| Player 1 |
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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 JJB John J. Bulten
#player2 NB Nancy Bowen
>JJB: IILMNTY 8F MINTILY +82 82
>JJB: IILMNTY -- -82 0
#note 0:20 [24:40] Replete with prior spread, JJB has no problem following the Ian Weinstein model and throwing down the first 7 he can, good or not. Only slightly suspicious of the phony, he reasons that a lost challenge would not expose much and is easily recoverable unless opponent takes time to go into a hard block. Tinily 26 evaluates best at 28.5; mintily* rates 83.1 (reward 54.6), but a lost challenge only 2.4 (risk 26.1). It's definitely "worth it", though a loss would ruin his accuracy rating.
>NB: FOO 8H OOF +12 12
#note 0:13 [24:47] Even faster, NB finds herself compelled to dump vowels. Quackle prefers central foo 8g by 2.3.
>JJB: IILMNTY 7I MILTY +29 29
#note 1:31 [23:09] Slightly better synergy is to quadruple the Y rather than the M with limy 7f/9f 27, yielding INT and 1.3 better static value than milty. Retaining the T for 3.3 is better than the 2 sacrificed.
>NB: ABILV M2 VIABL. +28 40
#note 2:29 [22:18]
>JJB: ?ILNTWZ 9G ZIT +31 60
#note 6:53 [16:16] After significant calculation JJB can only double the Z with zit 31 (zin is equal in synergy). Counterintuitively, Quackle much prefers the leave of playing wiz anywhere, which nets 26 at g8 without even doubling the Z! This yields 0.8 better value after sacrificing 5 points.
>NB: AH 10F HA +24 64
#note 0:46 [21:32] NB continues working toward a bingo without revealing much about her rack or cutting into her endgame time.
>JJB: ?DJLNRW 4L J.W +26 86
#note 1:20 [14:56] Drawing into no vowels but many options, at least this location is a clear choice, with jarl some points behind, and drawl a late third.
>NB: EMOY F10 .OMEY +21 85
#note 0:45 [20:47] Now bailing on two middle-pointers NB can score reasonably. If comfortable bailing only one, yob 5k 25 rates 5.3+ better.
>JJB: ?ADLNRS O4 SLANDeR +89 175
#note 2:49 [12:07] JJB's calculations don't reveal that snarled/homeys gets 2 better.
>NB: OOW E11 WOO +28 113
#note 0:44 [20:03] NB divests her rack of Os but is likely to have a surfeit of Ts remaining. If she has one T on her rack, woo 28 is still better, but if she has two then wot 28 rises above.
>JJB: ?CEIRRV 12D V..ER +22 197
#note 4:43 [7:26] Gratified to freshly pull the second blank, but using more precious time, which will become a peak commodity and a bete noire in the endgame, JJB invents the play curvifier*/ziti. He then spots vomer, which commends itself as well above the alternatives (5.6 above the tepid rom 10).
>NB: ADEITTT N9 TATTIED +75 188
>NB: ADEITTT -- -75 113
#note 1:47 [19:16] Perhaps NB's hesitation gave away her uncertainty. The recommendation is tattie or tatted in this spot, as there is not much gain in attempting to preserve synergy. The phony has a reward of 53.6, a risk of 26.2, but unlike mintily* it doesn't have a natural grammatical path so it's much more likely to get called. JJB holds and takes 2:07 to challenge it off the board; it's not in his immediate study scope but he is scheduled to make a special study of words containing D later on. Holding a blank and just having drawn the X also makes him more confident.
>JJB: ?CDIRUX 14B CURD. +30 227
#note 3:38 [3:48] Curdy is now the best play on bingo chances, but a near-bingo is only two points behind, in a spot already seen: crucifix/ziti 54! The showiness of this placement would definitely commend itself as offsetting the two-point benefit of holding X and blank for later.
>NB: ADEITTT H11 T.AIT +15 128
#note 0:51 [18:25] Rated as 1.8 behind tattie 21, but this does not account for opponent response.
>JJB: ?ABCEIX 2M .EX +26 253
#note 1:09 [2:39] Again neglect of both time and premiums misses out on a higher placement for these tiles, ex/mote 31. Also that would avoid opponent sharp response.
>NB: DET O1 E. +27 155
#note 0:19 [18:06] NB may be suffering from vowels, leading her not to want to play the exposed D in de for 12 more points (11.6 better value). But even if her rack is DEEEEIT (a possibility based on later turns), de is still strongly preferable.
>JJB: ?AABCIL N9 BA +16 269
#note 1:59 [0:40] JJB does not pull up tailback 92/74 or abapical 78 in the allotted time (up to 39.9 better value), and makes a reasonable dump, given the proviso that alba/at 14 is one higher (he misscores 13 as 16, which both players should have been alert to). Quackle also likes abaci/ar 26 for its points. More important, JJB has given himself just 40 seconds to play out the hoped-for bingo and the rest of the game, a classic time bind that he is still learning to master.
