| Player 1 |
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#player1 smylie smylie
#player2 sokol sokol
>smylie: AACEERX H8 CAREX +44 44
>sokol: DEIMOTW G9 MOWED +39 39
#note MOW G11 is interesting. You would think it is more defensive than MOWED, but it actually raises my average by a bit over a point, mainly due to allowing waaay more bingoes (a lot of 7s and leaving the A and C open for 8s). not a ton of heavy tiles go in front of OR so MOWED isn't crazy. MOW does well in a sim cause Q has josh bingoing 37% vs. 12%, which is insane. they are very close in the sim. There is something to be said for the aggressive MOW here since the plays MOWED gives back often don't give back any good responses, so MOW will really benefit Josh next turn (Q has him averaging about 17 more after MOW than MOWED).
>smylie: AEEHIMY F10 MEH +44 88
#note AEIY isn't very good, but this scores by far the most and gives back the least. I also keep I9 plays for next turn in case he doesn't plaly there.
>sokol: AIIIORT -IIIO +0 39
#note AIRT looks fine to go all in on hitting the C, though it gets blocked somewhat often (though that may in turn give a 7s lane on column J). going all in on bingo% seems decent here given the dearth of scoring options on the board. Keeping ART is also interesting to get an extra shot at an N for NARTHEX, which Josh had seen and was going for
>smylie: AAEIOOY I9 YA +27 115
#note I liked playing for 27 here, I don't give back that much more and I see upside with the AEIOO rack, whereas there isn't too much more upside than YA or something similar after exchanging. Maybe I should be preparing for his bingo already and grooming my rack, which is the upside of exchanging. Given just the standard scoring options, I am happy to exchange since YA is about as good as I can hope. One issue is that I am raising his average by 8 points! I guess the MORA hooks work to his advantage, and I allow a few more bingoes. Interesting
>sokol: AEKRRTT J6 KETA +27 66
#note KR(EWE) is really cool1
>smylie: AEIOOSV K9 SOAVE +26 141
#note AVISO is more standard but I like this play to keep the top harder to access - AVISO forks, opening the L column downwards for bingoes and floating an A which can be used to extend farther left. happy with this
>sokol: AFGORRT K2 FORGAT +28 94
#note looks good. F(EWE)R is the other option, but I like keeping the EWE spot open so that better opening plays can be made there, ones that float a tile at 11D. Also keeping NARTHEX alive doesn't hurt!
>smylie: EIOTTUW 4G OUTW.ITE +74 215
#note luckbox
>sokol: AJRTTUZ 2K .UTZ +32 126
#note going for narthex once again! TAJ 3e is really interesting, setting up Z plays with lots of draws (TIZ, REZ, and other rarer stuff)
>smylie: BDEHIPU 3C BIPED +29 244
#note not sure... this is standard, and I liked that it set up HU on top of ED for scoring plays (which will in turn set up another scoring play, possibly!). However, it is tempting to try and do a crazy block of the top left, since space is so important right now. I thought about some stuff like dip/oi/up, p(u)du, D(U)H. I don't see anything that is truly a complete block, and if I'm gonna have to spend another turn blocking completely I am happy to take biped which takes a two turn blocking route while also scoring. However, it is still good to block things immediately, which BIPED does not (even if I can't block 100%, it's still very valuable to block). I decided against blocking mostly because of OUTWRITES, having that big threat available means my blocking will not be as secure, and outrunning felt like a safer option. Given the shape of the board you could definitely convince me that closing the top left if of utmost importance, since I can usually withstand one large O column bingo, so eliminating the 2 bingo possibilities (or three) is very important. interesting turn.
>sokol: AAIJLRT D1 JA.L +38 164
>smylie: DHIILUY 5N HI +10 254
#note hated this play once I made it. It doesn't completely block the lane, and the I is not the worst tile to start with, especially with 6 Ns out. I missed DUI/UDO as an opportunity, which sets up H?Y plays for a lot. One downside is the Q that's out, but he doesn't have it very often. It does suck when he has it though, which may make DUH a bit safter (setting up L?Y plays for 4 fewer and with slightly less frequency (though I am scoring 3 more immediately). The DUH setup is all around worse, also cause after I cash the setup I'll be keeping my duplicate Is. Altogether not inspiring, almost making me want to play DUI although the risk is higher. I could also just play YI(E)LD and keep the HU once more for the 2F spot. Now is the time to play more defense cause there aren't many good lanes besides the O column, but this is far from fool proof. still not a fan
>sokol: AIIIORT 1A RIO.A +36 200
#note haha this same rack appears again in the same game!
>smylie: DEILNUY 2F YULE +32 286
>sokol: CIILNTV O5 .NCIVIL +36 236
#note v nice
>smylie: ADDILNO 1H ADD +24 310
#note didn't think of LUDO, LAD is better for sure. Should I be blocking the Q here? I feel like no, since there are enough marginal lanes open and my Q blocks are bad enough that I could get outrun by bingoes, which are more of a threat in the nice pool and with ?? unseen. LAD is the play I think
>sokol: NNNRSST 11E N...R +22 258
>smylie: EFIILNO 13I OL.FIN +20 330
#note I didn't see OLEFINE lmao, that is an improvement. The pool is slightly consonant heavy but I still wanna be drawing scoring tiles and reaching for the blank, so this is a nontrivial error. now is a better time to block the Q spot
>sokol: INNSSST 5D SINS +25 283
>smylie: EEGIOPR 12K .EG +27 357
#note saw PER(N)IO but seems kinda crazy right now. VEG keeps really good outrunning chances still. Q likes VOG better though, EEIPR gives me a significantly bigger bingo chance, and seems to not average worse when I don't bingo either.
>sokol: ?EGNRST O13 ERG +22 305
#note interesting position. A lot seems to need to go right in order for RINGSTER to win. Certainly drawing the blank and avoiding the Q, and possibly drawing an out too, or leaving me with enough clunk where I have to dink and Q and then allow a good out in two. Q likes RINGSTER followed by ERG. erg could conceivably win after a Q drop, since a bingo will give JOsh two tiles, which could go out somewhere for a decent score (like (O)NO for 15, and if I have clunk). There is still a lot I can do but I like the idea with this. it's hard to compare ERG to RINGSTER.
>smylie: ?EIOPQR 14H QI +13 370
#note seems to be a 100% win. this allows me to outrun any A column bingoes he can have
>sokol: ?NNOSTU E5 .N +2 307
>smylie: ?ABEOPR 15E ABRi +45 415
#note damn didn't notice the VEGA spot, BEANO is 50! However, I can block all his bingoes with (R)EPARK!
>sokol: ?ENOSTU A1 .OUTiNES +74 381
>sokol: (EOP) +10 391
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