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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Josh_Sokol Josh Sokol
#player2 Arie_Sinke Arie Sinke
>Josh_Sokol: BDMOPQS -IUUU +0 0
#note exchanged keeping MOS. Close with MS, MODS, it's a wash. #questionable
>Arie_Sinke: ABEFRTT 8D FATTER +26 26
#note Exchanging the F is an interesting possibility. I have a seven with AEILOSUY?, as well as a variety of eights. It wins a sim, but I would have a very hard time doing it.
>Josh_Sokol: MOORRST H7 R.STROOM +61 61
>Arie_Sinke: BEGIIKU I13 KEG +28 54
#note I may have significantly overestimated the value of blocking RESTROOMS. A more conventional play like KRUBI 11G or BOUGIE 12F sims better. This is excessively paranoid. I kind of knew it was wrong when I played it, but I just can't help myself.
>Josh_Sokol: EHLNOVW J10 VOWEL +35 96
>Arie_Sinke: ABIIITU F8 .IBIA +13 67
#note This actually looks pretty reasonable; better than exchanging, if barely.
>Josh_Sokol: AAADHNO E10 AHA +28 124
>Arie_Sinke: CINOPTU E2 OPUNTI. +18 85
#note A number of plays are reasonable here. This creates a number of lines in the northwest that could prove useful to me later. PUMELO 14F for 16 creates a high scoring line and also forks the board by creating an S hook. I like my play and PUMELO best of all the options.
>Josh_Sokol: ADNNOTU D1 UDON +23 147
>Arie_Sinke: ACCIRST F2 CAT +31 116
#note Josh's defensive play blocked ACROSTIC. This is the only real option here, and the SCAT hook favors me with an S in hand and a deficit.
>Josh_Sokol: AAINPRT 12J .AP +16 163
#note no idea what to do here. I took forever. Maybe (W)RAP to set up WRAPT. I hated (P)RAU because of all the extra bingos it gave back. It still sims best. #strategysmall
>Arie_Sinke: CIILRSW 1F SWIRL +30 146
#note I could fish with something like WILT 6B. But with a deficit that isn't too huge I'm happy to take the points and spend the S.
>Josh_Sokol: AAGINRT D8 .ANG +20 183
#note (L)A sims best at J1. Not doing that.
>Arie_Sinke: CDILNQZ 6C DI.Z +34 180
#note Just taking the points here, looks best.
>Josh_Sokol: AABDIRT 1A TAB. +18 201
>Arie_Sinke: CEELLNQ 3C C...L +20 200
#note On a board this closed, I just couldn't resist the 20 points. I don't know if this is the play here; I may prefer to simply exchange, and probably exchange down to two tiles to greaten my odds of getting an S or a blank. Josh is very likely to have an S or a blank after WAP, and WAPS is a huge threat; my odds are best if I can beat him to the spot. Sims prefer exchanging narrowly.
>Josh_Sokol: ?ADEIIR M9 AIRsIDE +74 275
>Arie_Sinke: ?EELMNQ 10L Q. +11 211
#note Sims seem to like playing QuEEN 15K or N6 for 39 or 41, respectively. Apparently, the E spot is really important, possibly because of the J? If Josh hits that spot with the J it will be difficult for me to win if I bingo. I bingo 75% of the time after QI, which is great, but a bingo may not get me into the lead here, and if Josh plays defensively he will block many of my bingos. The other choice that the sim really likes is 15L NEEM for 21; and I can see the merit in that; take out the spot now, fish off the Q next turn, and hopefully bingo on turn three. The sim doesn't realize that Josh is likely to play defensively, though, and if I don't bingo next turn the board may not be what I need. I don't really have a clue what to do here; I may need to just take NEEM and hope to draw a U and get some lucky bingo immediately.
>Josh_Sokol: DEEOSVY N7 VOES +25 300
>Arie_Sinke: ?EEFLMN 15L F.ME +39 250
#note VOES was not the sort of play I would have liked to see go down. I don't like my odds after FEME, but it doesn't look like there's anything better.
>Josh_Sokol: DEEJOUY 2A OY +22 322
>Arie_Sinke: ?EILNNO N13 NO. +18 268
#note I have very little hope here. I need to bank on drawing a nine from TO. A sim seems to marginally prefer DEN 14M instead, probably because there are 5 Es out, so I do better with ILNO? than EILN?. It's close at any rate.
>Josh_Sokol: DEEHJSU 13G J...D +28 350
>Arie_Sinke: ?EEIILN 7G I.E +11 279
#note Here I put all my hope on either a SWIRLS play or a nine from TO. My odds aren't great, and apparently there are no nines that I could possible get with EILN? in this pool. A sim to the end of the game suggests INLIER I3 as possibly slightly better. To me that seems very blockable, and with 1 in the bag Josh will almost certainly figure out how to block whatever I draw. IRE has the disadvantage of making SWIRLS plays easier to block. Unfortunately, it's the only way to fish off EI. I don't know what I could be doing better here. Even something as simple as SWIRLY would be a highly effective block.
>Josh_Sokol: EEHNRSU K11 H.. +24 374
#note I think maybe just HUE 6I. #questionable
>Arie_Sinke: ?EEILNX 8N .X +27 306
#note This does great in a sim. I need to hope Josh blocks the wrong spot, though.
>Josh_Sokol: EEENRSU 7G ...S +4 378
#note K1 SERENE is the safer win, but this also always wins, even though (SWIRL)INGLY comes close in some endgames :O
>Arie_Sinke: ?EEILNY K1 YEELIN +30 336
#note I give up here, but I actually still have a small (12.5%) chance of winning with the correct play. If I play YA at 9C, I bingo out with an R draw, and Josh can't do anything about the spot.
>Josh_Sokol: EEEGNRU J3 NEGU. +19 397
>Arie_Sinke: ?U 7L lU. +6 342
#note mU H3 is 11 here. Didn't think of COPALm.
>Arie_Sinke: (EER) +6 348
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