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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Jared_Cappel Jared Cappel
#player2 Arie_Sinke Arie Sinke
>Jared_Cappel: AIRSTUZ 8C TZURIS +50 50
>Arie_Sinke: AIKNOPV - +0 0
#note
Challenging TZURIS was a poor decision and probably not adequately thought out. I was aware that there were multiple spellings and couldn't recall TZURISES being the last word in the T section of the dictionary, so I convinced myself that this was a misremembering or bluff. KIVA 7G for 33 looks like a perfectly good play.
>Jared_Cappel: ?AAEIOR H1 AERAdIO. +74 124
>Arie_Sinke: AIKNOPV 7G K.P +28 28
#note This sims way ahead of anything else; AINOV is actually a decent leave when there are floating consonants and a floating E.
>Jared_Cappel: GHIJOPY 2F JO.Y +30 154
>Arie_Sinke: AEINOSV J4 EVASION +74 102
#note Only bingo.
>Jared_Cappel: FGHIOPV K9 FOH +25 179
>Arie_Sinke: ACDEEGO 3E GOE. +18 120
#note This easily wins a sim despite scoring somewhat less than most of the alternatives; ACDE is a good a leave as I can hope for and it goes well with the T.
>Jared_Cappel: CEGINPV 4D VIG +28 207
>Arie_Sinke: ABCDEER D8 .EBEC +36 156
#note This looks like a reasonable equity play; something like BEAD L10 to fork the board is an interesting possibility, but I'm not desperate enough to want to introduce volatility.
>Jared_Cappel: CEILNPW 11B CL.W +18 225
>Arie_Sinke: ADEEIRR L10 DIRE +19 175
#note This play is a modestly open play that forks the board by creating NODE and DIRER, which I have, while eliminating FOHN, which I don't have. The sim's top three choices are even more open - AIRED L11 for 21, DEAIR L10 for 21, and VARIED 5J for 20. All of these plays are too aggressive for me, even with a deficit, and I think the sim is overvaluing equity a bit here. I really liked the elegant way that DIRE forks the board with DIRER and NODE, both hooks that I have with my AER leave.
>Jared_Cappel: DEINOPT M5 POINTED +74 299
>Arie_Sinke: ADELRRW 14F DRAWLER +73 248
>Jared_Cappel: ?EGHTUY H12 YE.H +42 341
>Arie_Sinke: AINQRTX N4 NIX +55 303
#note There is some merit to RAX instead, which makes the O column harder to use but sacrifices in leave. I liked leaving AQRT because I likely draw a good scoring play with an S or a U. The plays all sim closely.
>Jared_Cappel: ?GMMNTU O3 MUG +16 357
>Arie_Sinke: AADQRST 13A QATS +45 348
#note No reasonable alternatives here.
>Jared_Cappel: ?IMNOTU 8M .OM +15 372
>Arie_Sinke: AAADNRT A13 .AT +36 384
#note Again, no reasonable alternatives.
>Jared_Cappel: ?ILNNTU 7B NU +6 378
>Arie_Sinke: AAADENR 6B ANEAR +16 400
#note A sim to the end of the game thinks this or ARENA in the same spot is my best bet. I'm reading Jared pretty clearly for the blank after NU, and after NOM to a lesser extent, and it would appear that INg ending bingos are a serious threat. It's best to block in a way that scores enough to be in a good position to outrun in the event that no bingo transpires. Trying to fish for a counterbingo is unlikely to work here; at best I get something 20% of the time or so with the blank out of reach and I jeopardize my odds of outrunning.
>Jared_Cappel: ?BILNOT 1H .BLuTION +87 465
>Arie_Sinke: ADFLSTU F12 DU.S +6 406
#note I failed to look for a bingo from the M, and I had one, MUDFLATS. I just assumed that I had nothing and fixated on blocking EIDE to go out in 2. This isn't even the best way to do that - SUDD in the same spot nets me an extra 10 points in the process. I think I forgot that SUDD was a word. I feel sad because I played pretty well this game other than my first turn challenge and my last turn bingo miss, but those two huge errors were enough to cost me the win.
>Jared_Cappel: EEI 12C I.E. +15 480
>Arie_Sinke: AFLT 13K F.TAL +21 427
>Arie_Sinke: (E) +2 429
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