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#player1 David_Koenig David Koenig
#player2 Steve_Perry Steve Perry
>David_Koenig: GHNRTTT 8G NTH +12 12
#note Attempting to play through here was the start of my problems. Quackle sim (2 ply, ~1000 iterations) prefers exchanging HTTT by about 4 points over NTH. I often don't mind starting with plays like NTH because of the great defensive value, and the way in which they slow down the game, often giving me more time to untangle the rack before the opponent has been able to put down big scores. But I'll trust the computer's judgement here that the GRTT leave is bad enough not to be worth wading through this. The problem is not only that it's a four consonant and no vowel leave, but also that everything is so low scoring that dump off plays on the next turn are likely to score little.
>Steve_Perry: AELVY 9C VEALY +28 28
>David_Koenig: GGLRTTZ E8 R.GG +12 24
#note This is a bit different than the last turn. In this case, playing through makes more sense than exchanging for a couple of reasons. One is that his expected score on the next turn is much higher if I leave the E and A of VEALY open for him to play through. The other is that keeping the board blocked up makes it more likely that I will outscore him with the Z in the near future. Note that with ZE good now, the Z is such a powerful tile that the best trade here is -GGLTT. All of that said, RAGG is an inexcusable error, because GART in the same position is considerably better. There are a couple of reasons for that. One is that it does a better job playing off duplicates, and another is that GART takes no S and only has the H hook, when one H has been played already. As such, it is much more successful at the aim of making the board blocky and slowing him down. Simulation considers this a 4.7 point error.
>Steve_Perry: CDENOOR 7I CROONED +74 102
>David_Koenig: LLNOTTZ 6N ZO +65 89
#note A bit ridiculous. I'm lucky, of course, that his play gave me a 65 point Z bomb, which I need to play here. But the terrible leave means I will be in trouble again on the next turn.
>Steve_Perry: EHX 8L HEX +47 149
>David_Koenig: BLLMNTT -BLLMT +0 89
#note Now I have no choice but to trade. Quackle approves.
>Steve_Perry: EJLO 6F JOLE +35 184
>David_Koenig: AEEIINT 10E .IE +16 105
#note I traded five consonants and drew five vowels, and now I am down by 95 on an ugly board. However, at least I have GIE which plays off my duplicates, sets up the GIEN hook to the triple line, and my rack seems to be bingo prone.
>Steve_Perry: CEIO C9 .OICE +20 204
>David_Koenig: AEIINTT 5I TAI +15 120
#note I'm less than a 10% shot to win here no matter what I do, but this was definitely a suboptimal move for my comeback chances. I completely forgot about the RAGGA hook, so I didn't even see the possibility of NICTATE, which is a nice board opener and scores the most. I don't think that is the best way of playing here, but it still probably would have been better than TAI, which doesn't do me any favors in terms of making the board more dynamic. The same can be said of ENTAIL/TENAIL/TINEAL from H1. However, it's a good idea to keep the game slow here and not break up the bingo rack if I can do so in a way that continues to make the board more conducive to my bingos. And there was a simple way to do that here. The right move is TI 9I hooking ECHT. I thought about playing TAI in both positions and opted for the top one simply because it scored one more point. However, TI is better for a very important reason: it creates a bingo lane at K9. Quackle sim considers TAI as played to be a 4.4 point error. I think that's being too kind to me. TAI is a bigger error than that, because it has a ripple effect into future moves of making bingos less likely.
>Steve_Perry: II -II +0 204
>David_Koenig: AEINTUW 10B W. +13 133
#note Simulation is not much help here. The fact that Steve just traded two and is probably close to a bingo does not bode well for me, but it's not necessarily that relevant to how I have to play here. I'm eager to get a bingo down, but I might also be helped by the fact that he can't necessarily score that much in the interim without opening new lines for me. I figured with half the T's played WO was a worthwhile risk. If I'm lucky enough that he is not holding a T, his bingos may not fit, while I might get mine down on the triple line. And even if I don't get a bingo, I'll still at very least have AUNTIE/UNTIE on the triple line scoring well and opening up the B column for bingos. Simulation prefers the nice scoring M6 ANEW, which cleans the rack up a bit more but also doesn't make the board any more conducive to bingos. Even though this play didn't work out, I think it was a worthwhile risk here. With the rack he had, it didn't really matter. It basically means this game is already lost.
