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#player1 Arie Arie
#player2 Marcela Marcela
>Arie: CEEHIOT 8G ECHO +18 18
#note I thought this play had considerable merit from a defensive perspective. It sims about even with ETHIC and TECHIE 8G. It's very hard to score well in response to ECHO without an S. In hindsight I'm not sure it's worth sacrificing 6 points to play this instead of ETHIC.
>Marcela: IILNV J6 VI.LIN +19 19
>Arie: AEIOSTX 9F OX +34 52
#note Nothing better.
>Marcela: EH 10E EH +26 45
>Arie: AAEIRSU 11I U.AI +8 60
#note Again, nothing better.
>Marcela: BDI 7E BID +21 66
>Arie: AEKMSTY 6D YAK +40 100
#note Best.
>Marcela: ADRW 5B DRAW +37 103
>Arie: EIMNNST 4A MIENS +46 146
#note The obvious alternative is leaving off the S for 11 fewer points. With 3 Ss and two blanks unseen, I was inclined to devalue the S slightly here, and the sim agrees.
>Marcela: ?EIPTTU 12C PUTTIEs +69 172
>Arie: EFMNRTU 13G FRENUM +30 176
#note This is probably a pretty decent play. FOX 9E for 18 wins the sim, but is unlikely to bingo if Marcela responds to it defensively. FUMIER L8 is also reasonable, and the NT leave is definitely better than the lone T. However, it creates scoring opportunities, whereas FRENUM keeps the board somewhat more controlled (FUMIER does eliminate the UNAIS hook.) I think FUMIER and FRENUM are about even.
>Marcela: EL E9 L.E. +18 190
>Arie: AEGIIQT 13B QI +30 206
#note With only 1 I unseen, I'm in great shape after this play.
>Marcela: EGR A1 GER. +21 211
>Arie: AEGINTV 14A VIG +42 248
#note Fine.
>Marcela: ABDEELO L10 B. +4 215
>Arie: AAENRTT 14H ARENA +23 271
#note This admittedly looks like a bizarre play, but I think it can be justified here. Marcela took a while to play BI and it seems pretty clear that her odds of bingoing immediately are very good. I could go for some fishy play like AT 14D and hope to bingo back, but with the board not being particularly open my odds of getting somethingn are probably in the 30-40% range. With ARENA, I can block any PIGS forming bingo while setting myself up to score well on column 15 if I get an S or a blank. With 4 of those unseen among 38 unseen tiles my odds are pretty decent. Marcela probably doesn't have the Z or the J, as that would not result in her fishing off one tile. If I specify a partial opponent rack of ?ERS ARENA wins the sim.
>Marcela: DOTY 15L DOTY +38 253
>Arie: AEOOSTT 15D TOEAS +30 301
#note I have to do this - too dangerous to leave the spot open.
>Marcela: JO N13 JO. +20 273
>Arie: ADFOOOT B1 OF +23 324
#note ALOOF 9I looks like an excellent play. It blocks far more bingos than OF does (although arguably I am less likely to outrun those bingos that are blocked by OF.)
>Marcela: ACGITUZ -1 +0 273
>Arie: AADOOTT O12 TOD. +21 345
#note Here I commit to an outrunning strategy - trying to play defensively is likely futile. With this play I go up by 72 points. AAOT is weak, but I'm drawing into a consonant heavy pool. Two alternatives are OTTER C1 and DATO O10. Both of these plays improve my leave slightly. I don't like DATO because it sets up spots for some bingos (for instance, sevens ending in ED) that would otherwise not play. OTTER is probably about on a par with my play.
>Marcela: ACGINUZ F14 N. +4 277
>Arie: AACORTZ M9 ZA +25 370
#note Looks fine; blocks a bit and scores enough to outrun most bingos.
>Marcela: ?EGINRS N4 REGINaS +80 357
>Arie: ACELORT O1 CATER +29 399
#note I was low on time here and didn't realize that Marcela had APE/SUPE. However, I don't benefit from blocking those plays because I either sacrifice too many points or get myself stuck with the C. This is best.
>Marcela: AELPSUW O8 APE +40 397
>Arie: LO 7I O.L +10 409
>Arie: (LSUW) +14 423
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