| Player 1 |
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#player1 JJB John J. Bulten
#player2 EL Ed Liebfried
>JJB: ABBGIUV 8E BABU +16 16
#note 1:33 [23:27] Quackle, and JJB's son Izak later, prefer bub 8g 14 to babu, ranking the leave 4.6 higher and the play 2.6 higher due to A helping the -ing possibilities. JJB more prosaically selects turnover, and the leftward placement (8g is .9 more defensive).
>EL: AFH F6 HA.F +18 18
#note 1:09 [23:51] JJB's placement has one virtue, of making all the fah/haaf plays 18, instead of fah 20 and haaf 10. EL lays down f7 then switches to the statically equal f6, but this is disfavored about 5% in simulation (apparently the open S hook is better) and other plays are probably better too.
>JJB: ACGIOVW E3 VIGA +21 37
#note 2:23 [21:04] Again the rack neatly divides into two high words, and the reserve last time is the best lead this time.
>EL: AEE 3C EA.E +14 32
#note 0:56 [22:55]
>JJB: ?ACIOWW B1 WOW +29 66
#note 2:02 [19:02] JJB would prefer wow 2f 30 if he were to see it; but even with this second-best his bingo chances are very strong.
>EL: EO 1A O.E +18 50
#note 0:16 [22:39] EL is having a rough day and needs to leave immediately after this game. He is bemused to have no better than 18 in reply.
>JJB: ?ACFGIR 2F FARCInG +85 151
#note 1:00 [18:02]
>EL: OY 1G YO +26 76
#note 2:21 [20:18] Somewhat better than previous reply, and EL's rack is growing bingo-ready.
>JJB: ?AIOPST H8 .TOPIAnS +80 231
#note 0:36 [17:26] Sympathetic to EL's plight but not in a position to relieve it, JJB notes apostil/topsail and airpost, but focuses on column H, which breaks open with opuntias/utopians. Capitols/babul 72 is also of note.
>EL: EILNRUV 12C UNVIR.LE +72 148
>EL: EILNRUV -- -72 76
#note 2:08 [18:10] This is a decent phony, with reward of 22.9 and risk of 56.3, quite reasonable. The quadruple can be filled with vulpine 48; otherwise the phony reward would be greater than the risk. EL's placement (12c/12e) was not noted.
>JJB: EILNORU L2 .UL +8 239
#note 3:32 [13:54] JJB has a near-bingo rack and no reason not to challenge, at the 11-second mark. His fish (gul 8, EINOR +5.0) is hard to justify mathematically. The static lead is boule e8 19, INR +3.7, then loup 11e 12, EINR +9.4, which is more in JJB's anagramming and positioning style (these have up to 9.7 diff); both block EL's discoverable quadruple too, which makes them both much more valuable than static value indicates. It's possible JJB thinks of vulpine in time but does not connect the dots to block it.
>EL: EILNRUV 11E VUL.INE +48 124
#note 0:18 [17:52] No miscalculation the second time.
>JJB: DEEINOR 15C INDOR.EE +60 299
#note 1:17 [12:37] JJB finds the only bingo quickly but keeps testing just in case. Perhaps his timing throws off EL, who holds the play.
>EL: EERSSTT - +0 124
#note 1:34 [16:18] It appears EL chooses to challenge while holding 9 bingos, up to 70 for estreats (JJB blocked 2 cases of sternest only); he must be pretty sure of the challenge after 1.5 minutes, because otherwise the opportunity cost (70 minus EERSSTT +11.7 is 58.3) is way too much with no upside.
>JJB: IKNPRSX 14J PRINK +44 343
#note 0:57 [11:40] SX is a fantastic leave, but IKNRS is somewhat higher in synergy and makes pax 42 rate 1.8 higher. JJB still likes prink, despite response likelihood, and d4 is retained.
>EL: EERSSTT O8 STREETS +86 210
#note 0:39 [15:39] JJB gives EL 16 more points than estreats, but this natural game-related point flow does not make up for the challenge points lost and EL needs to bingo again.
>JJB: LMNRSTX D2 M.X +42 385
#note 0:45 [10:55] JJB stops at the simple prepared play without pushing his consonant rack for minx (i10 44 and 4d 40 are better by up to 6.9).
>EL: AEGHIRT M8 EARTHI.G +76 286
#note 2:14 [13:25] Another optimal bingo is exactly what EL needed, and pelican tiles are in the bag.
>JJB: DINQRST 13L Q. +22 407
#note 1:12 [9:43] JJB has an embarrassment of choice about Q plays; he usually sees qindar/qintar and cinq when available, but the premiums catch his attention. He chooses qi 22 over qat 23, glad to keep T with one left, and is headed for a bingo himself. Quackle prefers the reverse choice by 1.6, and with qis/ess 35 a few points back.
>EL: DEELMNO 13B MELODE.N +76 362
>EL: DEELMNO -- -76 286
#note 3:08 [10:17] Now the best play is omen 14e 26 (32.2), so a phony, if truly plausible, is even more valuable: reward of 43.8, risk of only 31.3. It's also indicated by game score. The trouble is convincing an opponent who would recall this variant if he had studied it.
>JJB: CDINRST G1 ..RD +22 429
#note 0:20 [9:23] JJB challenges fast and has the right reply ready too. He doesn't need to work out that the rack takes ABO, and that lemonade almost played, to know that melodean* is no variant. (Maybe the correct transubstitutions melodeon, lemonade, melanoid should be grouped mentally.) Prinks allowed two bingos for EL but now it blocks one.
>EL: DEELMNO 14E OME. +26 312
#note 2:03 [8:14] EL finds the best play again; he knew the best play in all three of the zero situations, but held out hope that the dictionary would give him an additional break, which it never did.
>JJB: ACINSTT K5 NICTAT.S +70 499
#note 0:38 [8:45] To seal the deal, JJB draws and finds the relatively easy bingo in a tricky line.
>EL: DELLZ 6J Z.LL +33 345
#note 0:29 [7:45]
>JJB: ADEJNOY 13A ENJOY +37 536
#note 4:41 [4:04] JJB is about to enjoy another easy endgame. The high score is obvious and JJB works out two backups, probably starting with dan/da/at 13 (he later notes lader). His alternate of joyed does not go down. After enjoy, opponent's opening in column A (diene) is not negligible, because row 13 blocks EL's best dumps. But joey and jeon also block and have high outplays, but allow do/jo; setup pairs (like aji and doyen/na) also score less and are often blockable. So despite its adding points for EL, enjoy is still best.
>EL: DEINOU A12 N.ED +18 363
#note 1:05 [6:45] Now diene 21 will net 5 more in all; undone/undine 18 and dunno/donne 20 net 4 more.
>JJB: AD G11 .AD.. +15 551
#note 0:06 [3:58] JJB too needs to take extra time to keep looking. EL's play has just allowed him one more missed point, which he does not take any time to look for: and/na/ed 16.
>JJB: (IOU) +6 557
#note JJB's early blanks and decent choices hold the lead, but EL's maverick choices make it appear a blowout despite his good finds. He challenges a bingo while holding one, and attempts two phony bingos that are not hard to see through, all of which might be valid game-saving decisions if only the dictionary were to agree. Known points available: JJB 2, EL 5. Overall points available: JJB 24.6, EL 150.9+.
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