| Player 1 |
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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 AA Asif Ali
#player2 JJB John J. Bulten
>AA: BGU 8G BUG +12 12
#note 0:55 [24:05] AA and JJB are both in contention for first place with two wins each (tied with first seed Paul Holser), so this is the first big pairing in the round robin. Expert play will be watched for.
>JJB: EEHINOT 9G EH +16 16
#note 1:11 [23:49] (hoe 9h 16 +4.8) JJB opts to hold on to the O, but any similar overlap play is in the top cluster.
>AA: ADO 7G ODA +23 35
#note 0:51 [23:14] AA finds a unique play, a totally keyed Scrabble grid. No twos can be hooked anywhere! Any response must be very specifically tailored, so the first lead has been established.
>JJB: EEINORT 6I RE +8 24
#note 2:28 [21:21] (exchange O 0 +10.2) JJB falls for the trap and makes a weak play, also directing a quadruple to his prepared opponent. Conventional wisdom would be to soldier on despite the board, but analysis would reveal the board as a special situation that calls for a fishing trade rather than a play (EEINRT +22.0 and EINRT +19.1 are the best). A higher-value play would be toe/roe in the same place; tonier/robe 16 is also enough to qualify because the bingo valuation is hard to hold here! But to fish-trade requires nerves of steel.
>AA: IMRT K3 TRIM +17 52
#note 1:30 [21:44] AA does not find a bingo either and agreeably opens up further. Lots is now available, but primarily in only one direction. A competitive play is mi/meh 14, making a parallel opening.
>JJB: EIINORT 4D INTERIO. +68 92
#note 0:37 [20:44] JJB gets down the first bingo, the only word available. He prefers the tricky double-word S hook to the easy triple-word S hook.
>AA: EEW 3E EEW +23 75
#note 1:31 [20:13] The prior closures and the fitting response make the lead only 17, easy to overcome. Same score is eew 5e or ewe 3f.
>JJB: ACDEFKQ 2B FECK +33 125
#note 0:56 [19:48] (faked 2f 45 +9.1; feck 2f 41 +8) JJB is oblivious to the sextuple power of fet here, which allows seven plays better than his choice. But the lead holds.
>AA: AANOO 5C ANOA +29 104
#note 1:06 [19:07] AA temporarily prefers ono 24, but recognizes the virtue in continuing to look for an even better play.
>JJB: ADDENQT I3 Q. +21 146
#note 0:49 [18:59] (qat 3a 33 +7.6) JJB considers row A but neglects another overlap, row C, which can host qat 33. The beginner move is only second best, despite excellent leave.
>AA: AOZ 1A ZOA +43 147
#note 0:43 [18:24] The Z regains the lead for AA.
>JJB: ADDEGNT 8G ...GED +13 159
#note 3:07 [15:52] (dig 5j 9 +5.1) Trying to squeeze points out of this dry situation, JJB writes down bugged 13, tao 17, and den 13, and takes the best of these. Dinged/ode 13 and remand/remend 13 are too open for him at this stage. The situation actually calls for lowering one's points standards another notch, and then noting how to dump consonants on this board while retaining 5-tile synergy (dig/did 5j).
>AA: ASV L2 VAS +32 179
#note 0:47 [17:37] AA is all too happy to use his S to pad the lead by 32 more.
>JJB: ?ADGLNT 3K ..D +8 167
#note 5:16 [10:36] (dit 5j 15 +7.1) JJB spends valuable time convinced that a bingo should arise, but it doesn't. Fishing is the right idea. The six best plays all use vast or vasa; dit, lit, and dita top the list and allow leaves of the kind JJB seeks.
>AA: LPPU F9 PULP +18 197
#note 0:23 [17:14] AA is willing to put some opening power onto the board.
>JJB: ?AGLNST 11D GA.LaNTS +82 249
#note 0:40 [9:56] JJB is now confident of several bingos, so pauses to recount at 10:33, then finds a low quadruple (the alternatives are gellants and gallnuts). This seizes a 52-point leave halfway through but anything can still happen.
>AA: INN 6B INN +10 207
#note 2:22 [14:52] (vin 2l 15 +5.2) AA is now balancing and sets up a hook for J or L, which he has or will have soon.
>JJB: AAHITUX 12F .IX +38 287
#note 1:06 [8:50] (xu 12h 35 +2.4) All vowels play in row 12, so playing off the U is best.
>AA: B 5J B. +9 216
#note 1:53 [12:59] AA must opt for a single-tile fish and finds the useful two-way location.
>JJB: AAEHTUU D9 AU.H +16 303
#note 1:25 [7:25] (vau 2l 15 +2.0) Now JJB must block while keeping points flowing. He can take care of column D well enough.
>AA: S F2 S... +22 238
#note 0:30 [12:29] AA continues to broadcast that he has a blank and wants a bingo.
>JJB: AENOTUV 10B VA. +14 317
#note 0:55 [6:30] (axone h11 33 +11.6; vav 2l 21 +7) The V is convenient for shutting down columns A-C with relative effectiveness, and the rack might not suffer as a result.
>AA: ?JLL 8A JiLL +43 281
#note 0:44 [11:45] Verifying the count at 12:13, AA concludes it's necessary to take 40 for the blank, which is not problematic in simulation either. The bingo risk is real, but the risk that he can use the remaining bag power to overcome the deficit is also real.
