| Player 1 |
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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 CP Cathy Poole
#player2 JJB John J. Bulten
>CP: OTW H7 TWO +12 12
#note ~1:00 [~24:00] This tournament is officially called the National Prelims due to its immediacy to nationals, meaning despite its size it counts as an "early early bird", and like the other birds is a minor national championship. It is hotly sought by the top three seeds, who are very close in ratings, Andy Hoang (organizer), David Weisberg (club assistant), and JJB (Florida challenger). Rules require no repeated pairings, two top prizes, and a class prize for the top player in the lower half of seeds. First three pairings are staggered, and so, while the top seeds are likely to win heavily, spread results will be fun to watch. CP has many opening options and selects vertical simplicity with a hopeful vowel to the double (wot 8g or h7 only adds 2.4 in static value).
>JJB: ABEEFNT I6 BEEF +31 31
#note ~2:00 [~23:00] JJB takes time to find the best response; feeb scores 3 less with no advantage. Alternatives tempt, but no 7s or 8s are in this rack.
>CP: GJO J5 JOG +23 35
#note ~0:23 [23:37] CP signals uncertainty about proceeding in this way but there is little alternative to starting a ladder.
>JJB: AEINNOT K4 NOT +29 60
#note ~1:54 [21:06] Enation is spotted but unavailable. JJB ignores the great synergy of keeping a T with his leave, an increase of 10.4 that overcomes the 7-point loss in retaining the T (i.e. no k4 is 3.4 better). Correct estimation of leaves is essential for these narrow decisions.
>CP: EO L4 OE +18 53
#note 1:07 [22:30] CP immediately dumps vowels. This play makes a lovely valid crossword (all letters are keyed), but for strategic play many fewer opportunities are available than a wide-open crisscross board.
>JJB: AEEIINX H7 ...NIE +10 70
>JJB: AEEIINX -- -10 60
#note 2:12 [18:54] JJB continues to use up the clock but makes an interesting choice. Few might accept this phony spelling of twoonie, but it scores better by 0.2, if retained, than the best exchange (leaving AEINX for 7.3). Passing or losing a challenge is behind by 11.8 (the risk), but the value above best valid play is only 0.2 (the reward). Ewe 8g is the best play besides passing. JJB's instinct is correct that an unchallenged phony is best, but he also argues that a lost challenge would be beneficial for encouraging later challenges, and "involuntary pass" would not be much worse than playing. However, this supposition must be a dead-on reading of his opponent, because with these values environmental factors must be entirely accurate for the judgment to be validated. CP challenges after 3 seconds.
>CP: CHI 3L HIC +22 75
#note ~0:30 [~22:00] CP then continues the ladder and maintains a positive lead. Ich/noh scores alike but the I is much harder to play through.
>JJB: AEEIINX N2 A.INI +18 78
#note 2:10 [16:44] CP has set up an excellent I dump and JJB spots it rapidly with many options for the next turn.
>CP: AH O1 HA +17 92
#note ~1:33 [20:27] Neglecting ah for 3 more, CP appears to be fishing and this strategy will depend on more opening plays than just acini.
>JJB: BEEGISX 10C IBEXES +38 116
#note 1:46 [14:58] Excellent find. Also can hook shoe, static leave identical but dynamic opportunities much greater for opponent. JJB has spotted the right plays to reach this slightly comfortable lead.
>CP: EV E9 V.E +12 104
#note ~1:12 [~19:15] Vex adds a point but does not add the extra openness needed for CP to bingo. (Memo: Board vision must include ability to reuse high-pointers.) At about 37 seconds in, JJB, having overdrawn, loses the Y of TUY.
>JJB: AGKOOTU O5 OTAKU +31 147
#note ~1:18 [~13:30] JJB sees the best play, 9.9 ahead of took in the same spot, and has relative confidence, but has only one concern: why doesn't its plural come up as an anagram of outask, which he is also confident does not anagram? The hindsight answer is that otaku is a mass noun for young people and takes no S. With this one trepidation JJB takes the risk on the excellent score and leave.
>CP: LPU - +0 104
#note ~0:19 [18:56] Indeed CP falls for the bait, holding after about 8 seconds and challenging after 11 more. The tension at the challenge computer the second time is palpable, but JJB moves into a commanding position. Up/veep evaluates at 20.3 better than challenging a valid play.
