| Player 1 |
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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 PH Paul Holser
#player2 JJB John J. Bulten
>PH: BFO 8G FOB +16 16
#note 0:56 [24:04] PH has just lost a game to third seed Asif Ali, putting them both at 5-1, while the end of the round robin pits him against second seed JJB who leads the 4-2 tier. He is also the defending champion at the Silver Dollar Showdown and a class prizewinner at the nationals. Tension for this game is high, which might explain the irregularity that ensues.
>JJB: ?AAESTW 9F WATApES +74 74
>JJB: ?AAESTW -- -74 0
#note 2:00 [23:00] (wastage j6 78 +49.0) JJB later describes himself as overawed. He tries to calculate carefully, spotting several places for wastage and watapes, but not the lineup of triple W with fobs, nor does he see the best parallel of seawant. After favoring watapes 9d 73 and considering alternatives, when he lays down the word it accidentally becomes watapes 9f 74 with the infamous ot* attached. Further, out of desire to make an impression he doesn't succeed in triple-checking the play before clocking. He made an impression, all right!
>PH: DEIIM 9F MEDII +24 40
#note 1:31 [22:33] PH tsks and then points to the offending play questioningly. JJB has spotted the offense immediately and is already busy forming a poker face. PH proceeds to stop the clock and call for a challenge, JJB asks which word (out of a sense of completeness), PH declares ot* verbally, and JJB agrees without getting up and yields the play. It's still anybody's game based on initial draws but the psychological damage has been done. PH sees the best static score response with triple overlap, and recognizes that it's a fool's errand to try to shut down all bingos (impossible now), an errand which JJB has already engaged on his own turn. It may also not be that profitable to minimize opponent response, though the gap can be kept to 58 with a good dump that allows no hooks, namely ibidem 13 (best reply is radwaste). In the long run, even though opponent will open immediately, win chances of 60% still favor the blocky central plays like dim 7f/9h.
>JJB: ?AAESTW 10A WATApES +75 75
#note 1:00 [22:00] (seawant 10d 90 +15) Humiliated, JJB sticks to his last plan without taking time to calculate wastage 83 with four overlaps or find seawant 90 with five.
>PH: AEINNRT 11E ENTRAIN +92 132
#note 1:02 [22:31] PH now takes the lead with an easy quadruple that continues to demonstrate overlap superiority. It's recoverable but JJB gave him enough time to develop and the score accurately reflects the error rate.
>JJB: EGJPQRY B9 J.PERY +36 111
#note 1:54 [20:06] A proper consonantal release from a cold draw, as there should be no expectation of favorable draws from here on out.
>PH: BFO A12 FOB +30 162
#note 1:30 [20:01] As PH considers, JJB is so distracted as to draw seven tiles to his rack of two and to begin to mix them. At 30 seconds in PH is compelled to select from JJB's tiles, views AEQT, and gives JJB the QT. This won't help matters. PH meanwhile holds a similar rack as before and the same word helps him balance once again, continuing strong overlap plays.
>JJB: GLNOQTV C10 .ONG +28 139
#note 4:15 [15:51] Working on attitude despite another minor mishap, JJB rationalizes that he could have drawn that badly without help, but the fact is that his draw was made worse than average by his own oversight. He drew AELNOTV to his GQ and lost the best two tiles, AE (he could have theoretically drawn notate 40 out of these tiles with 4 overlaps, giving him about 20 better static value). For what he drew, he finds the only play better than exchanging to NT (also 12 ahead of his alternate of felon 18).
>PH: ADIX H11 .ADIX +42 204
#note 1:11 [18:50] Padding the lead is easy now.
>JJB: DEHLQTV 12J DEV +19 158
#note 1:42 [14:09] (exchange HQV 0 +1.2) JJB again finds the best balance for now but in the short term would be better off trading with the somewhat positive synergies of DELT, DEL, or DEHT. Simulation disagrees, assigning win odds near 20% for cheap perpendiculars like vext, veil, hived, and veldt.
>PH: AEEORSV M8 OVERSEA +86 290
#note 1:18 [17:32] PH immediately bingos and reduces the value of a bingo in response. Not that JJB is responding with a bingo right away of course, with PH having seen his Q and made further rack inferences from his last two plays.