>JJB: EEINOTU 7L OI +6 323
#note 2:54 [3:36] (axite h11 33 +23.2; oi 10i 10 +4) Much as he would like to play axite/axone/axion 33, JJB consigns himself to blocking further. Verifying there are no Ls remaining, he concludes that oi/od shuts down the remaining loose columns. The risk against bingos is getting minimized, but the risk from power plays remains.
>AA: EMR 9K REM +14 295
#note 1:15 [10:30] (er 6f 17 +3.6) AA replies with another hook directed to the remaining S, which still retains win chances near the top at about 20%.
>JJB: EENOTUY M9 .ONTY +20 343
#note 0:55 [2:41] (axone h11 33 +21.3) JJB can now recover some points while making the remaining columns and row 13 very difficult. A stepwise strategy may be paying off. Motey and money are better leaves by far.
>AA: FIRR 13I FIRR. +15 310
#note 1:21 [9:09] AA can open up but not for many points for the turn or the potential bingo.
>JJB: ACEEEOU C12 OCA +15 358
#note 2:38.4 [0:02.6] (vee 2l 15 +18.0; arco l12 18 +3) It's now necessary to make a block that makes all remaining chances ineffective. JJB uses almost all his remaining time, which is not enough for complete analysis, but determines quite a lot. Quackle agrees that emptying the bag, and playing in c12, have the best win chances, based on the few bingos they permit. The best three plays are eau 100%, oca 99%, and ecu 98%; better to find the word that doesn't leave an S hook at all! JJB should suspect that swotted remains in the bag and should have allowed himself time to eliminate that possibility. Aside from that oversight and the 2.6 seconds he reserves for himself, he would have the win secured.
>AA: DIOSTTW 15A WOST +30 340
#note ~0:49 [~8:20] (wo n10 28, eye o8 24, vids 2l 19, tee 12m 10, bitt 5j 13+4 +11) With no bingo or win, AA commits himself to the options that minimize absolute spread. JJB cannot go out in two with his rack, so best play is harder to calculate; but, since JJB holds ye/oy/ne 28 and eye/pulpy/lie 23 and can also hook ow/e, there are not that many points to claim. AA's best out in two may be wist 30, ye 28, tod 8+10 (unblockable at 6m), netting 20 points. Best continuation after wost 30 will be vee 15 (blocking vid 2l), vid b10 14, ye 28, bit 12+6, netting 11 to JJB; so wost will net 19 to AA with best response (i.e. assuming JJB has sufficient time). However, wo n10 allows continuations that net 30 points in all, whether opponent scores with eye 24 or blocks with vie/vee 2l 15 (allowing dits o8 24). This out in three may be the best endgame.
>JJB: EEEEIUY N10 YE +28 386
#note 0:01.4 [0:01.2] (vee 2l 15, vid b10 14, ye n10 28, bit 5j 12+6 +8) JJB can do nothing on AA's time except hold his tiles ready to score in two places. Without regard to leave at all now, a key premium is easy to find and have ready to play, even as other pressures can be exerted on the player in time trouble. Being unable to analyze that AA's best pair involves row 2, JJB misses the opportunity to take row 2 first without fear that AA's remaining tiles are worth blocking column N, netting 11. Against ye 28 first, vid 17, eeew 8, bit 12+4 would net only 3.
>AA: DIT 2L .ID +17 357
#note ~0:20 [~8:00] Oddly, AA has no out with the 3 remaining tiles, but he spots the right continuation.
>JJB: EEEIU N1 E. +3 389
#note 0:01.0 [0:00.2] (eeew a12 8, bit 5j 12+4 +9) JJB has no time to analyze that AA will not go out nor to search and must play the first thing he sees. One of his favorite new words, eeew, would net 5 more on score and 4 more on leave.
>AA: T 14B T. +8 365
#note ~0:25 [7:35] (bit 5j 12+8 +4) AA makes one last omission, the hidden hooks vast/bit. In haste he begins JJB's clock rather than neutralizes it. Beginning at 0:00.2, it beeps and displays 0:00 before JJB can neutralize, but this is the grace second allowed by the rules, and would probably not be counted against JJB even if the display had gone past 0:00 because of JJB's time notes showing it had been started in error. However, the showoff of not getting counted out is a delicate balance against the embarrasing optics, namely the issue that going down to the wire keeps happening. When JJB emptied the bag with 2 seconds remaining, it was still conceivable that AA could play well enough and/or run JJB out on time and claim the win on those grounds, but it wasn't there mathematically and didn't happen to happen in actuality.
>AA: (EEIU) +8 373
#note So JJB wins by a very narrow 16, which could have been worse if he had gone overtime on his own account or misplayed further. AA still had chances to win on both cases, not only being left with a 1% chance of having drawn a 100-point bingo, but also with the endgame play. But the win was claimed by scoring two bingos to none and then converted by closing down effectively, despite the static leave analysis showing that a point run was another effective strategy. AA's plays look optimal and JJB's suboptimal by static leave, which is a consoling metric, but a fuller analysis will need to await a more robust evaluation method. Known points available: AA 15, JJB 36. Overall points available: AA 23.9, JJB 139.4. |
