [22:14] (ignorant 11a 68 +35.8) SD does well to begin with a quadruple, but is convinced there's something better and doesn't see it. During the postmortem it occurs that it was ignorant 68. Also hard to find was adorning 61 (which takes no S).
>JJB: AAGHIRX G7 RAX +39 63
#note 1:03 [22:50] (ax g8 37 +2.5) Keeping the R would significantly improve leave; otherwise the play is straightforward.
>SD: LNNOSWY 12B WYNN +22 54
#note 1:02 [21:12] (snowy 12a 29 +.3) By a very slight margin, Quackle prefers to cash the S and play open with snowy 29 or wynns 32; these both are right around the 8-point rule of thumb necessary for doing so. SD is okay with holding the leave in reserve on an open board.
>JJB: ADGHILT F6 HAD +22 85
#note 3:54 [18:56] (whig b12 22 +1.5) The bingos are alighted/gilthead and daylight, but Y is blocked and no E has manifested yet. Dumping two of the higher letters is indicated, but the leave is slightly better with whid/whig, or ghat f5, all for the same score. Halting 21 is also in this tier.
>SD: ?EILOST I2 mOTILES +64 118
#note 4:46 [16:26] (ostiole 5e 82 +18) It would have been fun to have claimed the other quadruple: estriol, isolate, ostiole. A double would also have been better. SD's play has the slight virtue of tempting the opponent to hold.
>JJB: GILNORT E4 TROG +19 104
#note 3:58 [14:58] (rootling 3g 70 +48.5) Now it's JJB's turn to search fruitlessly for a present bingo, and it's more serious to him for not turning up rootling. His leave and score is quite a bit behind lowing, towing, trowing, rowing 24-26. Weak leave decisions accumulate and can lead to missed bingo decisions, and here the opportunity to gain 37 in lead is sorely missed.
>SD: DIIKMTZ D1 ZITI +50 168
#note 1:21 [15:05] Plus, SD gets 50 off the Z.
>JJB: IILNNOP C9 PIN.IN +28 132
#note 1:52 [13:06] (pinion c2 29 +2.5) No need for pinyin/pinyon when pinion plays parallel for more and ditches the O: again JJB could improve his leave.
>SD: ?DHKMPS 2B KH. +20 188
#note 0:36 [14:29] (skimp 2b 38 +18.5) SD secures the second blank with six consonants, if this rack is transcribed correctly. With his lead and holding the blank, it's worth playing the S again for skimp 38 in the same place. Win chances are about 93% with skimp, and almost as much if the bingo equivalents pashm or husk are taken, both 57.
>JJB: AEELLOO 1D .OEAL +42 174
#note 0:41 [12:25] Finally JJB gets an easy decision at the cost of a hard rack.
>SD: ?DEMPRS 3G PR.MiSED +80 268
#note 0:53 [13:36] SD finds the best play (the I yields epiderms/simpered). Now it remains to be seen who can bingo without the blanks.
>JJB: AAELORT C2 .ALO +21 195
#note 2:59 [9:26] (areolate m1 59 +26.2) But JJB does not happen to consider making a 5-voweled 8 with his rack, which would show him areolate; he is fixated on the only other word on the rack, aleatory. This omission is another setback, but it is not game-determinative in itself. He does find the best dump/leave combination.
>SD: EEEFILS 2K LIFE +28 296
#note 1:59 [11:37] (selfie 15c 42 +7.9) SD decides it's time to go about sealing off bingo lines and widening the score gap. Selfie 42 would open them, but from its static value it does have a slight simulation edge. In general, the lead is high enough and the board still open enough that fishing garners the most wins, such as self-directing the f/eat hook with eke b1 10; SD's strategy of cashing points immediately is a little behind either fishing or cashing even more points.
>JJB: AEEORRT B12 .OE +18 213
#note 2:17 [7:09] JJB gets another easy choice based on static value, but he is now 101 behind without scorers or premiums. Simulation is bouncy, and so it's hard to tell whether wae/woe fully outperforms opening alternatives like enate 14b 14 or oater 10j 16. Holding the last Rs, he could direct himself a quite reliable hook with ai 10b 4, that works well even if he doesn't bingo; this holds about 3% win chances, like wae/woe.
>SD: AEEEFSS 1N FE +22 318
#note 2:07 [9:30] (safe d6 26 +3.9) SD now has the opportunity to use his F more effectively with the fortuitous safe/soh/agar/pe 26. He could also shut down column A setup risk with kef/s 20/23, or cash both Ss at once with esse 15a 34, all of which rate above 99% along with his choice in very close simulation. Keeping both Ss seems to allow him more flexibility.
