| Player 1 |
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#player1 Carl Carl
#player2 Rafi Rafi
>Carl: AACEIJT 8F AJI +20 20
#note 8H placement sims a bit higher. (-1) #strategysmall
>Rafi: AEIRTTW G8 .AW +14 14
>Carl: ACDELNT F6 CL.DE +26 46
>Rafi: AEIORTT 9E O.. +4 18
>Carl: ADENTTY 6F .ATTY +18 64
#note OY E9 wins the sim, even though there aren't many bingos to be drawn. It's probably even better than that since Rafi is telegraphing a bingo and might give me more lanes. (-2) #strategysmall
>Rafi: AEILRTT 5J ALT +11 29
>Carl: DEINSSU H1 NUDIS. +24 88
#note My first missed bingo of the tournament, and it's a doozy. Not only did I not see it, but I would probably have challenged if Rafi had played it. I studied all the 7s and 8s for this tournament, starting with the 7s. This one fell in a scary probability range-- neither so high that I would never miss it, nor so low that it is easy to spot. Also, I categorize words based on how well I know them. NIDUSES fell in at around the 20th percentile, but I only had time to give the bottom 10-15% a second pass. On Friday night, I studied from 2AM until 6:30AM, and looked at my phonies list. If I'd studied 7s, maybe I would have found NIDUSES but failed to challenge BEDCLOTH*. (-39) #wordknowledgelarge
>Rafi: EIMORTV 4C VOMIT.ER +82 111
>Carl: EEEKOST C3 E.OKE +26 114
#note I hated this play when I made it, but it sims as well as anything else. It's even with EKED 3E, and 3.5 points ahead of KEET J3, which would have been my next choice.
>Rafi: AAEFMRR 8A FARM +49 160
>Carl: ENPSSTU M3 UNSTEPS +76 190
>Rafi: ACDENRY L9 ARDENCY +86 246
>Carl: ADEIOUZ 15H ZAID. +54 244
#note I strongly considered ZOEA here but decided that DIU is about as awful as EOU, and it's important to take out Row 15 so Rafi can't use it. Also, ZAIDY is 6 points more. In actuality, the two plays sim even.
>Rafi: EIINQRR 2E INQ.IRER +71 317
>Carl: BEIORUW 1A OUREBI +33 277
#note Another difficult decision. What's better, BOWER for 40 keeping IU, or OUREBI for 33 keeping W? It's close, but I think BOWER actually was the play. It scores seven more points and opens a new lane on Column O. Also, even though IU is a terrible leave, it 's probably better than a W for bingoing, and at this score I probably need to bingo. (-1.2% win chances) #strategymedium
>Rafi: AAEENOO K9 AEON +21 338
>Carl: ?BGGLNW -BGGLW +0 277
#note I spent forever on this play, and didn't get anywhere. My brain was fried and I couldn't focus. I saw plays like WEB 7L or NEWB 12M. I also saw GLOW 5A. WEB/NEWB has to be right. It's possible that Rafi doesn't have either the blank or the S, and with the board getting tighter every turn, I need to keep lanes open to give myself a fighting chance. (-4) #strategymedium
>Rafi: AEFHIOO 1L OHIA +27 365
>Carl: ?EGINPV E9 .PING +24 301
#note I spent forever on this play too and couldn't wrap my sleepy head around it. Quackle plays PI J14, fishing for FEVERING/FORGIVEN/AVENGING/AVERTING/AGENTIVE. It doesn't hit often, but it's my best chance. All OPING accomplishes is make it easy for Rafi to shut everything down. (-23) (-7% win chances) #strategylarge
>Rafi: ?BEFLLO 12A FELO. +24 389
>Carl: ?ESTUVX 5B V.X +22 323
#note Wow, there actually was a bingo to draw to! XI fishing for AUTOSAVE O1. And the O was in the bag too!! I blew this game in every possible way. (-infinity win chances) #preendgamelarge
>Rafi: ?BEGGHL B7 H.GGL. +20 409
#note Ok, not *every* possible way. Get your mind out of the gutter.
>Carl: ?EOSTUW A12 .lEW +27 350
#note Best is WIsS 11D -6 (#endgamemedium)
>Rafi: ?BE 14J Bi.E +25 434
>Rafi: (OSTU) +8 442
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