| Player 1 |
|
#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Jackson Jackson
#player2 Cesar Cesar
>Jackson: DEGLOPR H4 PLEDGOR +78 78
>Cesar: BDEFIRR 4H .REBID +22 22
#note I like the idea of opening and stuff, but REIF is probably fine. I don't think an immediate parallel really closes the board long term here. FIBR(E) is also thematic, going for a bingo. This sims surprisingly badly, I don't haate it
>Jackson: AAKMORT 3J MAKO +40 118
#note damn, starting off the series very poorly! missing KERATOMA.
>Cesar: ABEFRSU 5B SURFAB.E +78 100
>Jackson: AAQRSTT B2 QAT. +26 144
#note tough call here between QAT(S) and QATS/PLEDGORS. I'm not up by too much now, so the extra points aren't mandatory. ARST isn't amazing here, but I do have the S lane that isn't likely going away. Average 12 more nextturn, plus the better rack when I don't hit. Looks worth it by a bit
>Cesar: AELNTUV 6H .VENTUAL +71 171
>Jackson: AINRSTT 8A STARTIN. +80 224
>Cesar: ?AGOOTZ 7B AZO +47 218
>Jackson: AEEEHOY O4 HO.EY +45 269
#note Damn I missed EYEHOLE! Ofc risky with SS?? out, but 6 points and a better leave make it well worth it. The onnnnly way it's not worth it is if he took a long time on azo, suggesting a blank. But even then, might still be since the S is a much bigger worry than the blank.
>Cesar: ?EEGOTW 6E EW +31 249
>Jackson: ACEEIJV D1 JIVE. +46 315
>Cesar: ?DEGOOT A8 .TEGODOn +80 329
>Jackson: ACEIISU 1D .UICE +42 357
>Cesar: ?AINOSU N8 AcINOUS +71 400
>Jackson: AEILMNS 10D MINE.ALS +64 421
#note damn quack really prefers menials, both of our averages are raised by about the same amount apparently... very surprised by this, maybe I'm overestimating the value of the 15 row after menials.
>Cesar: CEFGILR 11C LIFER +34 434
>Jackson: DHINPTX 1D .....D +16 437
#note I think this play may be a decent looking theme, but just isn't enough points at this score. The idea is that if I leave 1 in the bag, he can quite easily do an out in two and win after PIX or PHT. Leaving 2 in the bag makes it harder for him to do an out in two, and if I can do an out in two I'll often win. The issue is that I probably need to draw a vowel to do an out in two, and he still might be able to after JUICE if his rack is balanced (playing 5-6 tiles leaving himself with 3-4).
I could also do XI to leave 1 in the bag, but I felt that was possibly a worse version of PHT or PIX. Although emptying the bag gives him the full rack information to block my best plays, my average best sequence is worse after XI since I'll get XI + one more move, rather than PHT + X bomb or PIX + one more move. XI would only be better if he wasn't able to do an out in two with 1 in the bag, or if I was able to block his best play after I had full rack knowledge. Without delving in super technically, my gut is that the timing of XI isn't worth it - it's 2 in the bag or bust.
I also have SPHINX, trying to do an out in two myself, but DT plus 3 tiles don't look too promising here, since most plays will be on the bottom and blockable. SPHINX is definitely worse for out-in-2s than PHT or PIX.
Finally one tile plays like JUICED or ZAX. If Cesar does an out in two after JUICED, I'm getting one more play, hopefully something like PAX or POX at best, totalling 486. He'll get 14 from my rack, so he needs 39 in two plays to win. This isn't a guarantee, since a lot of his out in two plays will be longer words that play more tiles, and score less. DRAYING may suck but it's not all that common. Still, these are best case scenarios - if I don't draw a vowel i'm kinda fucked. ZAX doesn't seem to have the same upside as JUICED, although it allows for a bit more endgame flexibility. The hope with JUICED is that I draw a vowel and he doesn't do an out in two, and then I can win with an out in two of my own. Maybe ZAX could be more flexible for consonant draws cause I save HATPIN at I9.
If I play PHT, I probably average more over my two turn sequence (I assume he can always do in out in two when I empty the bag), 33 then an X play, 46 at best but maybe in the mid 30s. PIX sets up H?ND plays for 37, meaning I probably get to leave the B column formyself, for 30 point plays. if I get 72 over the two turns, that's 493 total, minus an expected 8-10 from my rack, putting him at 444. He needs about 50 points between two plays to win after that. Seems pretty possible, although I might end up with a better play than a B column play.
Between JUICED and PIX, I think PIX is the call, hoping he can't have a great out in two. JUICED seems too reliant on drawing a vowel to have a shot at winning. This is just a soft analysis though, without getting into hard numbers it's an open question.
>Cesar: ACGIRWY B12 WAY +36 470
>Jackson: HINOPTX I9 H.INT +22 459
#note happy to find the only win! I was close to playing SPHINX, but that won't do it. gotta block CLINGER and CRINGES while doing the best out in two possible. this saves 2M POX too, so blocking on the O column isn't breezy for him.
>Cesar: CEGINR 3A C.R.ING +30 500
>Jackson: OPX O13 POX +42 501
>Jackson: (E) +2 503
|
