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#player1 Ben_Schoenbrun Ben Schoenbrun
#player2 David_Koenig David Koenig
>Ben_Schoenbrun: EIITY 8D YITIE +24 24
>David_Koenig: AAGHOST 7G HAG +24 24
#note Sim ranks D4 HOAGY and 7G HAG as almost indistinguishable best plays. I would choose HAG again in this position even after looking at sim results, but I think it is less important which play you prefer here than it is to understand what the differences are that lead to the similar evaluation. AST is a somewhat better leave than AOST because it is more bingo prone. Leaving the TIE in YITIE unobstructed may lead to slightly more bingos as well. However, his expected score will be significantly higher after HOAGY, as parallel plays on the C and E columns are fruitful. The thing about a leave like AOST is that even when it doesn't bingo, it cannot be too unbalanced with vowels and consonants. With AST, there is still a possibility of a six consonant rack on the next turn. So while AST has a slightly bigger upside, it also has a slightly bigger downside. It may seem counterintuitive to want to make a somewhat blocking play like HAG when I've got a bingo-ish leave, but with the S in hand I am not worried about being able to get my bingos down. Often when I have low point bingo-ish tiles I prefer to shape the board in a way where bingos can still go down but non-bingo plays will not score as much, and that is what HAG attempts to do. While it is true that the raw percentage of times I bingo on the next turn is slightly lower after HAG, it is also true that the percentage of the time that he bingos on the turn before mine is lower. Furthermore, it creates a board where you're more likely to need an S to get your bingo down, when I already have one in hand and he may not. It's a very small difference in this particular position, but weighing factors like these properly may make a bigger difference in other positions.
>Ben_Schoenbrun: DUW 6H WUD +20 44
>David_Koenig: ABNOSTU K4 BOUN +20 44
#note I did see that the same word played at 5I for one more point, but I preferred this one for a couple of different reasons: one was to keep the TWAE/SUG hooks alive when I was holding the T and S, and the other was to create the BOUNS hook to the triple, which could provide a good bailout play if I picked up a high scoring tile that broke up a bingo. Yes, I suppose you could argue that the downside of this is that the position I played BOUN does make for higher scoring short plays for him. You can't have everything all the time, but it is also worth noticing that when he has just made a three tile play like WUD, it is less likely that he is still carrying other high point tiles than when he has just drawn five tiles after YITIE. Again, these are marginal differences.
>Ben_Schoenbrun: EGIOV L1 VOGIE +36 80
>David_Koenig: AAEEGST L7 EATAGES +70 114
#note Not to say that my placement of BOUN was best, but it did give me the lane for my bingo, which probably would not have gone down had I played BOUN in the other position.
>Ben_Schoenbrun: CNTT E7 T.NCT +14 94
>David_Koenig: ACDEIMO 2H CAMO.DI +36 150
>David_Koenig: AEEIKOR (challenge) +5 155
#note This is the best play simply because all plays that score in the same neighborhood or more do reckless things to the board. MEDIVAC scores the most but needlessly creates an S hook the Triple Word Score in the corner. M10 MODICA and 9A DEMONIC score the exact same as CAMOODI, but dangle letters in the triple lanes. M9 AMIDO is the most reasonable alternative, but it still leaves the V completely unobstructed for him. Once he challenged CAMOODI, that made it an even more favorable choice.
>Ben_Schoenbrun: LOPW M7 PLOW +31 125
>David_Koenig: AEEIKOR N10 KIORE +58 213
#note Choosing KORAI to avoid the S hook to the triple line isn't justified, since there is already another S hook with AWKS.
>Ben_Schoenbrun: ?BJNOTU 15H NUTJOBs +107 232
#note Hooking AWKS was one point more. I don't know whether Ben rushed this play or preferred it for strategic reasons or wasn't sure of AWKS. There is some value in taking out the O12-O15 lane with his placement, but I probably would have played it on column O.
>David_Koenig: AADEEIS 1L .ADE +30 243
#note This was a failure on my part. I missed VIAE in the same spot.
>Ben_Schoenbrun: LR 4K ..RL +6 238
>David_Koenig: ?AEIMST O4 ETAMInS +96 339
#note This is tied for my highest scoring bingo with O8 MASTIER. If I had realized that, I probably would have chosen MASTIER to avoid setting up the high scoring LEZ/LUZ spot.
>Ben_Schoenbrun: AEELNRS 10C RE.LEANS +64 302
>David_Koenig: AENNORS 6N N. +4 343
#note My rack seemed to demand fishing, and with the S on row 13 and row 14 lanes open, it seemed reasonable, though there is some value in turnover to get to the P for PRECLEANS as well as the X and Z here. I figured the worst case scenario for me was missing a fish and him hitting LEZ/LUZ, so I took that spot out. If I had played MASTIER on the previous turn, I would have had the opportunity to do other more useful things while fishing here. I suppose there is still a case for ignoring the Z spot and playing 3I NO to give myself more spots to bingo. Note that although I have the slight lead, I am much more likely to bingo than he is with the remaining pool, so opening bingo lanes is not a bad thing.
>Ben_Schoenbrun: EIPQU B10 PIQUE +63 365
>David_Koenig: AEFNORS 13A F.RANOSE +74 417
>Ben_Schoenbrun: RVY D12 V.RY +28 393
>David_Koenig: DEFHLOX 12F DOF +25 442
#note A relatively simple endgame. There is no rush to cash in the X, because he can't usefully block me scoring with it. I take away his high scoring spot of ZAIRE and leave both REX/DOX and O12 HEX.
>Ben_Schoenbrun: AIIRZ 1I ZA +26 419
#note Quackle points out that the blocking play LIDO ends up netting two extra points of spread for him.
>David_Koenig: EHLX 14D .EX +55 497
>Ben_Schoenbrun: IIR J10 .IRI +4 423
>Ben_Schoenbrun: (HL) +10 433
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