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#player1 basesloaded basesloaded
#player2 kacattac kacattac
#description Created with Macondo
>basesloaded: ADEFMRR H4 FRAMED +32 32
>kacattac: AENSTVZ G6 ZETA +37 37
#note 27 January 2021
Club 44
woogles.io
Game 4
This sims best. Maybe I'll get faster at this someday, it took me way too long to work my way from ZA to ZEN to ZETA. They sim out in precisely that order.
>basesloaded: EORRRWY I8 WORRY +23 55
>kacattac: EINOOSV H12 OVEN +30 67
#note Somehow this sims a hair better than ENVI(R)OS, which I looked for and whiffed on. I hated OVEN actually, I think playing the dws-dws for 10 more is clearly better: you float good floaters to opp either way, and holding the S for TEW(S) bingos has diminished value when the overall leave is pretty bad, as it was here.
>basesloaded: AACENRU 14F CU. +11 66
>kacattac: DFIOPSU 10C POUFS +32 99
#note Sim massively prefers 4D POUF(F). I saw it but felt greedy. Arguments in favor of my play: neither option takes out the (TEW)S lane and opp has just made a surprisingly short/low-scoring play, hence if POUF(F) and POUFS are indeed the two best choices here, the choice between them is mostly about elementary score-leave and less about board dynamics. With all other esses and blanks unseen, I'm down to pig the points and burn an extra tile rather than clinging to the S for 6 less.
>basesloaded: AAEINRY 11I .AINY +16 82
>kacattac: DEIIMRS 4E MIS.IRED +78 177
#note Only bingo.
>basesloaded: AEENRSV I3 V.ES +25 107
#note SK butts in: opp goes totally off the map here, but it's a strong gamble. The sim's favorite plays are all pretty unappetizing and inhuman, e.g. 10M AVE, 5B NAVE. 11B VEENA scores and keeps well but clogs the board down a bingo+, and that is not the best idea. Knowing opp's game fairly well, this seems calculated to blow open the top of the board with I(VIES) plays later. This is very smart even though he doesn't (yet) have an I himself: I have just turned over my entire rack, and only a bingo in the IVIES spot is going to be appealing; non-bingos will either leave bigger openings or be low-scoring blocks. I of course take no heed of any of this in the moment and am merely perplexed that opp burned the S this way. This costs me dearly.
>kacattac: GIIILOT L7 OILI.G +16 193
#note Sim really likes TOILING instead. Turnover does have some value here, but I feel like it's asking for trouble to keep unbalancedly at this juncture, even drawing six tiles.
>basesloaded: AEINPRT D7 ATR.PINE +72 179
>kacattac: ?CGHIST C3 GITCH +39 232
#note Whiffing on the I(VIES) hook. At least I found this, it's better than 15A GHIS or CHIS.
>basesloaded: ADDLLWX B2 WAX +38 217
>kacattac: ?BJNSTU 15A JUTS +48 280
#note Because I still don't see the I(VIES) potential, this play is even more of a no-brainer. Even with knowledge of IVIES, the sim shows nothing competing with JUTS. Missing the bingo last turn sims out to a relatively small loss of equity, but that doesn't tell the whole story. I am in the driver's seat here with my rack, but my lead is now too small to make any huge sacrifices of score for defense. If I do see IVIES here, is it totally crazy to play K3 J(E)T for 28 less? Probably, but maybe not.
>basesloaded: DDIILLT E4 .ILD +21 238
>kacattac: ?ABBENO A1 BOB +32 312
#note Again, nothing comes close to this.
>basesloaded: ADILOTT 11C O.T +18 256
>kacattac: ?AAENOU L3 O.A +4 316
#note Nooow I see I(VIES), and I panic. Sim validates my panic to some extent but prefers 3L EAU to this. There are no hard blocks available here, just soft ones. I'm 90%+ to win, but it doesn't feel like it.
>basesloaded: ?ADEILT 2D DELTAIc +67 323
>kacattac: ?AEENQU 1G EN +14 330
#note FML. This does sim best. Now under 70% to win after being 90%+ for many turns running.
>basesloaded: AHKLNOR K3 L.K +28 351
>kacattac: ?AEEGQU 8K f.QUE +39 369
#note Not auto-generated but leaps to the top of the sim. An Ulu query confirms that there are no eights in the pool here with the U, E or N floaters, hence no reason not to cash this in now and try to go out next turn.
>basesloaded: AEEHNOR M11 .ORE +17 368
#note SK notes: my only outs were GEN(U)A and AGEN(E) through FIQUE. Opp can cut spread quite a bit by blocking these, though he can't win.
>kacattac: AEGN 14K AG.NE +12 381
>kacattac: (AEHN) +14 395
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