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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 PM Paul Mulik
#player2 JJB John J. Bulten
>PM: AEGIIIN 8D GENII +16 16
#note 0:40 [24:20] (exchange AII 0 +3.1) Opening the second round robin, PM considers inia cautiously, but it is 7.3 behind the lead in static evaluation. He finds genii in time, the best nontrade; yet Quackle says the leave EGIN +11.9 is worth sacrificing all the points for. On a first turn, trading is often much more indicated.
>JJB: ?AAORWY 7B AWAY +22 22
#note 3:11 [21:49] JJB experiments with -way words but there is no bingo and he does not find the quadruples ropeway and raceway. Compared to these, there is more power in keeping the blank, rated as a rule of thumb about 30; the quadruples only add about 20 to best play of away 22, which leaves a nice OR? +30.4. Noway f8 19 is right behind in evaluation despite no letter being doubled.
>PM: ?ADEFHI 6D FAItHED +82 98
#note 1:43 [22:37] PM draws the other blank and chooses carefully. Deafish is two more points in the same place, but would not be as likely to draw a challenge. Note, fah 6b 42 and fade 6b 45 lead all the other bingo placements due to their synergy and leave.
>JJB: ?BOORSU - +0 22
#note 2:35 [19:14] (arborous b7 72 +46.2) JJB announces a long hold because he is suspicious, having seen faithed only colloquially and not on any study list. After verifying that rubaboos will go down and hoping for burgoos and other options as well, he finally concludes that it's safe to challenge, as an error will be recoverable but a correct challenge will be nearly decisive. The challenge is of course in error and he must wait a turn for evenness to potentially return.
>PM: GILNNNO J6 .ONNING +11 109
#note 0:56 [21:41] (anon b7 6 +6.2) PM opts to display the worst of his rack, keeping a leave of L -.2. But GILN is +11.0, so even trading is ranked better. Sometimes ditching all copies of the problem letter is not necessary. Cashing the same throwaway tiles for 6 is best-ranked, despite its odd appearance; the lack of big scores from any play (unintended by either player) is part of the contribution to the problem.
>JJB: ?BOORSU 11G BUR.OOSe +68 90
#note 1:02 [18:12] (bourbons 11d 86 +18) JJB accepts the welcome improvement on rubaboos. He takes a minute for further improvements, but does not come across bourbons, bourdons (both quadruple), boroughs, or certainty about arborous. Also of note, boudoirs.
>PM: DIJKLPR N10 J.RID +56 165
#note 0:44 [20:57] An easy choice moves the rack more toward balance.
>JJB: AARSTYZ B6 Z. +31 121
#note 3:10 [15:02] (za 10f 35 +6.9) Time spent on mid-length Z words was not rewarded. If one wants to play za, one should use one's A to hook it on ab or aa for 4 more, rather than brashly ditch one tile.
>PM: EEKLPTW 7I W.K +23 188
#note 1:19 [19:38] (tweep 12d 37 +9.2) PM hopes for balance by ditching two tiles, though woke 24 is worth peeling off an E also. Though wok self-directs a hook, simulation only puts about one percentage point in favor of that. Further, in this case a double-double is available for both points and acceptable leave, with either tweep 37 or kelep 39, several percentage points ahead in win chances.
>JJB: AARRSTY 15K ARTSY +40 161
#note 1:28 [13:36] JJB's imbalanced rack can hardly produce a better word.
>PM: EEILPTT 12B PETTLE +20 208
#note 2:52 [16:46] (layette e5 40 +12.6; pettle l2 27 +7) PM does a lot of calculating, and again chooses the slightly weaker word more likely to draw a challenge, preferring pettle over petite (pelite also outranked both). Further, he neglects the self-directed hook of woke. If he had seen the quadruple layette 40, he might have waived the whole hook debate. Triples through the U include puttie, uplit, puttee.
>JJB: AFNORTU H1 FOURT. +39 200
#note 0:36 [13:00] PM has indeed drawn a hold, but JJB has no need to press the issue now. His continued easy triples are keeping pace with PM's sextuple J and other strong plays, and he has a good leave now too.
