| Player 1 |
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#player1 EL Ed Liebfried
#player2 JJB John J. Bulten
>EL: ALUW 8E WAUL +14 14
#note ~0:30 [~24:30] EL and JJB have both lost games late in the tourney, so they are still close at the top and this game will decide first and second place: EL takes first place if he can win by 80 (79 is a tie on spread). JJB needs the win for his rating but is hopeful to get additional spread too. EL starts simply, rated 1.5 behind 8f.
>JJB: EIRSSUU I7 USURIES +68 68
#note ~0:45 [~24:15] JJB despairs of there being a bingo in the rack, then it comes together.
>EL: Q -7 +0 14
#note ~1:00 [~23:30] Rack unknown.
>JJB: AGHIJNS H12 HAJI +65 133
#note ~0:45 [~23:30] Much easier to find.
>EL: ADIMR 12H ..DARIM +26 40
#note ~3:36 [19:54] EL already is seeking blanks in the turnover.
>JJB: AGILNST M8 TAIL.NGS +70 203
#note ~1:00 [~22:30] JJB struggles with phonies but finds the best play. That means EL is facing clock pressure and a gap of 163 after a pelican equivalent when he had hoped to get the upper hand early. But he reminds himself that with the blanks still out anything is possible, and after all he is capable of getting the points in the time allotted!
>EL: EF N9 EF +28 68
#note 0:38 [19:16] EL begins playing power against weakness with a standard 28.
>JJB: AEEGNOT 9E OE +9 212
#note ~2:00 [~20:30] The fish is behind point plays egesta 15j 24 (by 2.9), towage e6 20, and genoa 13k 15. Egesta is quite safe; JJB's idea of turnover is more like negator 10, way behind.
>EL: RY 8M .RY +24 92
#note 0:52 [18:24]
>JJB: AEGINOT 14L A.O +8 220
#note ~2:44 [17:46] With I on the board there's no need for I on the rack: moi n12 18, up by 8.8.
>EL: Q -3 +0 92
#note 0:10 [18:14] Precursor to cutting into JJB's lead. Rack unknown.
>JJB: EGINOTW 15M .EW +20 240
#note 0:52 [16:54] Row 15 is still strong with a -WS- word, namely owsen 15k 47. Barring owse(n), sew 20 rates 15.8 behind.
>EL: ?BINSTT 15D BITT.NgS +62 154
#note 0:41 [17:33] EL has used the first blank successfully.
>JJB: EGINOTU E8 ..OING +20 260
#note 2:17 [14:37] To preserve the leave we have out 7c 10 (3.6 ahead), but JJB decides to take the points in the -ing suffix (wooing was rated more highly on previous turns).
>EL: OV 13C VO. +14 168
#note 3:21 [14:12] EL seems to be assisting in board shutdown, but this is a good fish.
>JJB: EEGITTU K8 TEGU. +12 272
#note 0:16 [14:21] Bad and duplicate racks often make decisions easier. Guttae 14 is 3 points behind.
>EL: ?ELNRRT O1 ERRaNTL. +80 248
#note 0:33 [13:39] EL squeezes the second blank out and is now in striking range.
>JJB: EIOOPRT N1 POO +20 292
#note 1:22 [12:59] JJB again makes the best play but has a difficult road ahead.
>EL: ADOPV 11B VAP.D +11 259
#note 3:28 [10:11] EL starts with dopa 4l 20 but then rearranges to make vapid 11b 11, several points behind. Something about the leave attracts him, but he might have done even better with vapor 3k 20.
>JJB: EEIIORT 10G RE.I. +8 300
#note 1:17 [11:42] Playing off two vowels would be most helpful, as one 12d 19 (up by 15.8) or the blocky oi n5 10. Third place is trading to EIRT. JJB's play is way behind, and rive b9 9 is a point higher if JJB is ok opening.
>EL: AQ 6M QA. +14 273
#note 1:07 [9:04] EL continues careful rack improvement.
>JJB: BDEIOTZ C9 ZO. +22 322
#note 1:55 [9:47] Inspecting the right spot but missing zoo/za/op 27. He works out zeda/pood 33, which is also superior, but does not trust it.
>EL: CENO M1 ONCE +30 303
#note 0:55 [8:09] Good catchup play, indicated ahead of everything else.
>JJB: BDDEIKT 4J KIT. +16 338
#note 1:48 [7:59] Quackle prefers betide 24 (by 16.7) and it wins about 85% of simulations along with the counterintuitive be l4 16. Bide, bike, dike, and kite are all a little behind.
>EL: AY J2 YA. +18 321
#note 4:06 [4:03]
>JJB: BDDEEEI K3 B.DE +18 356
#note 1:28 [6:31] With this rack JJB doesn't care about emptying the bag. If trying to bingo, de f11 5 ranks 6.2 ahead, but, if trying to win, JJB has the right idea and died k3 15 wins 100% of simulations (the reason is that most all of EL's best potential plays are on the K column, especially with the X). Bide wins only about 2/3, but this statistic may be misleading given the usefulness of D in the endgame.
