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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 JJB John J. Bulten
#player2 PH Paul Holser
>JJB: ADEEHIR 8D HEADIER +80 80
#note 0:18 [24:42] The second day of play features three swiss games without repeats and a king of the hill. JJB is hopeful to beat PH in both segments, but is surprised to face him so soon; but he has returned to third and PH has just beaten Asif Ali in second, so it's natural. He sees his bingo as soon as the seventh tile appears and wastes no time in the psychological demonstration of quick play without error.
>PH: AEEJNTU J6 JU.AT +30 30
#note 1:23 [23:37] (jura j6 27 +1.4) With T very synergistic with this leave and a good hook too, jura is a point better (jurant falls behind, but junta 7c also scores 34). All the same PH has no worries about his ability to recover the 80 points.
>JJB: AADEPRV E5 VAP.D +22 102
#note 1:43 [22:59] (vape e5 18 +3.7) With lots of six-tile plays but no bingos or quadruples, JJB goes for his best leave but he too plays a letter too many: D adds 7.7 to his synergy but he cashes it for only 4.
>PH: ?AEELNN G1 aNNEALE. +60 90
#note 1:38 [21:59] (annealer 6a 61 +1) PH can find bingos even when drawing unintended duplicates; better placement is 6a. Fewer points: unaneled, entangle, enplaned, biennale.
>JJB: ADELORS 2B LADRO.ES +72 174
#note 1:35 [21:24] (reloads 11d 79 +7) Again the error of not pluralizing a hook with a bingo 7 manifests itself, with three bingo words available. But perhaps blocking the nonuple is worth some dynamic value.
>PH: BCEIOST H1 B.ET +35 125
#note 2:04 [19:55] (ab 1g 21 +2.8) Here the synergy is counterintuitive, but Quackle prefers fishing by playing the B only for 21 (both in static leave and in simulation, where playing one or two tiles, potentially keeping even the A open in row 1, gets up to 25% win chances). So far every non-bingo could have been improved by playing fewer tiles and keeping more synergy.
>JJB: AEGIORT K9 GOATIER +71 245
#note 0:43 [20:41] Time to play the bingo that opens the triple-triple. JJB is keeping good time pressure on too. Goatier only plays through V (ravigote) and cannot infix an L!
>PH: CDEIOSX 3A COX +44 169
#note 1:51 [18:04] PH is holding great racks and making great decisions too, but the power plays he draws are not able to keep up in the opening.
>JJB: EFIMORT A3 .OMFIER +45 290
#note 0:53 [19:48] (retiform 15e 98 +53.1) JJB writes down retiform under gloatier*, but doesn't succeed in bringing himself to believe he has drawn a pelican, and convinces himself to play a safe near-bingo, the highest such. This, his first big error, is strange, because in the last game he took a risky bingo with a similar lead; but perhaps he is still overawed by PH's vocabulary. Foretime 80 is available; comfit 42 is slightly better leave than comfier.
>PH: DEEISUW 15H WEI.D +33 202
#note 0:54 [17:10] Best. JJB says he "always" holds this word, but releases it soon enough.
>JJB: OOQSSTT M11 TOOTS +20 310
#note 3:14 [16:34] (ottos l9 25 +5) Not duplicates to fear, but JJB does miss a 5-tile overlap with these tiles.
>PH: ACEISUY 6J .UICY +25 227
#note 0:50 [16:20] PH continues demonstrating top-tier decisioning.
>JJB: LNQSTUY L4 QU.LT +30 340
#note 1:32 [15:02] (quint l4 30 +1.2) Three Ns and one L remain unseen, but JJB dislikes his L a lot.
>PH: AAEHIMS 14J H.A.S +48 275
#note 0:45 [15:35] (ahimsa n9 50 +3.6) He only gives up a slight bit, but while looking at that double word it might occur to one to go perpendicular, to see what 4 tiles can overlap, and then to find ahimsa in the rack. Certainly showier, and better blank chances. The S adds 17 to his score, but adds 14.9 to his synergy, almost as much; so heat 31 is also defensible on this open board.
>JJB: ?LNNNSY H7 N.NNY +10 350
#note 2:05 [12:57] (linny h7 10 +.1) This time JJB writes down both linny and ninny, and decides not to ditch L, which is the case L this time. Ninny also appears desperate and doesn't reveal the blank.
>PH: ABEIIMO M2 OBI +21 296
#note 0:21 [15:14] (bohemia d6 39 +17.2) This time PH's finding the second-best play is way behind, but only if one can spot an obscure seven with triple overlap, namely bohemia. Studying the 4-voweled sevens will turn this up.
>JJB: ?ALNRSW 9C WA. +16 366
#note 2:54 [10:03] (was n2 38 +17.5; daw d2 27 +11) JJB now bails on many higher scorers (including hooking coxa) in order to form a strong block of open columns. Win chances are led by wanly 11d 22, which forms a stronger block because it's likely to lead to further blocky play; and was n2 38, which successfully pursues the outpointing strategy instead, while wad comes in a little under 99%.
>PH: AEFIIKM N10 KAIF. +31 327
#note 0:24 [14:50] PH believes he has little to consider given the high scorers on his rack, and indeed kaifs/kiefs retain 7-8% win odds. But trading to the case A is not a bad strategy to keep in mind with 9 in bag and slight blank chances; and playing om 8 to set up kaif/oma 50 leads the simulation at about 12%, as opponent is not minded to block.
>JJB: ?ILNPRS O8 SNIP +29 395
#note 4:13 [5:50] (slip o8 29 +.9) Quilt/quint, linny/ninny, slip/snip: for the third time, JJB and Quackle disagree about L/N retention. JJB is not tempted about -ing, but perhaps Quackle is, because JJB's idea about synergy of L with the remainder doesn't hold up to dynamic valuation. Both plays win all the available cases, but slip has about 6 higher spread; pis n2 34 ranks another 11 ahead of that.
>PH: EEGIMOZ 14D GIZMO +42 369
#note 3:37 [11:13] This time JJB has tracked well enough that he writes down a confident correct prediction of PH's play long before it comes. PH considers zee 43 as well, and gizmo indeed has the highest value, but neither wins the spread back. The only basic chances are to play off an M (anywhere) and hope the blank is in the bag and opponent does not block egotize; but the effective real odds are not 1 in 8, but 1 in 33! (JJB has seen 32 tiles since the last bingo and the blank could be any of those unless the odds are set higher through rack inferences. JJB has also tracked well enough and has time enough to be likely to block.) In a wilder simulation, one could play mog 10b 24, hope that opponent not only has no blank but also plays wolver 24 unthinkingly, allowing frieze 68+8 for the win; but these being blockable it's appropriate to award the highest value to gizmo.
>JJB: ?ELRRUV 11C oVERL. +22 417
#note 3:27 [2:23] (revelry 11b 24 +4) Since it's likely that PH may have spotted that drawing the G gives him three easy outs, JJB should just search for the highest score, and doesn't spend quite enough time doing so to come up with revelry 24. What's important is that the spread of 48 won't be overcome.
>PH: EEG 4A .GEE +24 393
#note 0:23 [10:50] PH has nothing to be ashamed of with this excellent endgame.
>PH: (RU) +4 397
#note PH made sterling plays all game, with the one omission of bohemia, while JJB's omission of retiform was bigger and accompanied by other weaknesses. However, JJB found the early bingos and was able to make some sacrificial plays from a lead of 121 to shut down options, allowing it to whittle down to a comfortable 20 in the final. Known points available: PH 1, JJB 27. Overall points available: PH 26.0, JJB 92.5.
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