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#player1 Matthew_Tunnicliffe_ Matthew Tunnicliffe
#player2 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe_: DGGOO 8D DOGGO +20 20
>Joshua_Sokol: ALRSTUY F7 U.LY +16 16
#note This game is going to be interesting. Too bad I missed a key option here, E5 LAY(O)UTS, so perhaps things would have been different if I had seen that. I liked this over (G)UY because the leave was less bingo-dependent and slightly less variant. I probably missed LAY(O)UTS because I spent the first minute or so of my time lamenting that SALUTORY* was the word I think Nigel Peltier played against Conrad at 2014 Nationals which Conrad accepted. #findingsmall
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe_: ANTUY E10 AUNTY +21 41
>Joshua_Sokol: ABRRSTX 14A BRAX. +34 50
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe_: EIV A12 VI.E +39 80
>Joshua_Sokol: ?PQRSTU C12 QU. +24 74
#note interesting spot number 1.
I never considered Q(A)T C13, but that and QU(A) are incredibly close in a sim. Q(A)T definitely bingos more, though is a bit less defensive than QU(A). However, considering Matthew's last play was forced, I should be less worried about scoring and bingo defense. Q(A)T is superior to QU(A) in this context. SQU(A)T was also considered, as it scores well and doesn't eat into my bingo chances too much, and I can bingo later anyway when better lanes are possibly open. Other than that, P(A)R, P(A)T, T(A)P, R(A)P, P(A) and PR(A)Y are also options here, which I didn't consider all of, but they are all pretty similar. I decided that my Q bingos weren't likely enough and high-scoring enough to justify scoring around 15 less immediately. Quackle agrees. #findingsmall
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe_: AF 11B FA +18 98
>Joshua_Sokol: ?DPRSTW H6 ST.PWoRD +64 138
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe_: ?ACELNU D1 UNpLACE. +72 170
>Joshua_Sokol: EFIOOOW G11 WOOF +21 159
#note tough spot here. do I need to start being very aggressive? I can play (R)OOFIE 12H or I9 OOF, which I missed, to just keep on scoring and try to get a good rack in two or three turns. Or I can do this and create a threat since I'm a bit far behind at this point. I considered this and WOO(p)IE and WOO(L)IE, but I didn't look at (R)OOFIE much and missed OOF. I kind of like OOF, but I think this was a good idea as well. He might sacrifice equity now to block WOOFS.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe_: EHIJNOS 2A JOH.NIES +90 260
>Joshua_Sokol: BEIIIOR 1H ORIBI +30 189
#note I figured this was better than IF ORIBI for one more since it opened the board a bit more. Perhaps this was misled, as I have many lines to hit that are not getting blocked. However if Matthew does sacrifice his S to block WOOFS, I might find myself at a lack of options next turn and the turn after. I think this is justified. #questionable.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe_: AEE A1 A.EE +36 296
>Joshua_Sokol: EEILNSZ 6H .EZ +32 221
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe_: ELM 3G MEL +19 315
>Joshua_Sokol: ADEILNS 15G SNAILED +88 309
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe_: EEINNRT L8 RETINEN. +68 383
>Joshua_Sokol: ADEGPSV 14J GA.EV +38 347
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe_: ACEIKRT 8K T.ACK +33 416
>Joshua_Sokol: DEHIPST 10K I. +2 349
#note Here are the ways to win that I could find upon analysis:
1) I fish with M7 H(A) and MR are in the bag. He blocks one of PREDI(C)TS and M(O)RTISED and I draw PREDI(C)TS because I can't draw M(O)RTISED. At most 50% chance that when MR are in the bag he chooses wrongly, since plays that block PREDI(C)TS are way better for spread. This is seemingly at best a 1/72 chance.
H(A) is a good fish but only hits column N or row 4, both of which are blockable with a single move.
2nd way to win is by fishing the P, which, if one of RRT are in the bag as well as the M, he could think I am fishing for M(O)THIEST B1 and block there. This is at best a 1/42 chance, due to three separate events having to go my way. Drawing one of 3 tiles, 3/9 * having the M be the last tile in the bag, 1/8 * 1/2 chance of him blocking the wrong spot.
Notably, I cannot play off my P and my H and hope for an MR draw for MISR(A)TED M4 and M(O)RTISED B1 as previously mentioned, since there is nowhere to play PH that doesn't block one of those two bingos. This is quite sad, since there is even a spot to play PHT, and that still blocks MISR(A)TED.
No other bag-emptying plays win the game. However, J2 DITE is cool, since if I draw AI I have SPAHI/DITES and APISH/GANEVS. He wins by up to 17 if he doesn't block and 27 if he finds O(C)TROI, his only block of both spots. I also found that THESP came up short, even if I hit the best possible draws to go out with DI next turn, such as TA for DITA/DI(C)TA, which loses by 13 or 15. I can't threaten huge plays down row O next turn with precise draws, since he can block those by playing horizontally through the TIN of RETINENE or even down from the C or K in TRACK.
I had around 9:00 in this position, but I spent all of my time trying in vain to search for one of these scenarios, and then when it wasn't coming to me, looking for a way to empty the bag and win, and when that failed and my last seconds were ticking down, I went back to a tricksy play I had found earlier in the hope that he would somehow miss that I was setting up PITHE(A)DS with an I draw and block through the K. But I was pretty sure I was dead.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe_: AIIMORT M4 MOIR. +8 424
>Joshua_Sokol: ADEHPST O11 THESP +52 401
#note this was interesting because I also hit DESPAT(C)H with an A draw, which Matthew saw and said it looked familiar. When I drew the A I saw it too and was like "ooh accidental genius sort of". But I couldn't get this win.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe_: IORT N1 TRIO +12 436
#note I can still win if he phonies!
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe_: (DA) +6 442
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