>Steve_Perry: ??AAENR A7 tARtANE +73 277
#note He didn't have a T, but he made both blanks T's to rub in that he could use the spot anyway. Now this game is a laugher. To rub salt in my wounds, my draw was a duplicate U.
>David_Koenig: AEINTUU -UU +0 133
#note Trading UU is the correct play here. There's no worthwhile way to untangle this. I'd rather keep the B lane open as it is. The AEINT leave is my most bingo prone, and at this point the bag is only about 36% vowels, down from 42% at the beginning of the game, so the odds are in my favor of the rack balancing in the right direction.
>Steve_Perry: ADDLQST B6 QAT +35 312
>David_Koenig: AEEIINT C5 NIE +18 151
#note So of course I drew two more duplicate vowels and have almost the same rack I did three turns ago! At this point I'm screwed, but NIE helpfully scores 18 and sets up the ONIE hook, followed later by the BONIE/MONIE hook for more volatility. Another way to play is TECHIE I10, which breaks up my rack a bit less, but that is less subtle and easier for him to block. Pick your poison.
>Steve_Perry: ESSTY 11G STYES +23 335
#note He must be sitting on at least the third S.
>David_Koenig: AEFGIPT 10J FIG +30 181
#note Finally I'm able to just make a normal Scrabble move, scoring 30 and keeping a decent leave.
>Steve_Perry: LOSU M10 SOUL +16 351
#note The only reason he would make a play like this is because he is sitting on the fourth S.
>David_Koenig: AELOPTW 4A PLOW +28 209
#note So this is a good play, because it scores 28 points and there's some hope that he might not know or be sure enough of the BONIE/MONIE hooks (or that I might just beat him to the hook letters.) However, I missed another possibility. Upon drawing this rack, I immediately thought of TOWPLANE, which is the only bingo it makes, but I unfortunately didn't have an open N to get it down. What I missed though is that TOWPLANE plays as a nonbingo at M1 for 38 points. This play scores 10 more points than PLOW, opens up the entire top of the board, and hopes to get the last O for the ONIE hook later. It's difficult to compare this play with PLOW, because PLOW depends so much on him making mistakes and not knowing hooks. But I would have at least liked to have seen the possibility of TOWPLANE for making the decision between them.
>Steve_Perry: ADEFIMS 14C DISFAME +83 434
>David_Koenig: AADERRT 15E TARED +42 251
#note Now I have 0% chance to win, so I figured I would just take what points I could get. Whatever, it's not worth analyzing at this point.
>Steve_Perry: AAIOUU -6 +0 434
>David_Koenig: AADIMRR 3C MAR +29 280
>Steve_Perry: EKN 13I KEN +25 459
>David_Koenig: ADIIPRU N12 PIU +16 296
#note I drew the B as the last tile. This was the tile gods upbraiding me that if I had fished off an I, I would have drawn a bingo.
>Steve_Perry: BINOTUV 4J BOUT +18 477
>David_Koenig: ABDIRU 2D DUB +21 317
#note He's going out with either VINT or VINO, so I should have just played out as many of my tiles as possible with RABID in this spot. Again, I was just going through the motions by this point.
>Steve_Perry: INV M1 VIN. +14 491
>Steve_Perry: (AIR) +6 497
#note Not trading on move 1, RAGG instead of GART, and TAI/TECH instead of TI/ECHT were my most serious errors. Looking back, I played worse in this game than I thought, though the draws were so bad that it's hard to feel that bad about the game. I probably wouldn't have done much better even with more refined play. It didn't bother me at the time. It was only my second loss in a row, and I was 2-2 at the lunch break, still at 20-10.
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