| Player 1 |
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#player1 Chris_Grubb Chris Grubb
#player2 Dave_Koenig Dave Koenig
>Chris_Grubb: AEGMNRT H4 MARGENT +76 76
>Dave_Koenig: AEEEFUY I7 UEY +26 26
#note Quackle prefers this move, which is my highest scoring play.
>Chris_Grubb: BEW J8 WEB +26 102
>Dave_Koenig: AEEFIKU G3 FAKE +27 53
#note This is a tough situation. Though my play is the highest scoring one, the leave is bad and the way it closes things down is less than desirable. In general, I am not too concerned about the immediately closed board, because there is still plenty of open space to eventually extend into. The bigger problem is that with an all vowel leave it is likely that I will be in a position to score less than he does over the next turn. Worst case for me is that he has an A or O and is able to make a high scoring play over F4-F6. There aren't many great alternatives, but the best might be FAKIE 5G to create the R and S hooks.
>Chris_Grubb: ISU I3 SUI +16 118
>Dave_Koenig: AAEIJTU F1 AJI +31 84
#note I believe this gutsy play is merited in this situation. There's an inference that he is close to a bingo rack with another S in hand after SUI. AJI might open up a bingo to the triple for him, but if he doesn't hit the bingo, there's a good chance he won't have any scoring tiles to do damage up there. Furthermore, I can't just sit on the position, when he may hit a bingo with the MARGENTS hook anyway. This play makes sure the board will say open after he hits a bingo. The front hooks for IF are useful too.
>Chris_Grubb: AEISV J1 AVISE +32 150
#note My eyes widened after this play. He scores well and creates more confusion on row 1. But now with my blank in hand and him getting five random tiles, I think that I might be the more likely one to hit a triple-triple.
>Dave_Koenig: ?AENTUU G10 UNAU +7 91
#note Sim prefers my play of G10 UNAU over the second best 2J VAU by about three points. This creates maximum distraction and chances that one of the triple-triples will stay open for my blank.
>Chris_Grubb: ANOX 1D XO.NA +60 210
>Dave_Koenig: ?CEPPQT 13F Q.EP +18 109
#note This was about as bad a swing of luck as possible. He closed the top of the board with a bingo-like score that doesn't give any good downward bingo lanes to me, and my draw of CPPQ leaves me a long way from cleaning up the rack. Quackle simulation thinks my best is F10 PEP, which scores 30 points but blocks the lanes where I would be able to play the Q with no more U's unseen. My play blocks a bit and unfortunately gives him easy use of the H12-15 lane, but that will at least open up a bingo lane for me. Or if he doesn't go there I might be able to use the row 14 lane. Perhaps burning the blank with 13C PICQUET is called for here. It is only 10 extra points, but it does a lot more to force the board open. Sim results should be taken with a grain of salt here, based on the long-term board shape issues, but Quackle thinks QUEP is about three points back of PEP, and PICQUET is two points further back. In any event, it thinks I am no better than 8.5% to win, whereas I was about 34% after UNAU.
>Chris_Grubb: MNO H12 M.NO +34 244
>Dave_Koenig: ?COOPTV F8 COP +24 133
#note There's a very difficult balance in playing positions like this, and Quackle simulation has trouble distinguishing between a couple of different approaches. The advantage of a play like COP is that it not only scores well but also takes away most of the scoring spots from Chris, so that it is very hard for him to pad his lead or speed to the end of the game without opening up more bingo lanes for me. The disadvantage is that if he just dinks a small play through the O on row 15, I probably cannot get a bingo down right away, though I at least will have gained some points on the exchange and forced the game to slow down, while I can then clean up my rack more while I look for other ways to open. There is a different approach of 6D COVER, which increases the chances that I can get a bingo down next turn, but also significantly increases his scoring opportunities. The problem with COVER is that it does not create a long term opening. It's almost a sure thing that he will make a play through the C or the O and I have to hope that he gives me a hook or that I can bingo elsewhere immediately. With the O still in hand the chances of a bingo on row 15 are lessened. Quackle simulation gives them an almost indistinguishable valuation, with maybe a slight edge to COP, but it thinks the winning percentage is slightly higher for COVER (4.08% versus 3.85%)
>Chris_Grubb: EW 14H .EW +18 262
>Dave_Koenig: ?IORTTV 6C TROV.. +17 150
#note Now this is definitely called for. His NEW play has blocked the bottom lane a little bit, but there is still a decent chance for bingos to fit there.
>Chris_Grubb: ?ABEHIR D4 HE.BARIa +76 338
#note A significant error. BRASHIER and BEHAVIOR are much safer.
>Dave_Koenig: ?CDIRST K9 DIReCTS +87 237
>Chris_Grubb: I F13 .I +13 351
>Dave_Koenig: ADELLOT 12A DOLL +40 277
>Dave_Koenig: ADEENRT (challenge) +5 282
#note If you find a good move look for a better one! My move gives me a fighting chance by scoring well and opening a lane, but I missed the five tile overlap bingo C6 TOTALLED. Down by 29 and tempo with a tight board, I would still be an underdog, but the comeback would be much more attainable, especially if I draw the Z.
>Chris_Grubb: AILNOST 15A TALION +33 384
#note Chris told me after the game that he held the S here. I lucked out, because SOLATION doesn't fit on row B and he doesn't have great ways to use the D on column A. Quackle prefers his play, but given the board shape I would at least consider A10 LADINO, which is a significant point sacrifice but makes the comeback much tougher.
>Dave_Koenig: ADEENRT A5 ENDARTE. +80 362
#note I was given a reprieve for my bingo miss on the last turn.
>Chris_Grubb: ES K4 ES +29 413
#note This play spells big trouble for me, as Chris would only play it if he were holding both the D and the R for the hooks on AMUSE.
>Dave_Koenig: HLOOTYZ B2 ZOOT +28 390
#note I still had a lot of time on my clock, but Chris was down to a few seconds. There's no hope to block L1-L4 plays without sacrificing way too many points. I need to look for maximum offense over two turns. At first I looked for ways to combine a play like SHOOT/SHOOL on the bottom right with some kind of big Z score but nothing was working. Then I realized what I needed to do was hope to draw one of the two remaining I's for SHILY 15L. Here I was helped by the fact that Chris was about to go overtime and was likely to throw down his big play quickly without carefully thinking about what I had. ZOOT is the play that gives me a practical chance to win. Note that Quackle simulation will not evaluate this correctly unless you specify a partial opponent rack of DR. There is no objective way to win with optimal play on Chris's part, but there is a chance.
>Chris_Grubb: DFGGIIR L1 GIRD +34 447
>Dave_Koenig: EHLY C2 EH +31 421
#note If I had drawn the I, I would play SHILY here and win by two points! I didn't get my draw, but I created the opportunity. That's all you can do sometimes. I did see my out play of CHYLE, but it lost by 17. With him down to a few seconds, it made sense to prolong the game. The hope is that he might panic in time pressure, not only going overtime but perhaps phonying by misplaying his tiles, allowing me to steal the game.
>Chris_Grubb: FGI 12J F.G +12 459
>Dave_Koenig: LY 15K .LY +7 428
#note Sloppy at the end. Chris overscored FEG as 14 and I didn't notice. Then I missed my much higher scoring out of LOY E5. But I still would not have won.
>Dave_Koenig: (I) +2 430
#note I finished with 7:23 on my clock, and Chris finished with 0:05.
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