>JJB: ?EGNORS 12D ERiNGOS +75 222
#note ~3:04 [10:26] JJB spots oranges, eringos, and governs, all 75 (same as eryngos and presong, which are better for style). It's a strong lead that can still be overcome depending on draws and choices.
>CP: LPU H12 .ULP +21 125
#note 0:51 [18:05] Solid.
>JJB: AADEIIR 14F AA.II +9 231
#note 1:33 [8:53] Here the flashy I dump has a decent leave, DER 8.3, but ai i14 leaves ADEIR 10.8, and only sacrifices one point (better by 1.5). Ava 19 competes for points but allows heavy whipsaw risk.
>CP: AO 9D A.O +19 144
#note 1:02 [17:03] CP opts to capitalize on the high-point, high-risk vowel dump.
>JJB: ADDENRV 8A VEND +38 269
#note 1:22 [7:31]
>CP: A F14 .A +2 146
#note 1:33 [15:30] Awe 8g for 6.
>JJB: ?AACDER M6 DRACEnA +67 336
#note 3:15 [4:16] JJB pulls the second blank and opts for a rare studied word in hopes of drawing another challenge, not seeing any of the higher scorers such as acerated and headrace for 74.
>CP: G I11 G. +3 149
#note 1:38 [13:52] CP continues one-tile fishes without noting alternatives like gox 11.
>JJB: DFILRRY 13A FIRRY +35 371
#note 0:27 [3:49] In a hurry now, JJB spots an excellent synergy.
>CP: NOU - +0 149
#note 0:14 [13:38] Fou 18 is best for known tiles, and recognizable to CP, and rates 26.9 better than passing. However, CP is now in a bind about needing to challenge. JJB is more concerned about veery (a noun rather than an adjective), but CP only challenges firry. Both are good.
>JJB: DDELLRW L12 DREW +30 401
#note 1:22 [2:27] Now in control yet with an unstable rack, JJB has many subtle choices about endgame leaves. Weld 32 is 8.1 better on score and undoubling (L remains in the bag), while wild 16 is also recommended on holding the E. In board vision, the double-double line should be considered equivalent to a triple-triple square without a double word.
>CP: NOU 15L .OUN +21 170
>CP: NOU -- -21 149
#note 1:49 [11:49] CP misremembers under pressure. These tiles only make noun 5, while fou is still 26.9 ahead. JJB challenges in 3 seconds.
>JJB: DELLLPT 15K D.ELL +27 428
#note 0:10 [2:27] Now the correct undoubling.
>CP: NOU A13 .OU +18 167
#note ~1:49 [~10:00]
>JJB: LMNPQTY B12 L.MP +28 456
#note ~0:47 [~1:30] Drawing into no vowels, JJB has great synergy with CP's vowels. He leaves two tiles in the bag, which is near optimal because it narrows CP's options.
>CP: M 15F .M. +11 178
#note ~1:21 [8:39] CP declines to depart from the fishing strategy and finds a maximal placement for M. However, now she holds at most one vowel, so leaving one tile in the bag is not likely to be enough of an endgame strategy alone.
>JJB: IINQTTY J10 QI. +35 491
#note ~0:08 [1:22]
>CP: ENRSSTZ 10L S.Z +32 210
#note 1:38 [7:01] Sez/rez 32 both properly allow the same two outplay lanes for 14 or 8; nothing else comes close. So this is the correct out, but it requires getting the lane right afterward!
>JJB: INTTUY B5 TYN. +15 506
#note 0:59.2 [0:22.8] CP has also blocked the lucrative double tyin/qi/gin. Tyne thus has the highest score minus leave, but there's a risk that CP might decline to go out and block both a3 and c3.
>CP: ENRST 5B .RENTS +12 222
>CP: ENRST -- -12 210
#note 0:34 [6:27] CP needs to hook shoe with nerts, rents, or terns (14+6=+20), but unaccountably puts down trents* quickly with lesser score (which nets 0-8-10=-18 instead when automatically challenged). JJB is now ready to claim the 38 extra points by winning the fourth consecutive challenge after setting himself up to lose the first one.
>JJB: ITU C3 TUI +8 514
>JJB: (ENRST) +10 524
#note 0:04.8 [0:18.0] Both players made a large number of optimal plays, but the blanks and challenges, plus more accurate play in the clutch, gave JJB a 314-point blowout. Very minimal variances, the largest of which was a deliberate phony for successful broader purposes, bode well for further optimal play. Known points available: JJB 7, CP 54. Overall points available: JJB 31.8, CP 130.5+. |
