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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 JJB John J. Bulten
#player2 LM Leslie Millard
>JJB: DEGHRUV 8G VUGH +22 22
#note 1:03 [23:57] JJB gets an easy decision from an opening rack. This leave is rated +10.9 in the opening.
>LM: IO 9I OI +12 12
#note 0:56 [24:04]
>JJB: DEFFLRY 10E FLYER +17 39
#note 3:13 [20:44] (defy 10j 26 +11.0; refly 10i 25 +8) JJB uses up time calculating suboptimal moves and writing out phonies. He could simply play refly with the same hook, or take any word that hooks hid (defy, delf, def, etc.).
>LM: EIINT E10 .INITE +18 30
#note 1:59 [22:05] LM goes for a wide-open play to drop her Is.
>JJB: ADFILOX 15A FLAX.D +75 114
#note 2:05 [18:39] Continuing to play slow even though he is conscious of the likely phoniness of the word, JJB takes a risk worth 17.5 more than oxid d12 48.
>LM: AEK 14C KE.A +30 60
#note 2:45 [19:20] (challenge, kea d11 26 +71) LM obligingly accepts the play and also uses some calculation time to make her 30. She should instead challenge and take kea 26 at least.
>JJB: GIJNOOR 13C OR.GIN +43 157
#note 2:01 [16:38] (adjust score +2, jo 13b 32 +1.7) JJB writes down the two best plays in static evaluation, both being flashy overlaps, and he decides to keep the J despite its slight contraindication. He underscores by 2.
>LM: DENT 11H TEND +17 77
#note 2:43 [16:37] (dent 11h 18 +1) The anagram dent gets one point more and doesn't have the extra hook that tend does. Also worth considering, definite 12.
>JJB: AHJORUW L10 JURA +28 185
#note 1:13 [15:25] JJB has both the J and the hook letter and is unconcerned about leave. He could also play uh/tendu 16. He continues easily widening the score gap, but is drawing mixed tiles while LM is working on her bingo.
>LM: ELOST 14J TOLES +26 103
#note 0:54 [15:43] (lo 14l 14 +2.6) And LM has the hook letter too. Even with that, it's probably better just to keep the bingo tiles with lo 14 rather than to cash the triple-double line with only singleton tiles.
>JJB: EHNOORW 15M WHO +37 222
#note 1:24 [14:01] (wahoo 13k 39 +3.8) And LM has also given JJB a powerful and obvious response. Slightly better is to do the calculation on row M and find wahoo/wo/he/os 39; almost always good to play off the O. For fun, JJB writes down woonerf 14, but there is no value to its showiness.
>LM: ACE 15H ACE +17 120
#note 3:30 [12:13] (ae 13l 16 +.5) LM lays down ahi and begins to form ac- and then aec-, but opts for the simple triple that scores sufficiently given the difficult rack. Time is passing. If she held aecia, then acai 22 on the triple would be preferable. If the rack permits, she should also consider eew/ae 16 for a one-tile drop.
>JJB: AEEINOR M12 EE.. +20 242
#note 1:05 [12:56] (joe 10l 12 +1.8) JJB opens a broadly hookable spot, though the even more open joe 12 would be better leave for him without favoring a hook to him. He widens the lead to 122 and if opponent bingoes for about 65 he can hope to reply for about 40.
>LM: Q -4 +0 120
#note 0:36 [11:37] LM is likely trading off vowels and keeping an S.
>JJB: ?AILNOR 12K O.. +6 248
#note 4:33 [8:23] (lo m9 12 +6.2; jo 10l 9 +3) Trusting his lead, JJB spends significant time searching for a bingo that won't go; this rack allows sevens with CDE only, all known words, so phonies are easily rejected. Adding the F, it plays through CMTU, but JJB does not calculate them all before rightly passing on that line also. He doesn't like the lines created with any J play so he drops behind a few points with ore 6 reasoning that he can narrow the broad re hook with benefit now that he can use blank for S. Given this consideration, alternatives include dino 11, infinite 11, and alae 9.
