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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Winter Winter
#player2 Arie Arie
>Winter: CEEGORT 8D CORTEGE +76 76
>Arie: AGHLNWX J5 AXL. +27 27
#note GNHW does not forbode well - but AXLE is just too many points to pass up for some other marginally better but still bad leave.
>Winter: DEIJO I2 EJIDO +33 109
>Arie: DGHNRUW K1 WRUNG +28 55
#note This looks fine.
>Winter: ANT 3I .A.NT +24 133
>Arie: BDEEGHK 1K .EDGE +33 88
#note I didn't see BEDECK D4 and it looks like it's probably an improvement; BHK is quite weak notwithstanding the small positional merit of taking out the W that WEDGE offers. BOKEH E7 is also a possibility.
>Winter: ADOW 7E WOAD +22 155
>Arie: BHKOORZ 4D BORZO. +36 124
#note This looks fine.
>Winter: EFRT 5B TREF +28 183
>Arie: DHHIKLP D8 .HILD +22 146
#note LID 9H looks like it may be slightly better. It scores 4 more and keeps HHPK instead of HPK - I guess when you're leaving a non-bingoing leace anyhow having the extra H doesn't hurt you that much. Also, creating the E hook on CHILD doens't really help me. I do like it that CHILD creates some long-term volatility - but for 1.5 points of equity I'm not sure that it's worth it.
>Winter: ACNNT 10D .NCANT +14 197
>Arie: EEHKPSV 13C VEEP +30 176
#note VEEP is best, the only real question is where exactly to put it. I think any differences between the placements are inconsequential.
>Winter: LOPU B1 PLUO. +14 211
>Arie: AHIKNOS H10 .IKAHS +54 230
#note I was all ready to play NIKAHS when Winter's play of PLUOT added a new variable for my consideration. I could sacrifice a lot of points to eliminate the 3x3, but I don't think it's worth it - even after NIKAHS I'm not in a particularly dominating position, and I'm even less so after OPAH.
>Winter: BM 3A B.M +14 225
>Arie: EINORUV 15H .OUVENIR +86 316
>Winter: ?IILNST 13H .LIeNIST +66 291
>Arie: AEIMTUY 12L AMIE +27 343
#note This play makes a small sacrifice in equity to drastically reduce Winter's odds of bingoing. It also keeps GUY N1 in abeyance to keep scoring well and close down additional lines if Winter doesn't immediately respond with a bingo. The U could also help if I draw the Q. The P is annoying but I can't deal with it without sacrificing too much - realistically Winter is more likely to hurt me with some eight off ALIENIST.
>Winter: AY N1 .AY +30 321
>Arie: IIOQTUY G1 QUI. +23 366
#note Interesting - it looks like I might have found the second best play. The P has got to get blocked, and QUIZ does the job while taking a large enough lead that it would be practically impossible for Winter to win without bingoing. However, the simple YE 2H sets up QUOTA whenever I draw an A or a blank, which will outrun all Winter's bingos! I also leave myself with TOQUET O8, which should be enough to outrun most FERiA type plays. Quackle has YE at 91% to win and QUIZ at 80%.
>Winter: ?AEERSS M3 .EARlESS +58 379
>Winter: (AFIOTY) +24 403
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