| Player 1 |
|
#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Kolton_Koehler Kolton Koehler
#player2 Stefan_Kac Stefan Kac
>Kolton_Koehler: OCYZ 8E COZY +36 36
>Stefan_Kac: AAEGLNP 9F PEAL +29 29
#note CoCo PABST
8 October 2022
Game 1
The top of the sim goes:
PA 21—36.3
PAAL 29—35.3
PAAN 29—32
PEAG 31—30
PEA 27—29.5
PEAL 29—29.1
Of course PEAG is what popped in the moment, but the E-hook is a major downside given there are nearly three times more EEs than ESSes unseen. I also can't fully quit the plebeian view of GN as a lovelily synchronous pair, as against the more banally platonic LN relationship. I also don't know PAAL# and wouldn't ever look for PAAN here given there are four more EEs than AAs unseen. (Altho the former outsimming the latter by 3+ is *quite* a victory for the plebs!!) The AGLN leave plus superior defense does seem a bit better than my play, so PEA actually appeals more than the others. As for PA, I'm just not there yet. It looks at least as easy to hit as PEAG and scores 8 to 10 points fewer than the other top choices. I don't get it at all.
In any case, I definitely failed here in the area of inference. Because COZEY is a word, opp is probably not keeping an EE and is only about one-in-five to draw one. By my logic above, that makes PEAG better than PEAL, and it adds a smidge of value to any of the plays that form (Z)A rather than (Z)E.
>Kolton_Koehler: AIIUGT E2 AUGITI. +20 56
>Stefan_Kac: ABGLNST 10E BANG +35 64
#note Chickened out of TABL(I)NGS. BANG might just be the play regardless.
>Kolton_Koehler: INNR 3C IN.RN +12 68
>Stefan_Kac: EIHLSST 11A HITLESS +97 151
#note I haven't studied any 1+1 nwl+csw pairs, so I wouldn't find 11D TEHSILS#.
>Kolton_Koehler: AEIHLRS J9 SHALIER +77 +145
>Stefan_Kac: EOGLMRT B10 G.MLET +26 +187
#note Suddenly, after opening with PEAL instead of PEAG, I'm so terrified of the G that I make a clear blunder. MOT(H)ER ought to be good enough for me here. With the lead against a superior opp, 15H GO(R)M probably is not the kind of long-term volatity that I want, but it's better than GIMLET and it sims shockingly close to the top.
>Kolton_Koehler: AOOKR 15G KAR.OO +33 +178
>Kolton_Koehler: EINRV (challenge) +5 183
#note SK: "Challenge everything." "It's only a nickel." But this cost me the option of accepting a sure win after an actually-bizarre out play.
>Stefan_Kac: EEIOLNV 14F VOE +22 209
>Kolton_Koehler: EINRV 13I V.NIER +28 211
>Stefan_Kac: EEIODNR 4G ORDINEE +70 279
>Kolton_Koehler: AA?FRTW M6 FlATWAR. +64 275
>Stefan_Kac: AAEUBJW 8L B.JU +48 327
>Kolton_Koehler: OX K10 OX +41 316
>Stefan_Kac: AAEEITW A13 AWE +31 358
>Kolton_Koehler: Q 7D Q. +11 327
>Stefan_Kac: AEIDDTY 5G DEITY +39 397
#note Had been staring down this spot as a way to take out the T floater. When I realized how much it scores I just plopped it down. 3J TIDDY# is not a play I'm going to find or make very often, but now that the row six T is kild, perhaps I should already be looking for ways to restrict column o and restrict opp's options for opening the top right. Such is hindsight.
>Kolton_Koehler: EP M2 PE. +10 337
>Stefan_Kac: AIOUUDT 2J UTO.IA +20 417
#note L1 OU wins 98+% in a four-ply sim. Lots of 10-15 point two-tile plays on the other side of the board do much better than UTOPIA, but I'm not sure this stands up to human inference after an unambiguous (E)PEE setup. I didn't think I was ahead by quite enough to forgo emptying the bag here, but I also didn't realize just how many bingoes are in the pool with a mid-position U.
>Kolton_Koehler: EO?DFMS O4 FaMO.SED +67 404
>Kolton_Koehler: EO?DFMS (challenge) +5 409
>Kolton_Koehler: (UCND) +14 423 |