>NB: DEET I6 E...E +7 162
#note ~0:21 [~17:45] NB now chooses the hasty vowel dump emote 7 instead of (say) wee/bel/lea 18. She realizes only after hitting the clock that she has set up significant hooks. If willing to ditch the T, she gets 15.1 total better value from etwee/it/bel/lea.
>JJB: ?ACEILR 5C CALIbER +74 343
#note 0:15 [0:25] Happy to have a quick release from his time bind, JJB places the first playable bingo that comes to mind (the quadruple is valeric or calorie, 16 more). He then focuses, repeatedly, on using NB's time to prepare his choices.
>NB: DNOT 5K NO. +19 181
#note ~2:50 [~14:55] NB now has the tiles to slot toned/noted 6f 30, evaluating 10.7 better than this second-best placement.
>JJB: EEEGNPS 11K PEENS +27 370
#note 0:06 [0:19] JJB has his first choice ready, neglecting neeps and bap for 2 more. He did not work out peg 4d 25 (10.8 better) or peage d3 16, so it's unclear if he'd have a timely second choice if his first were blocked.
>NB: DEIPT C1 DEPI.T +22 203
#note ~3:45 [~11:10] Good choice! Dep 4d 24 might have better synergy (rated at 0.7 diff).
>JJB: DEGGOSU H1 GOUG.D +36 406
#note 0:09 [0:10] JJB gets the top play down quickly, but again it is unclear if forcing a second-string option would have been injurious to him.
>NB: AN 12K AN +12 215
#note ~4:20 [~6:50] Here the preferable dump is ana d3 14.
>JJB: AEKOQST C13 Q.A +24 430
#note 0:01 [0:09] Deciding to leave no room for judgment, JJB goes for whatever is visibly highest at the moment opponent hits the clock, gripping the possible tiles on the rack for readiness. In this case the two best plays seen were qat 12j (blocked) and qua c13 24, so down goes qua. JJB was oblivious to his own setup of quake 3g 29, though its ranking was only 3.2 better. Miraculously he still retains some of his last 40 seconds.
>NB: U 3B U. +4 219
#note ~2:50 [~4:00] NB continues to give JJB time to think. If she happens to be holding GINRSUU, suturing is available; otherwise, she is recommended to play about 5 tiles, generally in 1a, b6, or row 13 (including unguis 13j). Leaving 5 in the bag rather than 1 does not help bingo chances; the -ing is probably tempting her, but Quackle would ditch it in words like auding or rueing in many cases.
>JJB: EHKORST 4B H.KE +41 471
#note 0:02 [0:07] NB's choice adds 5 points to JJB's and Quackle's best choice. Also available was column A, where keto 32 is questionably rated just 0.1 above kosher 56. If his first choice had not worked out each time, the time pressure would have been overwhelming.
>NB: IU 6B U. +4 223
#note ~1:10 [~2:50] Now the bag having 2 tiles instead of 6 is a different factor. If her rack is AGINRSU or GIINRSU, ut is ranked as the best play! Auding only works if she retains an S, while other plays there like dui or gadi also have applicability. But opponent is able to block a single lane such as arising/raising (airings doesn't go). With tiles unseen, Quackle prefers dui by 1.1.
>JJB: FINORST A5 FORINTS +83 554
#note 0:07 [0:00] Suddenly JJB's spotting of forints has applicability and he has just enough time to see the hook, throw all the tiles, announce a (correct) score, and hit the clock in 7 seconds. No need to worry about throwing an F for 13 or cashing hiker with forint 30 or rif 26.
>NB: AGIINRS 15G S.AIRING +60 283
>NB: AGIINRS -- -60 223
#note ~1:46 [1:04] With only one tile on opponent's rack, NB now must simply make the best static play, which would be aiding/riding/siding 27; opponent then has dual outs for 6+4, net of 17. NB instead takes the risk of phonying and possibly getting 10 spread from opponent's clock. Possible net, 60+2+10=+72 (reward 45); or 0-6-16=-22 (risk 39). Approximately even, she should only chance it if she is willing to forgo the spread, and in this tournament JJB and Andy Hoang have already shown that spread will be key.
>JJB: E N9 ...E +6 560
#note 0:00 [0:00] NB starts JJB's clock, but JJB has had a few seconds' presence of mind to be ready to stop it immediately for automatic challenge, and it still reads 0:00 afterward. Successful, he then asks NB if he needs to restart it for his turn, and so he takes another dive at 0:00 to plunk down the E from his other hand, hoping it's one of those clocks that gives a grace second at -0:00. It turns out the 0:00 reading holds! This makes seven big plays and a challenge, including two bingos, all in 40 seconds, an unparalleled performance. The spread is unbelievable.
>JJB: (AGIINRS) +16 576
#note NB had no lack of trying, but the bingo didn't come together and her plays and timing kept working well with JJB's. Known points available: JJB 26, NB 55. Overall points available: JJB 96.3, NB 118.8+. |
