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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Kenji Kenji
#player2 Eric Eric
>Kenji: EINOQUZ 8D QUOIN +48 48
>Eric: IIIIII -IIIIII +0 0
>Kenji: ACEIORZ F6 ZO. +32 80
#note ZOOECIA is just better. Basically, the factors are the points vs. the superior leave and defense of ZOO, and you can quantify that pretty clearly. (Opponent's rack is basically random, so there's no reason for Quackle to be completely wrong). Quackle says opponent only averages 4.5 more next turn, and this is actually a +/- series where you get some benefit from the openness too, so it's something in the neighborhood of 3.5. The leave is only winning by about 2, and is even worse than it probably appears. Entropy is such that even though the floaters in ZOOECIA increase entropy that's almost entirely negated by the crash potential of ACEIR. The future board prospects in terms of setups and whatnot also don't work well with ZOO, as parallels to ZOO favor high point tiles and especially Ss, and I have neither. Thus ZOOECIA is just pretty clearly better. The bottom of the board is going to open anyway given the shape. It's just nearly impossible to make the case for ZOO here.
>Eric: ENOO 6E O.ONE +14 14
>Kenji: AACEIRX 7H AX +37 117
>Eric: DUW 5C WUD +20 34
>Kenji: AACEIRT C3 CA. +16 133
#note This is just so bad on so many fronts. The reasoning at the time was that the C is mostly used to start words but this board isn't good for that, CAW blocks whatever setup shenanigans Eric might be doing here, and that AI might simply be too open to Eric's range considering WUD is a pretty strong range. The problems with this are many: AEIRT again is just a lot worse than ACERT and has huge crash potential, AI also allows words to start with C in column b, and Eric's range really isn't that great, it could just have had vowels after OZONE and another U and balance after WUD, with the intention of using the Q next turn. Even if we give Eric a leave like ERT, which is pretty much the worst holding after WUD, AI still wins a simulation with that range. Also, again AEIRT has crash potential, and this is not what I want with a substantial lead against a lower rated player.
>Eric: AGL 5I LAG +18 52
>Kenji: AAEIRTT 9H ARIETTA +63 196
>Eric: DEEIORS O8 OSIERED +85 137
>Kenji: DFIRTVY K8 V.RIFY +30 226
#note While this isn't a huge error, VERIFY just doesn't match up with what I want to do in this position, nor is it really good equity. First off, let's start with this: DT is pretty substantially worse than usual here. It needs an E for prefixes and suffixes, I don't have one, and even if I did there's not really a good place for it. T and D are good for bingos but both bad for scoring, and don't do well with consonants, yet I have no vowels and there are no vowel floaters. I don't want to be looking for a bingo any time soon unless I draw really well, and want to focus on scoring. They don't even block the board particularly well. VERIFY also leads to a fair number of S hooks being created, either on columns n or l, both thematically and in terms of scoring well and I do nothing against either of those, both next turn as well as in the medium/long term on future turns since I really can't address the bottom of the board in future iterations unless I can re-parallel or draw an S, and this addresses none of this. A better way of doing pretty much the same thing is playing FERVID, which sacrifices 4 points, but I get almost all of that back from TY which actually does pretty decently on this board since the Y can both score and defend. I also have ZOOTY as a pretty frequent play, which not only scores decently but blocks the sole bingo line ending in S while also partially defending against attempts to open the top left, which are surely going to come soon. Basically, FERVID wins a sim barely, and is superior in all of the ways the sim doesn't mention, and has lower SDs aside, and makes the next few moves much clearer thematically and has a clear road ahead, making it both a stronger and easier-to-play line.
