| Player 1 |
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#player1 jacks jacks
#player2 heidler heidler
>jacks: EGGINOS -G +0 0
#note GO, GOING, and xG all seem reasonable. I considered playing GOING to lower variance, but I hit often enough with xG that it isn't extremely variant. GO wins a sim, but it's probably easiest to block the board after GO. There are quite a few bingoes in EGINOS that start/end with vowels, which will do well against a defensive opening play by Greg.
>heidler: AGHTTU H8 TAUGHT +28 28
>jacks: EGILNOS I4 LINGOES +68 68
#note hmm not sure why I chose LINGOES over LONGIES. I think I had taken a while on the opening rack and wanted to be a bit quicker on this move. It's an extremely minor difference but it's definitely a bit defensive and favorable to play LONGIES. Calling it a vision mistake because I saw all the words in the rack but did not consider LONGIES in this spot. #visionsmall
>heidler: ADINNOO 13D DONA.ION +61 89
>jacks: AEIMOSW 6E WOMA.ISE +67 135
#note I saw WAI(L)SOME but chickened out of it. #knowledgelarge
>heidler: ?OPRSTY 4C SPORTi.Y +74 163
>jacks: AAEIRRY 14J YARER +47 182
#note tons of reason to play YARER over ARIARY - besides the extra 7 points (which the AI leave largely makes up for), I love making a play like YARER in this spot to a) prevent him from making an easy 50 point play in this spot, and b) to prevent future plays in this spot from forking the board and making 2 S hooks. OY and YARER don't take an S, which makes the board much less risky, as it depends far less on who draws the S. I am less worried about the WOMANISE hooks even though it's a more likely spot to be hit this turn. It's likely I can draw a hook for it and block it the next turn, whereas after a 14J play it will be much harder for me to control the board. I think I would still play YARER if I was trying to play optimally, but since I feel like a favourite in this game, I really like taking out this easy/risky spot.
>heidler: EIMNV 12A VIMEN +36 199
>jacks: AIIORXZ 11C AZO +47 229
#note IXORA and IZAR are well worth considering. I didn't like IXORA because of the easy scoring spot it created, not only raising his average by 5 points over AZO but also making the position easier to play correctly. IZAR is an annoying play - although it takes out the WOMANISE hooks, it swings an S hook that is very difficult to block. once again i don't want that risk here. IIRX isn't very palatable but IZAR and IXORA are less palatable.
>heidler: ?EELLNO M8 ENrOLL.E +66 265
>jacks: BIILPRX 8L P.RI +27 256
#note PERI is a weird looking play but has some advantages. the X isn't as bad a tile as it seems here - I can draw stuff at 12L and A12 (on top of smaller stuff like IB(E)X next turn), and it also scores consistently, having the lowest standard deviation of any play. IB(E)X may be optimal, it blocks the 8L scoring spot while keeping a more standard ILPR leave. I'm not sure if PIXEL or IBEX or PERI are correct. My gut is that PERI is not optimal but it is justifiable in this position - I should usually lean towards something like IB(E)X since I'm down a tempo, but again I felt like I was in a decent position so I could afford to lower risk a bit. PERI lowers his bingo% by a tiny bit over IB(E)X, but it's about 4.5 vs. 5.3.
>heidler: ADEIVW M1 WAIVED +41 306
>jacks: BBEILUX 2J BUB.L +30 286
#note probably the biggest adaptation I make all game - I set up an E hook, hoping he doesn't know it. I'm no longer in a decent position and need to make something happen. I considered the possibility of him playing the phony I hook or me playing it as well, if necessary. I felt the odds of this staying open and him not knowing the E hook were high enough to justify this. It's definitely a risk but I think it's worth it.
>heidler: DE 1M .ED +23 329
#note unfortunate to see this come down!
>jacks: AEFIIUX 12L F.UX +44 330
#note both a vision and a tactical error. I missed IXIA at 1G and 14A, both of which seem better than FLUX. IXIA at 14a sets up FU? plays for me with D and N draws (or IT draws, etc.). It is slightly annoying because he could easily have an S for basically game-ending ZEDAS plays, or FIT plays of his own (though it seems like I'm favoured with this spot, my average increases by more than his does). I may have played 1G IXIA had I seen it just to be a bit less risky. FLUX vs. ILEX looks close as well - the pool is somewhat consonant heavy, making AEII less bad than usual. #visionsmall
>heidler: EOQTU 3B QUOTE +40 369
>jacks: AEIINTT O10 TI. +10 340
#note after an entire game of overestimating my position, here is a turn where I seem to have grossly underestimated it. I played TI(X) because I decided I probably needed to bingo to win the game. I felt like (V)ITA would allow him to block the 15 row, and then I would have basically nowhere to bingo (barring occasional 1 row bingoes). TI(X) leaves the 1 row as well as the A column, so given a blocking play may end up bingoing more than VITA. however, if I play VITA, he cannot easily block, since I will be in a position to outscore. all the vita blocks are pretty low scoring, so I think I can easily afford to play it. In a sim, VITA bingoes way more than TIX, which indicates the A at 15a is a good lane for me, and it may stay open quite often. The bingo draws on row 1 after TIX are: HR, HS, ES, AS, ID, GS, HS, IR, and RS. given random draws these happen 24/240, so 10% of the time. My position after VITA is surely better than that given the difficulty of blocking the lane while outrunning (just in a 2 ply sim Q has me bingoing 22%). This feels like a strategic error because I did not properly consider the future options after VITA, assuming that a block was inevitable. #strategylarge
>heidler: CK B12 .CK +18 387
>jacks: AEEIJNT 1H JEAN +39 379
#note not in a good position, I kinda have to hope that the tough preendgame will incite an error. In a more hopeless situation I may play 5B JEE or 12H HAJ - both are shitty because of the chance he has an A and the chance he has an S after ICK - I would probably reluctantly still play JEAN and hope he has drek.
>heidler: AADEIRS 14B .AS +21 408
>jacks: EEHIIRT 2F HI +27 406
#note only win, didn't permute everything but it seemed unreasonable that anything else could be better
>heidler: ACDFGR 10F CR.. +12 420
>jacks: EEIRT 7A RETIE +11 417
>jacks: (ADFG) +18 435
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