>PM: AEIMV L3 MAVIE +31 239
#note 2:04 [14:42] PM draws another E and cashes his hook to keep points pressure going, and his sources of points will not dry up this round.
>JJB: ACELMNR 2C AMELC.RN +66 266
#note 0:33 [12:27] JJB draws a well-known anagram and is thankful that PM has only blocked one of the two options. He now controls the lead and can manipulate the remaining score tiles just as well as PM.
>PM: IQ 3B QI +26 265
#note 1:35 [13:07] (qi m2 30 +4) In a slight tactical error or a relative shutdown of a1 for both players, PM gives up 4 points in his Q drop.
>JJB: AABGHRS M2 BAH +29 295
#note 2:34 [9:53] (shag 8l 39 +2.1) JJB, having drawn double A cold for the third time, also misses a superior placement for his choice, bah/pa/eh, as well as a play that uses the S comfortably, shag/mavies.
>PM: EEELTTU 11A TUTEE +22 287
#note 0:57 [12:10] PM finds the best play in a showy overlap. But who wouldn't also have a hard choice upon seeing the second-best play, the even showier extension quezal 24?
>JJB: AGIOPRS N1 RAGI +30 325
#note 2:47 [7:06] (pargo 10b 39 +8.5) JJB sees pargo, which is the best play with another 4-tile overlap, but he is not prepared to risk the lead over it. Pargos 46 also plays in column O; JJB sees the risk and wants to keep OS on his rack for the next turn, but OS also remains among the unseen tiles. He takes the best play that keeps the O, which somewhat reduces the use of column O for a bingo, but he could have just cashed the O with a triple or an overlap like pirog 4a 36.
>PM: CEEELOO B10 C..EL +30 317
#note 0:44 [11:26] (oleo o7 21 +12.3) Even though PM has been working on balancing and keeping score pressure going (neither player has let up at any point), he is getting down to the wire and needs either very strong plays or a bingo. Though couple 24 plays off one more tile and improves static leave, and though oleo o7 uses the J power, they don't do quite enough to address the latest imbalance for the endgame. With 8 in bag, trading all or most all is a valid strategic choice, and is slightly behind in simulation. It appears that coo o8, or oleo 13f or (grudgingly) o7, will allow win chances around 9%-11% (either cashing a spot opponent can use, or opening spots one can presumably use next). Cupel has win chances around 2%, in part because opponent is likelier to bingo with an S than PM is.
>JJB: ADLOOPS O8 POOS +37 362
#note 3:29 [3:37] (pood o8 41 +12.6) JJB rightly calculates that claiming column O will mostly seal the game up, but he makes a costly grammar error: burnoosed is an adjective he has seen long ago, and so pood 41 is vastly preferable to poos. If JJB cannot make a rack inference, pood should work, with win chances around 91% (poos around 88%). However, simulation also suggests that two other options would increase win likelihood to 94%, less intuitively: race to go out against an inferior rack (polos 40 or saloop/ahis 35), or maximize bingo chances (op/zap 26).
>PM: DEEOOUV 4C DEVOU. +24 341
#note 0:50 [10:36] And from PM's point of view JJB now has all the goodies. There is so much power that Quackle sees only one win option left: play so/or 4 and hope to draw the D for devoured 80. In practice an alert opponent will block that with silex/qi/ail and win. From a spread standpoint, then, PM opts to take the points now and accept the loss.
>JJB: ADEILNS 15B SNAILED +87 449
#note 0:20 [3:17] And JJB announces that he has drawn into the bingo, the only one from PM's view in fact. So an admitted narrowly won game is rewarded with a blowout score.
>JJB: (EOX) +20 469
#note In another well-fought, well-balanced match, PM can be consoled that his errors were few and his racks scarcely permitted the win. His choices successfully drew a challenge, JJB's greatest error, and his omissions of tweep and layette were not as serious as JJB's neglect of bourbons and doubt of pargo. But JJB successfully converted the superior racks into a win before the final bingo, and so did not give up too much while playing more flamboyantly. Known points available: PM 13, JJB 19. Overall points available: PM 56.4, JJB 94.3.
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