>JJB: ABCERRT L1 B..TRE +22 235
#note 3:31 [3:38] (ab g11 11 +1.0) Still bingo hunting, JJB wants a better crack on the unseen Ss. His choice ranks with bister, ristra, bisect with win odds ranging 3-4%; the ordinary-looking baiter, biter, citer in row 5 also score well, as do blite, librate in column K, and some exchanges. The simulation winner at about 4.5% appears to be rib 10b 7 (compare rice 11), with superior leave and a useful C hook. (There is not strong cause to assume opponent has both Ss, which would alter simulation significantly, putting bistre in a surprisingly better light.)
>SD: ADEENSS 15C SENSED +36 354
#note 3:53 [5:37] (tes 4l 17 +1.7) SD is now willing to score his Ss and give a free bingo line, leaving a little temptation (about 1%) on the table, riskier than sedans 36 or esse 34. These two also rate strongly in wins, but if one decides to shut down column M it can be done with ease (ease, k5 14!).
>JJB: ABCEGRW 14G WEB +16 251
#note 1:17 [2:21] (wig 10b 15 +8.2; brew 5k 18 +3) The showy play is aircrew 24 through disconnected tiles, but it doesn't quite lead or clear the rack. Wig 10b is recommended on leave, but the time for hook setups has passed. In the idiosyncrasies of Quackle endgames, craw 5k 18 seems to win the most cases, though its primary virtue is leaving row N open. But web 16 does win a few cases as well, so the close analysis doesn't yield a clear answer. In the case of web, he could still hope not to block agravic or acreage; with craw, he hopes for embargo, overbig, iceberg, auberge (two slots on row 14), megabar, begrime, with higher chances and points due to not clogging up row 14.
>SD: AAAEMQU 13I AQUAE +35 389
#note 0:57 [4:40] Of course the J and Q are still wildcards and it's easy for SD to score and make the opening differently precise (also cutting into bistre parallels).
>JJB: ACCGIOR 10B C.G +12 263
#note 0:39 [1:44] (go 1a 15 +4.5) Stuck without choragic and with 3 in bag, no win remains. Conventional wisdom would be to play two, like go 15 or cig 12, but at this point the ugly bag should be telling JJB to abandon the bingo and try to score by drawing J. The spread minimizer seems to be arc 14l 14, with reasonable hope of jog/arco 39; the immediate points route is circa 10b 26, still also allowing goji but about 5 behind arc. The shift from bingo tiles to power focus is hard to internalize.
>SD: AJMUUVV L12 J.VA +30 419
#note 0:28 [4:12] Although J was one of the last 8 in the bag, SD had given himself 5 chances to draw it if JJB didn't hold it, and so down it goes. Now JJB is knowably vowel-heavy and could hardly get a bingo down if one existed in these letters. UU is not worth sweating.
>JJB: ACIOORU 15L .RIA +12 275
#note 1:36 [0:08] (cauri 15k 21, eruv 5k 14, koa b2 14, mu a14 17+2 +12) Now JJB is without a good out in two: his only possibility seems to be auric 12, mauve 30, coo 8+2, net of -10. He is better off letting SD go out while he blocks mauve, using cauri 21 and koa 14. His actual play of aria 12 yields only cog 13 and allows the opponent the same replies plus 2 in leave, down 12. But then he used up all his time not to find cauri.
>SD: EMUUV O12 UVE. +8 427
#note ~1:47 [~2:25] (eruv 5k 14, cog d8 13, mu a14 17+4 +6) 6 behind eruv.
>JJB: COOU 6L .CO +7 282
#note 0:05 [0:03] (cog d8 13, mu a14 17+4 +6) 6 behind cog/po.
>SD: MU A14 MU +17 444
#note ~0:12 [2:13]
>SD: (OU) +4 448
#note JJB's first three today were all games where the loser had fewer provably available points overall than total spread: i.e., blowouts. But he only won one of them. SD makes good on two blank bingos, though missing a third bingo opportunity, while JJB's two missed bingos were strong dampeners. Turn by turn he could do nothing, though there's always the theory that cumulative improvements could have won the game overall in concert; but that's in the wild hypothetical realm. Known points available: JJB 23, SD 24. Overall points available: SD 92.1, JJB 117.7.
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