>LM: AMPST K4 TAMPS +30 150
#note 0:34 [11:03] In liew of vowels, LM draws some useful consonants and opens up for 30, probably retaining a useful ES. If she has two Ss, fishing with the pointy hisn/flyers 23 is worth looking for, as column K will still be directed to her.
>JJB: ??AILNR 5E oRINAs.L +62 310
#note 4:40 [3:43] (insular 3i 71 +9) It's the embarrassment of drawing the second blank on a fish: scores don't reward it. JJB misses the hook that allows the nominally most points, and also does not work out the best score through the T, auntlier 66 (both of which allow nonuples). He opts for a funny-looking word that doesn't open up much, although on leave Quackle would cash a blank for lurex 26 first (unless you can get at least 64 for the bingo). These considerations might not matter with such a gap, but at least the nonuple should be avoided. The win is not certain, but a bingo at 3e (e.g. renails) seems to keep the chances closest to 100%.
>LM: CDEEERS N6 DECREES +70 220
#note 1:07 [9:56] (recedes 4a 78 +8) A nonuple slightly favors LM, so she could take the triple overlap of recedes 78 here. It appears that her best slot is the same as JJB's was, 3e, with about 2% win chances left for either line. She can still win with the play she chose.
>JJB: AIIOPTU O1 UTOPIA +36 346
#note 0:20 [3:23] JJB sees the best play immediately and pauses to assist LM with counting the score at 3:38 before putting it down. Way behind but instructive: poilu l2 22.
>LM: BOW 4C BOW +20 240
#note 4:53 [5:03] Both players are committed to using the whole of their clocks. No better-valued play is found for this cold draw, and the remaining bag is not well-balanced. The best win chance may be wot 2m with hope of a triple bingo; but LM is not out of the game yet.
>JJB: EIINORV L2 VIO. +18 364
#note 0:22 [3:01] (virile l1 34 +) JJB again stops to count at 3:20 but does not take time to recall his I dumps. Virile 34 is safe and best iterated value; also safe are vibrio/n 24/26, and the blocky vine/woe 18. Viol is not quite enough points and closure to be 100.00% safe.
>LM: QUY I3 QU.Y +26 266
#note 1:30 [3:33] With Z unseen, scoring QU is a necessary tempo.
>JJB: AEINRSZ 6B ZINE +38 402
#note 2:10.2 [0:50.8] (zins j2 47 +13.6) Now JJB makes a big miscalculation and does not see the possibility of dingbat, the only bingo left to his opponent. Instead he busies himself with potential outs in two after emptying the bag, and attempts to direct a hook to himself without realizing its value to LM (which averages about 40 points dynamic value). Ordinary focused board vision would commend zins/qi/unto 47. Trivia: if he wants a tie even though he holds a 98-point lead, he can play sains 21 hoping for dingbats 89+30, or he can correct his score by adding 2 and then play ba/be 4 hoping for dingbat 68+36.
>LM: ABDGINT A1 DINGBAT +103 369
#note 1:19 [2:14] LM has indeed drawn the only bingo and is unafraid to show it, giving JJB a shock as she plays out with a bamdinger*. (In her own shock she accidentally starts JJB's clock for 4.1 negligible seconds.) He had scored enough that her play is not a win, but he didn't realize how close he was to losing. Having just yesterday given an opponent an endgame play worth up to 113, though for more justified reasons, JJB is playing with unintentional generosity.
>LM: (AMRS) +12 381
#note A close final disguises the fact that the last play scored 103+12 but did not close the gap. LM's patient play paid off in spread even so, though JJB made passable use of drawing more premium tiles and passed a bingo-equivalent phony. Known points available: JJB 22, LM 80. Overall points available: JJB 62.6, LM 83.1+.
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