>EL: CEFHLMN J6 HM +32 353
#note 0:40 [3:23] The board is so closed that neither player can even force an out in three without assistance! JJB threatens xu and dexy, setups like eau and adieu, waiting plays like abide and ria, and blocks of EL's every play except column O. EL's best plan is to play long with heavy threats. Hm 32 is a clear leader both in points and in good leave. Analysis below indicates that it wins by 2 points assuming masterful play on both sides: alternative options are excessive. Since hm 32 scores 9 ahead of any other play, it seems unnecessary to consider alternatives in detail because they cannot set up enough to recover this gap. Hm i1 and my 2i threaten flench, but that is blockable; chelae threatens fem/fen but allows exec; menu threatens chef but allows dexie/me; etc. Transposition (chedarim 16, xu 17, hm 32, etc.) does not help, because the points of hm appear essential to any plan.
>JJB: ADEEIX G4 ADIE. +7 363
#note 4:49 [1:42] Nobody has reached forced out in two, and whoever opens creates opportunities for the opponent. (1) Leading by 3, JJB prefers opening, and sees two outs from adieu, then three, then four (in fact the X cannot be trapped thereby). He thinks it a winner, but after playing it sees that EL can block outplays with clef and threaten out himself, which defeats it (en is EL's only other winner, threatening caf). Adieu 7, clef 21, dex 11, nope 7+2, net of -12: for EL, clef wins by 9. (2) A more fluid opener is eau 4 (threatening dexie), indicating en 2 (blocking, and threatening clef/fen), den 8 (blocking), chedarim 16 (threatening fled/fley), xi 21, elf 19+2, net of -6: en wins by 3. (3) The only useful immediate X play is xu 17, but JJB will still not have out in two and EL can now threaten multiple outs in three! Xu 17, chedarim 16 (threatening fley plus nope, and also lab plus fen/flab, where all blocks lose), ya/abide 13 (or dope), lab 6, dope 9 (or ya), fen/flab 16+6, net of -5: chedarim wins by 2. Dope or ya/abide instead of xu may block threats, but allow an X block with nae (also nu, where diel may threaten xed but is blocked by e.g. led/fled). (4) Ria 5 (keeping 2 X threats), chedarim 16, xu 17 (threatening ad 18), nope 7 (setting up elf), ad 18 (with nothing better), elf 25+4, net of -12: chedarim wins by 9. (5) So is the answer to block the linchpin, chedarim? Keep a flexible rack! After ease 8, nae 3 and nu 3 block the X and win at leisure. After das 7, nae/nu can still win, or neum 12 threatens cel/fly and flab/cope, going out in two in most cases. After da/na 5, nae/nu defeat dexy with clef, and block the X eventually against any other option with e.g. fab 12. After aas 4, nab 6 blocks dexy, threatens cope and fley/fell/ef, defeats dey with clef, and defeats dope with ell blocking X. The only other block of chedarim is de/ne 5, suggesting cab 10 (blocking dexy), xu 17 (adieu loses to elfin, ria/in beats nu or neum with axel but loses to nae), nope 7 (the only N play, better than lez setting up ne), das 6 (blocking winning fas), iff 9 (with lez unblockable), ya/abide 13, lez 12+4, net of -1: cab loses by 2. De/ne 5, nu 3, dope 9 (preserving unblockable X options), neum 8, axel 11, fab 12, ria/in 5, lac 5+2, net of 0: nu loses by 3. But again, de/ne 5, nae 3 (blocking xu, threatening clef against dexy), ria/in 5 (retaining dexy), and now fe 14 (threatening various immediate outplays, X blocks, and cope plus lab against the eau setup), dope 9 (or aas), cab 10 (finally blocking dexy), aas 4 (blocking las in return; or dope), pass (-1), de 5 (-8), all pass (double block), net of -6: nae wins by 3, and de/ne fares the same as eau. In short, it appears that hm wins the game, xu is the best response (losing by 2), and adieu is 7 behind (losing by 9). If you can improve on this analysis, please contact the players!
>EL: CEFLN H5 EF +13 366
#note ~2:38 [~0:45] Down by 10, EL successfully blocks all four outs, but does not take enough points to win. Ef 13, dex 11, chedarim 16, de 5+4, net of 9: ef loses by 1, while clef would win by 9.
>JJB: EX 5G ..X +11 374
#note ~0:42 [~1:00] Optimal play now wins for JJB.
>EL: CLN H3 CL.. +13 379
#note ~0:22 [~0:23] Chedarim 16, de/ne 5+4, net of 7 (loses by only 1). Clef 13, de/ne 5+2, net of 6.
>JJB: E 12E .E +5 379
#note ~0:30 [0:30]
>JJB: (N) +2 381
#note In a hard-fought contest for rating points even after JJB was basically assured of first prize with his pelican equivalent, EL catches up 161 of 163 points. He finds the unique winning play in the endgame, but not the continuation, and goes down by 2 after an otherwise excellent game. Points improvable based on tiles played: EL 11, JJB 13. Points improvable based on values: JJB 81.8.
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