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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Jon_Shreve Jon Shreve
#player2 Stefan_Kac Stefan Kac
>Jon_Shreve: OON 8F ONO +6 6
>Stefan_Kac: AEEIION G6 EO.IAN +8 8
#note 10 July, 2022
Word Cup
Game 13
Sim prefers exchanging, or 9G OI. I thought that seeding the board with hotspots made this a worthy gamble after ONO has indicated a lower-point leave for opp which may well contain duplicates of the new floaters, and has afforded opp only three bites at the apple. And, for me the pool is *already* conso- and scoring-heavy, even now, marginally perhaps, but enough so that after ONO and five bites I feel like I am on the whole likely to land in a somewhat stronger position over the course of several turns than if I score nothing and pray to draw into a bingo from this bag.
>Jon_Shreve: AEO?FLN 11E FO.TANEl +90 96
>Stefan_Kac: EEIIUDR 6B UREID. +13 21
#note Sims well behind (T)EIID, E(T)UI, (l)IEU, UREIDE at 10J, and some others. After opp has fully turned over while I haven't yet sniffed an ess, I wasn't in the mood for ETUI or lIEU...TEIID keeps the U...UREIDE seems reckless...etc. I also thought this might preempt board-closing plays from opp. In the moment this def felt like a weak play and/or whiff, but now I think I'm ok with it.
>Jon_Shreve: EUDR H11 .RUED +21 117
>Stefan_Kac: EIHLLNT F10 H.TEL +31 52
#note Sim likes H(O)LT 4 better, preserving -E(D) bingos and limiting exposure. I thought there were plenty of other lanes and some EEs floating on the board, but sim says HOLT bingos much more often and in this case it's hard to argue with that.
>Jon_Shreve: EOK 5D OKE +31 148
>Stefan_Kac: AIOOLTW 4A ALOW +28 80
#note Again, OW bingos fully twice as often as ALOW. Just didn't think AIOLT was that great and so went for turnover instead. Obviously a mistake.
>Jon_Shreve: UDR A1 DUR. +15 163
>Stefan_Kac: AIOCQST 12D QA. +29 109
>Jon_Shreve: IG 13C GI +17 180
>Stefan_Kac: EIOCMNS M9 MESONIC +89 198
>Jon_Shreve: BG 14L B.G +12 192
>Stefan_Kac: AEEFMRR 4F REFRAME +86 284
#note Not at all a straightforward decision between here and L3. Two point is two points, I guess.
>Jon_Shreve: AY 3A .AY +24 216
>Stefan_Kac: AEIIONT 12K NA.I +12 296
#note I(C)ON is a pretty huge miss.
>Jon_Shreve: IUBCST 15A CUBITS +42 258
>Stefan_Kac: AEIOJNT J2 JI.O +27 323
#note I'm living off the map this game, but I think this one was correct. My gut tells me that against this caliber of opponent I need to chase a bingo for myself rather than blocking one lane at a time, with some equity likely going up in flames, and mere prayers that opp doesn't hit anything for several turns in a row. So, there are several options to play down column n and score more than my play, but not nearly enough to outrun, plus the leaves are much worse and the bag is a little wonky. I liked turning over less, keeping the leave that bingos by far the most often, and leaving the friendliest lanes alone.
>Jon_Shreve: EIVY 2J .IVEY +36 294
>Stefan_Kac: AEINPTZ 10I ZIP +36 +359
#note Sim says I bingo a whole lot after M1 Z(E)P and hardly at all after ZIP. I'm pretty bad at the chess part of this game, so I played static scrabble here. Fourply sim has this as a loss of ~19 in equity and ~10 in win%! ZAP and ZEP also do much better than ZIP, on which point I am at a loss.
>Jon_Shreve: DGLS M1 G.LDS +28 322
>Stefan_Kac: AEHLNTX N9 EX +54 413
#note I thought emptying the bag here was more likely to lose. There are in fact some row one things in the pool that score a ton. With this EX I make a bingo much more likely, hence conceding much in equity and spread, but I go ahead by 91 and guarantee 30ish points next turn, which looked like enough. This play does land at the top of a fourply sim. cp prefers just (E)X, which I don't follow at all: doesn't a bingo off the D beat me after that?
>Jon_Shreve: AE?PRST O3 cARPETS +82 404
>Stefan_Kac: AHLNTTW H1 HAL. +30 443
#note Missed the V-stick.
>Jon_Shreve: V J9 V.. +6 410
>Jon_Shreve: (NTTW) +14 424
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