| Player 1 |
|
#player1 kacattac kacattac
#player2 zetetic zetetic
>kacattac: DGHOOSS H7 HOG +14 14
#note ISC game with lots of interesting successes and failures. Opponent identifies himself in his info (props) but is unfamiliar to me.
Here I did a 4-ply sim at 16000+ iterations, because it looked super volatile and stuff was still jumping around after the first 2000 iterations. This ends up 6th best and -4. I'm just not going to play HOODS: it floats, it telegraphs, it keeps the G, it leaves no hook for my held S. 8G GOSH is more interesting because it floats the S not in a TWS lane and keeps the more appetizing ODS; but it opens no S hook and sounds an even clearer bell tone. I guess I hate it least among the choices which outsim my play. GOODS is just is a worse version of HOODS. Why do HOGS and SHOG sim 1.5 worse than GOSH when I am much more likely to be able to use the S hook than my opponent is? (Later: FML, SHOGI is a word. This will haunt future sims. But what about HOGS?)
When I was a newb and ignorant of most long-term strategic considerations, I would have played HOODS in about half a second. I'm going to ruminate on that for a bit.
>zetetic: ACEHMYZ G8 HAZY +29 29
#note Various column I plays forming (H)M. I find these early positions with many choices to be extremely challenging.
>kacattac: DFOSSST 6H SOFT +23 37
#note A 5pt mistake against I6 FOSS and outsimmed decisively (2 ply) by no fewer than nine other plays, the top four of which play down the I column. Tack an S onto the end of my play and it sims 2 better. I've read that duplicate esses hurt bingo chances much like any other duplicate except EE. But again, do I really want to float one here knowing that's the only way my opponent will get a taste? Or is floating the T in the DWS-DWS lane pretty much just as bad? Also, I think I missed that there is a S(HO) or T(HO) hook at F8 which could stay open, hence there is less need to create hookability with this play than I was thinking. That said, FOSS changes the hookability to something which I don't yet hold, and that sucks, right? Ostensibly, then, the score+leave difference is just that much greater and again I should have kept calm and played newbie scrabble. -5 (-9)
>zetetic: ACDEEEM I5 D.ME +26 55
#note H11
>kacattac: CDLQSSX -DLQX +0 37
#note Fun. I also considered keeping CS, which sims about the same. 9E CL(AG)S is the only non-exchange in Quackle's list and wins the sim by 2 over some other exchanges and by 4 over my exchange. The top exchange keeps SSX. I was halfway to that conclusion, but I like to bingo and C is good for that. I can't imagine a mood or scenario where I decide to play through this. For better or worse. -4 (-13)
>zetetic: AABCEEG 11C CAGE. +22 77
#note Sims best among many close choices.
>kacattac: CGILSST F6 GIST +20 57
#note Unfortunately I'm just not going to see SHOGI/ZIGS. After that, L3 CIGS beats my play by 3.5. It's better, but is it that much better? I don't love parting with my C for just 2 extra points. (Hey experts, what's the math on CC eights? Seems like there are a boatload of them) I definitely did not like that my play restricts (for now) the top left; that is its biggest downside. But CLS can totes hit. -3.5, with defiance. (-16.5)
>zetetic: ABEIINW 12D WIN +27 104
#note Sims best by a lot.
>kacattac: CILMOSU 5I .OUM +23 80
#note I am already fatiguing and not enjoying the grind over marginalities. I hate my options, including this. But it does win a 4-ply sim by 4 over L4 MUSIC. Giving him an A (which is, like, for sure), a 2-ply sim yields a much lower relative value but still a decisive edge in win%. (-16.5)
>zetetic: ?ABEIRT 4K BA +21 125
#note Yeeek. He nails this in a live tournament.
>kacattac: CEIILST 6D CI. +6 86
#note Massive mistake borne of fatigue and frustration. (SHOG)I and I(C)TIC (C10) are major league finds which I have studied but which have subsequently sunk into an inaccessible region of my brain. Failing that, 3L LI is plenty good enough and very accessible. -7 (-23.5)
>zetetic: ?EFINRT D2 INFe.TER +76 201
#note Scores 91 at C7. Recent evidence suggests I would miss this too.
>kacattac: EILPRST 8A PIL. +18 104
#note FML J8 RESPLIT. Only bingo, and another casualty of neural disuse. My play is third-best to this and (Z)IP/(SHOG)I. -25.5 (-49)
>zetetic: ADEJOPU 3J JAPED +43 244
#note Sims best. He can also hold the D.
>kacattac: DEIRSTV J8 DIVERTS +80 184
#note Breathe...
>zetetic: AAEEEOU -AAEEOU +0 244
>kacattac: ?IKLLNR B6 KR.LL +21 205
#note 13B KILN sims 7.5 better, 5C L(E)K 5 better. KR(I)LL at 2B was typed out and ready to go at one point, but I decided that this was more volatility than I want. If my deficit was even 10 more, maybe I play it up there instead. As it is, I have noticed that quite often I approach a deficit of this size by spewing openings all over the board, and quite often this ends with the opponent using one of these many openings to bingo out and win by 100. Since I have the blank and the bag is a little wonky, ideally I can actually use this turn to close some lanes with a balancing play, then close another lane next turn with a bingo. If I was a good player, then I would have noticed that 13B KILN accomplishes exactly this, significantly restricting column 1 and row 14 while scoring and balancing near-ideally. This I can figure out. I actually can't figure out why KRILL at 2B should be 3 better than where I played it. I feel like they're equal...equally bad, I guess. -7.5 (-56.5)
>zetetic: AEEEEIY A10 AIYEE +14 258
#note Quackle chides, but its preferred plays all give back stupid-easy openings that are perfect losers. I don't know where you find the onions to play this at 13A with Q(A)ID and Q(A)TS in the pool. At M5 I guess you're counting on bingoing back after the easy bingo you're giving away? What's a frail human to do? The options here are terrible. This seems defensible.
>kacattac: ?AEINSU 3A gUA.INES +66 271
#note I 6-plied this and let it cooook. This play beats out all others except M1 UN(E)ASIER. I didn't see it, and again I don't know how smart it is for either player to open a giant Q spot right now. All bingos here give something back; this one seems strongest in that regard.
>zetetic: EEEELRW K11 WEE +26 284
#note Tough draw again, this sims best.
>kacattac: AOQRRTU 14A .QUATOR +36 307
#note Sims best by 2pts/4% over 13G QUO(TE)R.
>zetetic: BEELNRU L10 NEB +26 310
#note Quackle likes A1 BE(G)UN or L12 BLUR.
>kacattac: ADINORX 15B INRO +23 330
#note Quackle doesn't auto-generate this play, but it is almost 98% to win, outsimming 2A AX by 2.5pts and 4+%. I save AX for next turn and force him to account for it. I don't see 5E yet; fortunately for me it is decisively third-best here. He probably has the other E and no scoring, so if I block longish underlaps down here it's almost impossible for him to outscore me even with a V stick. Overall I don't deserve to win this game, but my late-game strategy does.
>zetetic: ELOORTU A1 LU.E +12 322
>kacattac: AADNOVX 5C V.X +42 372
#note Total whiff on N2 A(D)DAX. A good endgame player has already noticed last turn that this was available in the pool. When I am in a pleasant mood and haven't run my clock down, I do see things like this. Meaning, almost never.
>zetetic: OORT M7 TORO +8 330
>zetetic: (AADNO) +12 342
|
