| Player 1 |
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#player1 Noah Noah
#player2 Carl Carl
>Noah: ADGIMOR H4 IMAGO +18 18
#note Perhaps it is better to play DOGMA. I did a 6012 iteration 4-ply sim and it's up 22.9 to 22.4 on valuation.
>Carl: AEFIITZ 5H .AIZE +32 32
#note Setting up the F in two spots. Not foolproof, but it wins the sim easily.
>Noah: AADEHOR 6J DAH +34 52
#note Only considered ODAH, not HAO, here. DAH doesn't give back much if Carl has no hook for EH, but it hurts when he does. HAO keeps a really nice leave and doesn't seem to give back great scoring, though Speedy's average appears to be ~2 higher after HAO.
>Carl: BEFINRT 4L FIB +34 66
>Noah: AEEENOR -EEO +0 52
#note Wasn't excited about playing OE I7 -- maybe I was in too much of a rush to bingo? OREIDE, which I didn't see, perhaps.
>Carl: ?EJNORT G8 JOiNTER +74 140
#note I thought about JOB N2. Noah's range is bingo-prone after Exchange 3, and I wasn't crazy about giving him a big S-spot. JOINTER wins the sim but if you give him credit for a rack like EIST then it's a lot closer. It's also worth considering that a lot of Noah's range containing an S last turn would have played the S last turn instead of exchanging. In any event, there will still be an S-spot after JOB, though it isn't as useful.
>Noah: ?AENRSU 15G SAUNtER +85 137
#note Not sure which is the best bingo out of a bunch of JOINTERS plays.
>Carl: AEEIPRS N9 APERIES +87 227
>Noah: AGILNVY 8K VYING +58 195
>Carl: EEELNOU K8 .ENULE +18 245
#note I remember tanking on this play. I also considered VENUE and LEU F10 . VENULE seemed better than VENUE because it didn't offer a hotspot at L12. Notice also that all the Ls are still out and the bag is consonant heavy, both of which favor VENULE. LEU takes out the KQX hotspot, and sort of closes the board, but is susceptible to parallel plays. One play I didn't consider was ELUTE 12D, which seems pretty good. VENULE ends up winning the sim narrowly over ELUTE and VENUE.
>Noah: AADELOU M10 ODEA +23 218
>Carl: DELORTU F10 LOUT +15 260
#note LOUT seemed better than LOUD because there were 4 Ts left to draw. One option that I didn't think of was LUBED N2, which devalues O1-O4. LOUD sims best, with LUBED/LOUT 1-2 points back. Quackle also considers TOLUID 4D, which is positionally reckless at this score.
>Noah: AABLNSU J9 BUNA +20 238
>Carl: DEIIKRT 13C KIT..D +22 282
#note The sim winner here is REBID N2, and it supposedly wins 2.5% more than any other play, even though I can't hook it or parallel it. Next best is IKON 11D, which I saw but would never play; Noah will always block the spot. Next is IT I7, and KIBEI N2. I saw KIBEI but ruled out it because consonants outnumber vowels 2:1 and Noah doesn't seem to be in vowel trouble. KITTED is next, 5 points behind REBID. I had misgivings about it because of things like OX 12C, which would be very problematic. But I also thought that if Noah had either the Q or the X last turn he would have played it. (-5)
>Noah: AELNOQS D12 Q. +22 260
>Carl: AEEIPRW 3M PAW +28 310
#note I saw plays like AWE/EWE/EWER O10, but figured it was better to gunk up the top right quadrant. Quackle disagrees, playing EWER. (-4)
>Noah: ACELNOS O1 CO.S +40 300
#note Big miss here.
>Carl: EEIIIRY 11E Y..I +14 324
#note Quackle 4-ply sim actually plays EYER O10, keeping III. I saw it, but just couldn't do it! After sleeping on it, it seems clear that EYER is the correct play. This game isn't a race to a bingo, it's a tight board, the bag is full of consonants, and if I draw more vowels then it means Noah doesn't have them. This position illustrates a trap that most mortals fall into. We learn that EYER 27 keeping III is so terrible that we discount it immediately, without regard to why we're doing it. The best players can put aside their habits and look at each position independently of what they have learned previously. Nigel Richards would have played EYER.
>Noah: AEFLNOW 2N W. +26 326
>Carl: EEIIRRR O11 ERR +15 339
#note I could feel this game slipping away, but there's really very little else to consider here. It's either this or REGIE O6.
>Noah: ACEFLNO I8 EON +23 349
#note Missed OF in this spot.
>Carl: DEIIORT J2 DRO.. +11 350
#note I wasn't sure about this play at the time, but it does sim best, taking out the spot that Noah was most likely to use, while hoarding vowels for the endgame as they grow increasingly scarce; just 3 left at this point.
>Noah: ACFHLLS 4F CH. +8 357
#note Not sure.
>Carl: EGIIOTT 14B GI +12 362
#note When I saw this play, I was practically jumping for joy. It wins 25% more than any other play.
>Noah: AFLLSTV 15C TAV +14 371
#note If Quackle's pre-endgame engine is correct here, FLAVA and LAVA win 25% with no inference. I wonder what inferences I can make here though. Do I infer straight IO for Carl? Those are the tiles that LAVA and FLAVA win with, but I don't know of a play that wins with other draws.
>Carl: EEIOTTX 2H TI.E +5 367
#note I only had about 2-3 minutes to think through this endgame, which will often be an out-in-three. The simplest solution is just EXITED 2E, keeping TO G1 or COT F4, which is fine. The best setup play is OXID 2G, threatening not just parallel plays but also OXIDE. I didn't think of this. TIDE looked alright to me because if he blocks, I'd still have COX...TE next turn (he can't pass up MAIZES). My play wins by 13 points less than OXID.
>Noah: FLLMS I1 M. +4 375
#note MAIZES is better.
>Carl: EOTX F4 .OX +28 395
>Noah: FLLS M3 ..S +22 397
>Carl: ET E5 TE +17 412
>Carl: (FLL) +12 424
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