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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 cesar cesar
#player2 joel_s joel s
>cesar: ABEEIIS -EII +0 0
#note keeping ES is also worth thinking about. i figured that one was slightly better, but sometimes it's worth not always making the top equity play. i don't think that is a mathematically apt lemma (the top play should always be made) but i figured the difference was small enough that once in a while i like going for it. -0.5 #tacticssmall
>joel_s: HIOTTU 8D OUTHIT +20 20
>cesar: AABELNS D4 ABAL.NES +70 70
>joel_s: ACENOSW 5A COW.ANES +80 100
>cesar: ?AHIQRY A5 .HARY +39 109
#note should have considered 7H QI for longer, of course that's better! -5 #strategymedium
>joel_s: AEGP H1 PEAG. +30 130
>cesar: ?DDIIQU 11D .QUID +30 139
#note i can't believe i almost have quiddity.
>joel_s: ILNT 4H .LINT +12 142
>cesar: ?DEINNO 1H .INiONED +83 222
>joel_s: ?ADRSTU 12G DATURaS +73 215
>cesar: EGIIOOT M7 GOOIE.T +22 244
#note i spent a little while doing math on this move. 2 of the 43 unseen tiles are Z and J, so the chance he drew at least one of them is 1 - (41/43)*(40/42)*(39/41)*(38/40)*(37/39)*(36/38)*(35/37) or about 30%. First of all, is that actually right? And second, i estimated it as roughly 25% - which is not quite right, but i figured it was close enough. I should figure out a better way to do this kind of math. either way, it is probably for naught because the best play is either NOOGIE or GOOIER, sacrificing 8 pts but keeping a more workable leave, and not opening up as huge of a hotspot. -1.5 #tacticssmall
>joel_s: AMPV L6 VAMP +28 243
>cesar: CEEFIIS N9 IF +31 275
>joel_s: FGOR O10 FROG +18 261
>cesar: CEEISTU I7 U.E +5 280
#note i spent a long time on this move and then made a bad play. i should play CURIE 10K here, i considered it and it is aggressive, and good, i have the case S. it might be slightly worse because he is consonant heavy. i strongly considered 9C UNTIE as well, and saw that the bag was consonant heavy (11 vowels and 16 consonants unseen). i knew he probably had like 4-5 of the consonants at least based on his last few plays, so that may even out the bag a little bit, but still, UTE seemed to bingo a lot. my problem is that the bag still has a lot of ugly high point tiles that won't bingo. i was worried that if i played UNTIE or CURIE i would draw 4 consonants and my rack would go to hell. still, i don't know how i spend such a long time on this rack and then make such a lame move. i should be less afraid and play CURIE. there are high scoring tiles to go for like the J, Z, X which i need to outrun him. i even considered DA(CE) for quite a while, which sims almost as well as CURIE. i basically grossly overestimated how much UTE would bingo, and then spent a while trying to justify to myself that i should play it, and then decided it was worth the risk. i was totally wrong. -9.5 #strategylarge
>joel_s: KRY H11 ..RKY +39 300
>cesar: CEEIIST N5 ICE +15 295
#note i don't like blocking my own bingo lane but this seems like the play :/
>joel_s: EZ 10B ZE. +32 332
#note goddddd
>cesar: BDEEIST 6D .BED +20 315
#note i missed ZIBET, which is weird because i'm pretty sure i thought the words "i have ZIBET". -8 #nervousnesslarge #findinglarge i knew i was going to find a way to lose this game because i haven't beaten joel in like 6 games and no matter how positive i was trying to think it was over as soon as something told me to play UTE.
>joel_s: AENV 2F VE.NA +24 356
>cesar: AEILOST B9 A.O +17 332
#note i blocked my own DIASTOLE. OPINIONED is nice, i wish i'd thought of it. i did think of the hook earlier on. it seems like he is going to block much of the time if i do that. #tacticslarge
>joel_s: EX 2M EX +38 394
#note scrabble is a joke
>cesar: EILMRST B1 TRIS.ME +45 377
>joel_s: IJLORW 15D JOWL. +26 420
>cesar: L 4D .L +7 384
>cesar: (IR) +4 388
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