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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Keith_Hagel Keith Hagel
#player2 Stefan_Kac Stefan Kac
>Keith_Hagel: AEDJQRS -JQ +0 0
>Stefan_Kac: IIODPTZ -I +0 0
#note WGPO Phoenix
20 February, 2022
Game 11
Have been thinking a lot about bluffs and gambles in these situations, and it got the better of me here. Without having these specific thoughts at the time, the vague logic was something like: the gross point value of (ZIP)S is 15, which is probably a coupla points more than the 7-10 that the center square adds to a RETAIN bingo. To that, add the value of bluffing in the event that opp doesn't hit and has to consider sacrificing static equity to exchange again or play short. And to that, add the likelihood of getting more out of the Z on the second turn than the first.
On the way home that night, I realized that ZIP scores 28 and that's just too many scoreboard points to give up and not nearly scary enough in the floater department.
Also, going this far off the map here should probably be based on good knowledge of the opp, and I have zero knowledge of opp in this moment.
>Keith_Hagel: AEDHPRS 8C SHARPED +84 84
>Stefan_Kac: AIODPTZ F6 ZO.I +33 33
#note I'm a few weeks late getting back to these games...let's say I saw 7B DIAZO and didn't like the staircasey potential. ZO(R)I sims 2.5 worse.
>Keith_Hagel: IIONV C6 VI.ION +11 95
>Stefan_Kac: ADPRTTY B10 PATTY +44 77
>Keith_Hagel: EIBT 6F .IBET +18 113
>Stefan_Kac: EEBDJKR E7 J.KED +49 126
#note Whoops, this is a longtime pet phoney. Here it's a 3-point equity steal.
>Keith_Hagel: IOUGHNS K3 HOUSING +89 202
>Stefan_Kac: AEEBNRS 4G SEAB.RNE +72 198
>Keith_Hagel: UGLM A8 GLUM +31 233
>Stefan_Kac: EECQRRR -ECQRR +0 198
#note Agonized over the C. Didn't seem like it was essential given the shape of the board. Also have to imagine that I noticed the unseen blanks. But sim does much prefer keeping CER here.
>Keith_Hagel: AEIDDLL 3B DALLIED +76 309
>Stefan_Kac: EEIOLRT 11E .OLERITE +68 266
>Keith_Hagel: EIFNR H10 R.FINE +39 348
>Stefan_Kac: AEEOU?S M1 EUp.OEAS +66 332
>Keith_Hagel: IQ G13 QI +44 392
>Stefan_Kac: O?CGRRT 2F GROT +23 355
#note Pretty interesting constellation of choices here. I don't think I saw most of them. 2K CO(U)RT is pretty flashy. 2I ORC might be a better gamble than GROT since it gives back bingos rather than short scoring plays. I probably was clinging to the C and hearing voices about the G. But sim's fave of 1L C(E)RT looks just fine.
>Keith_Hagel: AMW 1H MAW +47 439
>Stefan_Kac: U?CNRTV J10 V.N +14 369
#note Blocking the X bomb and trying to keep (IN)CURvATE alive.
>Keith_Hagel: OOCFXWY 12L FOXY +52 491
>Stefan_Kac: AEU?CRT O5 CEnTAUR. +86 455
#note (IN)CURvATE is alive! But I am dead.
>Stefan_Kac: (AAOCNW) +22 477
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