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#player1 David_Koenig David Koenig
#player2 Dave_Wiegand Dave Wiegand
>David_Koenig: AJOOTUV 8G JO +18 18
#note I was very unsure of which way to go here, AVO/OVA, JATO/JOTA, or JO. In pure rack leave terms, AVO/OVA is best, but the problem with the conventional placement is that it doesn't leave a board that helps the J score on the next turn. Note that if OVO* was a word, it would be a great play with the V on the center star, to give TAJ or JUT quadrupling the J on the next turn. But there's no way I can make a play like that without breaking up TAJ. Quackle thinks JO is about six points worse than 8G AVO, so it likes the idea of setting up the J even though I'm not able to set it up in more than one place. Conventional placements of AVO/OVA are at least 2.5 points back.
>Dave_Wiegand: OOX 9G OXO +31 31
>David_Koenig: AEMOTUV 10I OVUM +19 37
#note Wow, this was a terrible bit of blindness on my part. I was so focused on playing off the V, that I didn't see at all that I could make strong parallel plays underlapping JO and OX. OVUM of course has the best leave, but it's far too much of a point sacrifice. MEOU 10F is the clear best play and it sims 10.5 points above OVUM. I thought I was just unlucky, but I was not. My suboptimal choice gave Dave just the tile he needed.
>Dave_Wiegand: CEEILQS K7 LIQ.ESCE +88 119
>David_Koenig: ABDEHOT 15F HOTBED +57 94
#note Despite Dave's huge bingo, this didn't actually work out that badly for me because of the big comeback.
>Dave_Wiegand: EFRV 14J F.VER +51 170
>David_Koenig: AHINOST 12E ASTONI.H +74 168
#note The only bingo.
>Dave_Wiegand: ESTZ O12 ZEST +81 251
>David_Koenig: AIIILRT 11D ILIA +16 184
#note Best.
>Dave_Wiegand: EIOPY 14B PIOYE +31 282
>David_Koenig: ?EINRTU J2 UNTRIEd +63 247
#note There is only one better bingo here, but it's a significant improvement. It's REPUNIT L2. That's a six point error.
>Dave_Wiegand: AAU 13A AUA +14 296
>David_Koenig: ?ABEORT 5D TABORE.s +86 333
#note Best, because it is the only way that hits the double-double without slotting vowels next to bonus squares.
>Dave_Wiegand: IM L8 MI. +28 324
#note This play strongly suggests that Dave is sitting on close to bingo tiles, probably including at least one of E and S. He opens the M column. Before this it was very hard to fit seven letter bingos on the board.
>David_Koenig: DDFGLPR E3 FL.P +9 342
#note I can't do anything about the M column at the moment, but this play significantly decreases his bingo chances by taking out the D and E columns, as well as partially blocking rows 2 and 3.
>Dave_Wiegand: ACINR A8 ARNIC. +33 357
>David_Koenig: DDGKNRU B4 GRUND +12 354
#note I missed KNURR H1 which is by far my highest scoring play and the best choice. That being said, GRUND is not that much worse, simming only about 3 points back. There are several reasons for this. One is that the remaining tile pool is very bingo friendly for him, and B2-B8 is his most dangerous bingo lane. He could have -ED, -ING, or even -AL bingos that only fit there and not on column M. Furthermore, with three A's remaining, I have a very good shot at drawing DAK 10D on the next turn, which would likely put Dave in a spot where he needs to bingo to come back.
>Dave_Wiegand: AGW 10D GAW +35 392
>David_Koenig: ADEEKLS H1 DAKE. +33 387
#note So I got a bunch of those good bingo tiles, but he beat me to the DAK spot and now I'm the one who needs to come back on a tight board. I liked DAKER because it scored enough to make it close to an even endgame and left one in the bag, while leaving two profitable bingo lanes for me on row 1 and column M. What I perhaps misevaluated was that despite the seemingly close score I still am desperate for the bingo. Because with only one tile in the bag and an overall very versatile tile pool, if I don't bingo, Dave will have no problem playing long and going out with the last tile he draws, meaning that his tempo advantage should win for him in the endgame. I think that's the main reason that Quackle prefers a shorter play of 3C KEF, claiming that it wins 60% of the time for me, whereas it thinks DAKER wins only 48%. I'm not sure whether to believe Quackle on this, because the problem with a play like KEF is that I only have one bingo line, which Dave will almost certainly take out. I'm concerned that Quackle's evaluation isn't considering good enough defensive play for the other side. For what it's worth, I brought up Quackle's evaluation of KEF versus DAKER to Dave later, and he didn't buy it. He thought I did the right thing.
>Dave_Wiegand: ADEGNRY M3 GRANDE +25 417
#note From Dave's point of view, if the W is in the bag, I have ENLISTED on row 1 or TENSILE on column M, and he cannot win.
>David_Koenig: EEILSTW N5 WEISE +28 415
#note Best. I take out his highest scoring spot for NY.
>Dave_Wiegand: NY 15C NY +21 438
>Dave_Wiegand: (LT) +4 442
#note Some significant errors in this game on the first two moves, especially move two, and not finding REPUNIT with the blank. I'm still unsure about whether KEF is really better than DAKER. I will need to look at that endgame in more detail later. But overall, I don't think my quality of play was poor. It was a competitive and fun game, much more so than the previous four, but it was still my fifth loss in a row. I went from 20-8, +1009, in third place in the tournament to 20-13, +250, needing to win both of my last two games to stay in the top eight for the playoffs.
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