>JJB: DHLNNQT 14L Q.T +24 182
#note ~0:39 [~13:30] (hold 8l 36 +11.7) Board vision is called for, as JJB focuses only on Q dumping without realizing the much higher value in row 8. NNQT is not the worst hold on this board, almost equal to his leave.
>PH: AGY 8L Y.GA +36 326
#note 0:59 [16:33]
>JJB: DHILLNN L4 HILL. +22 204
#note ~1:46 [11:44] JJB rejects hindly* and makes the stiff-lipped indication.
>PH: CEO 3K ECO +24 350
#note 1:37 [14:56] And PH holds the hook and balances effectively.
>JJB: DKNNNSS 5K K.ND +18 222
#note 0:27 [11:17] (desk k2 35 +8.4) JJB doesn't look at every open vowel on the board. Playing off one S in parallel is choice here. This is his sixth consecutive rack with maximum of one vowel, but that doesn't excuse the omission of good overlaps.
>PH: AIRZ O3 IZAR +33 383
#note 2:22 [12:34] This is also a hook that PH can shut down with premium use and bingo leave. Comebacks are still possible but every turn assists him.
>JJB: NNSSUUW O12 WUSS +46 268
#note 0:29 [10:48] To his two duplicates JJB draws another duplicate, but at least the best play is indicated even if it clears out the S register. He has saved enough time to still have hope of redeeming the endgame, but simulation finds only one win in 500 iterations. Nu i14 13 gives 4 wins, less than 1%.
>PH: CEELMOT 2E TELECOM +69 452
#note 0:40 [11:54] PH now upgrades the game from contest to exhibition, shooting for 500.
>JJB: AGNNRTU 6H RUGA. +16 284
#note 8:59 [1:49] (genu h1 18 +16.0) Though he can still hope to draw the blank, JJB's omission of column H is not explicable, as his own "opening" attempt does not favor him at all when he could direct the valuable hook genu/a. Turnover is not an excuse here.
>PH: HIL H1 H.IL +24 476
#note 1:51 [10:03] PH has enough lead to be very comfortable cashing his pointer on opening up row D himself, leaving only 2 in bag.
>JJB: ENNOTUU 3C NEON +12 296
#note 1:24.4 [0:24.6] (xu 15h 9 +24.8) In simulation, lun 4h 3 has the highest dynamic value, but this empties the bag and it's unlikely that opponent will open up a knowable bingo for JJB. In unseen tiles, PH could himself at this point have bingos through A, I, L, T, or X (albeit he doesn't), but JJB cannot bingo with ENOTU unhelped. He tries for turnover (missing tenuto 12 and tonne 20) on the fond hope that he can dump two Us and three other letters next turn. For all he knows, he may be giving PH a bingo in column C.
>PH: ?EIIPRT 4A PIER +24 500
#note ~5:48 [~4:15] (periti 1j 36, auto 4b 17, fobs a12 24+2 +10) PH, who has not made an error on known tiles all game, has time to work out a good endgame. His choice is to cash premium points, allow opponent a return score, and to pluralize with his blank, but all three are suboptimal here. Knowing and finding the word periti would give him nine more overall and JJB one less.
>JJB: AOTUU A1 ATO. +18 314
#note 0:01.9 [0:22.7] JJB is thankful for the immediate assistance with an obvious last play.
>PH: ?IT 2M TIs +19 519
#note ~0:36 [3:39] (tis 15k 25 +6) PH takes one more look and his out in two is impressive, but he doesn't notice he can hit the Q again and pluralize oversea to get 6 more.
>PH: (UU) +4 523
#note PH made no errors with known tiles except in the endgame, which is quite an expert feat. All the same, JJB drew six consecutive racks with one vowel at most, then a spate of duplicates, and so it's a fair judgment that his 124.1 available points over the course of the game could not have made up the deficit of 209. While his newb mistakes and PH's superior play could be blamed in part, this was not a test of even strength but of strategies in a blowout. On that count PH's play was still superior (only periti escaped his vocab), while JJB still needs to improve focus, vocab (seawant), and pre-endgame tactics. JJB tells PH he always makes up for a round robin when he plays a swiss. Known points available: JJB 15, PH 16. Overall points available: PH 16.0+, JJB 124.1. |
