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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Jared_Cappel Jared Cappel
#player2 Jackson Jackson
>Jared_Cappel: CEE 8F CEE +10 10
>Jackson: AAMORSX 7G MAX +32 32
#note COXA sims about as well, and it's the type of play I want against Jared, keeping things more open. I think I should do that, even though I usually stick with MAX in most scenarios
>Jared_Cappel: EELLMOR 6H MORELLE +77 87
>Jackson: AAORRSZ O1 RAZORS +58 90
>Jared_Cappel: AEGN 5I GANE +29 116
>Jackson: ?ADGIII 4J GADI +27 117
#note I might want to do (AR)IA to open the bottom better. this sims about 7 ahead, definitely standard
>Jared_Cappel: EIQUVYY M3 Q. +22 138
>Jackson: ?AIITUY N1 AY +22 139
>Jared_Cappel: ACENOST M6 .ACTONES +74 212
>Jackson: ?IITUVY L12 TIVY +34 173
>Jared_Cappel: EU 8M .UE +15 227
>Jackson: ?EIIRTU F8 .RITIqUE +63 236
#note a bit scary after CUE but hoping he just has vowels
>Jared_Cappel: BEIOO 11C BOO.IE +16 243
>Jackson: DDDEFNT H10 D.FEND +45 281
>Jared_Cappel: INP 12B NIP +22 265
>Jackson: DINRTTV 14B VIRT. +16 297
#note I considerd TIDBIT seriously to guarantee that I could block SNIP next turn. after VIRTU I can draw an A to get a nice ?AD play that scores and blocks, but maybe that's too hopeful.
>Jared_Cappel: AKT N10 KAT +38 303
>Jackson: ?DFNNPT C11 ..F.D +22 319
#note FaD 13A, BIFID, and exchange down to NT? or ND? are the three main options, I think. An important question is how many of HHSS he has, and how often. I thought he might have missed the TETH hook with KAT, so I felt like it wasn't super likely it was a setup. NIP doesn't always keep an S by any means, but I think it very often does, since he wasn't down by a ton and he'd likely have some better scoring plays in that position. I put him on an S very likely and an H often enough, just out of sheer randomness it's around 50/50. From this, BIFID, the standard play, has big problems. It completely protects the SNIP hook and only draws 2 tiles towards TETH. There are some longterm advantages to keeping the blank, for dealing with bingoes and stealing games from a deficit, so I was relaly wary of playing FaD, especially with the large chance that he hits TETH immediately and is immediately favoured in the game. Exchanging is good to go for SSHH, cause even hitting one of those can make me favoured again with blank in hand. I think I prefer keeping ND? to NT? to save 13A plays with an A draw, which score well and block SNIP. I went with BIFID because I felt like I could try outrunning some TETH plays, or especially block then with plays like YOND, or try blocking SNIP on a future turn. I think I regret this line, since I'm really not favoured in this position, despite the blank. I like exchanging down to DN, but I'd appreciate others' analysis.
>Jared_Cappel: AGIORSS A8 GIROS +28 331
#note actual rack. I prefer YOGA or YOGI here, blocking TETH and keeping the Ss for SNIP, which is now well protected.
>Jackson: ?JNNPTU -JNPU +0 319
>Jared_Cappel: AHLL O12 HALL +44 375
>Jackson: ?BENTUW I12 EW +23 342
#note after EW I can draw BOTULIN, DUSTBIN, TUBULIN, SUBUNIT, TURBINE, and SUBTONE on column B with IO, IS, IU, SU, EI, EO, ES, and OS, which is 22/132 raw, but realistically slightly less given his range, since he doesn't have a W too often after HALL and often has the case S after GIROS. It doesn't hit anything on row 3 or 1. I also considered 1K UNBAR, which hits WIRETAP on row 3, but more importantly on column B, WHERETO, HOWBEIT, WETSUIT, STEWPOT, TAXWISE, WEBSITE, ENTWINE, UNWHITE, TOWLINE, and UNTWINE. Not gonna do the math but I trust it's less often I hit these than the bingoes after EW, since I'm drawing 3 instead of 2. However, UNBAR is definitely the nicer play for timing, since he can only block with one tile on the 2 row without emptying the bag. However, it runs a greater risk of being outrun when I do hit, since he can play 1 tile and let me bingo on the 2 row or B column, giving him good comebacks. I chose EW since I felt like my bingoes actually win when I hit them, at least most of the time. He can still only block wiht 2 tiles without emptying the bag, so he can't have huge plays, since even stuff like JOW/FEW gets outrun by an outbingo. Always appreciate thoughts.
>Jared_Cappel: EH J12 HE +20 395
>Jackson: ?BINNTU D10 B.. +7 349
#note Nothing seems to hit the 3 row or 1 row, so all my fishes are just for the B column. this hits UNCTION, NONSUIT, and UNTWINE. In all cases he can just block, so I have to hope he messes up.
>Jared_Cappel: AJOOSUW 3I JAW +33 428
>Jackson: ?INNPTU 1H PINNUl.. +30 379
>Jared_Cappel: OOSU 11C ......S +15 443
#note IODOUS is a sweet out
>Jackson: T J12 ..T +8 387
>Jackson: (OOU) +6 393
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