| Player 1 |
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#player1 Arie Arie
#player2 Joey Joey
>Arie: AIILSXY 8G XI +18 18
#note IXIA is also available. I preferred XI to IXIA because two letter openings are extremely annonying to respond to - and it does lower Joey's average response by about 5 points. XI sims within 0.5 points of the optimal placement of IXIA. This ultimately led to a board that I couldn't control, but I'm not sure that I do worse on a closed board against Joey than a wide open one.
>Joey: OOT 7F TOO +16 16
>Arie: AAEILSY 9F AY +26 44
#note Obvious correct play.
>Joey: CGO E9 COG +20 36
>Arie: AAEILOS 11D A.IO +5 49
#note Ugly position - this actually wins the sim. It has the advantage of setting up H11-15 if I don't get a bingo. The other choices are AGO and GOA in the same spot, which look even lamer - I really do not like 2c3v leaves - too much potential for them to sour. If there were any decent alternatives I wouldn't play this.
>Joey: ?DFINNS 6F IF +28 64
>Arie: AEILPSV 12A VIAL +26 75
#note Lots of 12A plays sim about the same - I may have misevaluated this position, because VAPE and VAPES win the sim (I eschewed them.) No Es have been played yet, which devalues my E. I like Ps and Ms a bit too much I guess - EPS looks like a really good leave to me, whereas ILS looks like something that has too much potential to get worse. It probably helps that VAPE gets 4 more points right now (it wins the sim by about 4).
>Joey: ACEIPT A7 CAPTI.E +42 106
>Arie: EELPSVW H11 SWEEP +48 123
#note Obvious best play.
>Joey: DEEJ E3 JEED +31 137
>Arie: HLNNOTV 4A VOLT. +24 147
#note NOVEL in the same spot wins the sim by a significant margin - I may have underestimated how bad HNN really is. HOVEL also sims a bit better. I think this is an error.
>Joey: DEINNRU 15C UNDER.IN +62 199
>Arie: ABEHNNY B2 EB.NY +36 183
#note This sims a bit better than HENBANE 13G for 34 - I think with a deficit HENBANE might be okay to assure that the left side of the board doesn't remain inaccessable, but I don't think this is an error.
>Joey: DEEINST 13C NEEDI.ST +79 278
>Arie: AHIKNQT I3 THANK +31 214
#note This sets up QI for 33 in the tolerably likely event that it doesn't get blocked, which is why I played it. The board is becoming non-volatile very fast, so I can understand something like ANKH 12J to create openings - but I don't think that kind of aggression is called for quite yet.
>Joey: GU 4G UG. +9 287
>Arie: EEFIMOQ J2 QI +33 247
>Joey: AGINRSU 4G ...S +20 307
#note Very interesting choice of play - bingoing on this board is now practically impossible without creating an opening.
>Arie: EEFMORZ F2 MO +19 266
#note FROM 10C wins a sim. I think I have to do this - I need to catch a break to get back in the game. Joey will thwart any opening I create after playing FROM. There is only 1 E unseen to me (along with two blanks). I have a great chance of hitting something on row 1 with the Z. Joey will block but there's no guarantee that his block will be effective, and it will certainly be low scoring.
>Joey: AW C1 AW +10 317
>Arie: AEEFORZ 1E FEAZE +56 322
#note ZOEAE got blocked.
>Joey: GINR 10A .RIG.N +21 338
>Arie: ??ORRRU 14J OUR +10 332
#note This is a really difficult position - sims are unhelpful because they assume that Joey will make some scoring play that opens the board. Hence they advocate exchanging, which is a losing proposition - Joey plays off a few tiles and I'm back where I started with a slightly larger deficit. ROUT J10 is an interesting choice - only one E remains unseen - there is a 50% chance that Joey doesn't have it. Problem is that if he does have it he makes some defensive play down row K and it may be hard to place my bingo. The other think I though of was AWOL C1 for 22 - it may be hard to outrun two blanks on a a closed board even if I don't bingo. Or OR in the same spot as OUR - only I don't think the U improves my leave here, and OR is likely to set Joey up for a bingo of his own. I think it's between OUR and AWOL.
>Joey: O C1 ..O. +22 360
>Arie: ??LRRRS 3I ..RL +4 336
#note This is clearly correct.
>Joey: AADEHTU L3 .ATHED +24 384
#note Joey effectively blocks some bingos here - I could still have RaMBLeR/MaRBLeR, SoMBReR, or RaMBLeS/MaRBLeS.
>Arie: ??LMRRS M7 MoRReLS +81 417
>Arie: ??LMRRS -- -81 336
#note I was pretty dubious about the validity of MoRReLS, actually - I thought it might be good, and figured I had to shoot my shot. Technically the best play is SMeaR M3 for 34, leading to a 32 point loss. Played pretty decently this game; VIAL and VOLTE were definitely suboptimal, but not huge errors, and I feel that trying to go out with a phoney bingo was justifiable under the circumstances.
>Joey: ABU 8L .AUB +21 405
>Joey: (LMRRS??) +14 419
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