>Eric: ABEHO N11 BOHEA +37 174
>Kenji: DHISSTU 9B DUITS +33 259
#note This is closer than it appears for board reasons: namely that the D in DUITS is never dying and QUIDS does a much better job at board centralization, one of the keys to a closed board. The problem is that this comes at a cost of 3 points and a T that, while it has synergy with S and H, there really aren't spots on the board and there's already a floater T as well as three Ts in the bag: it's not a particularly good tile here. Simulation doesn't really measure this effect but isn't going to factor in how much after QUIDS I'm going to focus on crashing the board: if I'm playing QUIDS that has to be the plan, but it'll take some time and there's two blanks out, so this plan is pretty far out but still can have a degree of success since it's pretty unlikely that the top of the board really ever extends naturally past where it already is. Is this worth 5 equity? Possibly not, and I decided in game it wasn't, but... maybe. DUITS largely limits this plan because it spends an extra turn, and maybe 2, forcing me to deal with the bottom of the board, and thus makes Eric bingoing twice a lot more likely. In a nutshell, I'm okay with DUITS since it just has better points and leave and the benefit of QUIDS just isn't going to be realized for a while and often will never get realized, so I probably still prefer it slightly, but there is a case to be made that QUIDS is better because it does make closing the board long term a lot easier (again, at a cost)
>Eric: AAGMY 4B G.MAY +34 208
>Kenji: ?HLNSST J4 H.S +25 284
#note I did this without much thought, but it deserves more. LAS wins a sim very comfortably, and this was to my surprise, so I decided to analyze this more. While it just looks kind of ugly, creating the A line here isn't that bad since it's both not that good and because I'm going to have to address the T at m9 pretty soon anyway. A lot of Eric's bingos also are going to make me want the H pretty badly, as it's a good scoring tile in a bag without scoring tiles that can counter column b, column m, and row 13 bingos pretty well. Quackle says my next turn goes up by over 8 points. GAMAY may appear to hold more As then usual, but actually it shouldn't, both because of shedding the Y (not great on this board) as well as the potential for Eric to have played GAMA instead of GAMAY with a large number of leaves, setting up that A (which he should do sometimes, but I'm not sure if he does in practice). In reality, he probably still is a bit more likely than random to have an A (but not much) but in theory it should be pretty close to random here. Past this, there's just not a lot of reason to distrust a simulation. I'm not sure I could ever find this in game because it *feels* weird, and this is the only error in this game I'm not too upset about (I'm not sure how to develop heuristics for this necessarily) but post-analysis I pretty much have to go with LAS here.
>Eric: AEILORT B8 I.OLATER +72 280
>Kenji: ?CLNRST 14A C.NTRaLS +59 343
#note It's not that this play is really so much worse, but it just is dominated by LECTeRNS in every way. There's literally nothing good about it. Even the row a parallels are higher risk and higher score now, which is also bad. It's probably only losing an extra 1-1.5% of games, but these errors add up: no one mistake this game was super egregious (maybe the next one, actually) but add them up and they make this the abomination that it is.
>Eric: AIP A12 PI.A +48 328
>Kenji: BEKLMPU A5 BULK +48 391
#note This play is just so lazy and bad. There are literally 8 better moves than this, despite it having the best points and leave combo, and honestly, it just accomplishes nothing. Plays like MUSK/BUSK reduce bingo and have stuff like JEEP a5 as a potential win condition draw. Stuff like KEMP a5 keeps BLU for a win condition of a J draw, where you can play JUBA a lot of the time at n6 next turn and don't need to worry about the E since you know opponent doesn't have one either. Stuff like KEMP j11 tries to do a bit of both blocking and scoring. BULK does absolutely nothing and is the epitome of laziness points and leave mindless crap. Yeah, it's true that my heart's not in it, but I wouldn't even expect to make this play playing 10 minute Woogles games against HastyBot.
>Eric: EIW H12 WI.E +33 361
>Kenji: DEEJMNP M7 JE. +18 409
#note This is pretty just punishment for the last play, and if I made basically any of the other choices this game would be over right now as I either have JEEP a5 or JUBA n6 this turn which are both absolutely devastating. Instead I decide to do nothing intelligent and am stuck here. Obviously the T is the main threat that needs to be addressed, but I also need to be worried about getting outrun as well as other board opening options. Stuff like OFT m11 or IVY f2 serve as real problems at this score. I really can't do stuff like EMO because of that: it can get outrun really badly and doesn't really stop much. JET is on the right path just because it does block and stops a lot of outscoring options because of scoring 18 and dropping the J, however it allows n1 bingos, both immediately as well as some medium fish/score options (I can't really respond to a 20 point fish next turn by dropping the M to block, especially if I only have one vowel) I can partially prevent some of this by playing MO now, with the intention of playing JET next turn, but that suffers from the same sort of outscoring problems, and even after something like IVY the J hook actually does me pretty much no real favors. In a GTO world I can actually consider something like DEMENT: basically forcing Eric into a bingo now or bingo never spot where he still shouldn't have Es, where even if he bingos now it still might not be enough (sometimes the J bombs at 1L). That being said we're not really living in a GTO world, so I'm actually okay with JET, but the score is close enough where I actually do have to get some value out of my J. FREE/FROE is also scary after JET, so that's a reason to do MO/MA first. I'm actually leaning in that direction slightly, as I can often just jettison this whole problem depending on what my opponent does, and often Eric doesn't realize just how threatening the F is here. The major lesson here isn't this turn though: it's last turn.
>Eric: ?EGIORT N1 vERTIGO +81 442
#note Note how bad the options are for racks like this if you play MO first, and that even after a one or two tile fish, blocking n1 is pretty uncomfortable.
>Kenji: DEEEMNP L11 DEEM +32 441
#note DEEP is one point better, as Eric should block next turn with IF.
>Eric: FNNV 2M F.N +6 448
>Kenji: ENP J13 PEN +15 456
#note In my defense I really stopped caring about playing well probably a full day before this, because my tournament was just going that poorly for all sorts of reasons. In my non-defense, a lot of my games before this really weren't much better.
>Kenji: (NV) +10 466
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