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#player1 Carl_Johnson Carl Johnson
#player2 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
>Carl_Johnson: ANNOY 8H ANNOY +24 24
>Joshua_Sokol: DEGOORW L4 WOOD. +24 24
>Carl_Johnson: ABEU 9G BEAU +17 41
>Joshua_Sokol: EEGNRTZ K3 ZEN +33 57
#note missing 10J NERTZ #findingsmall
>Carl_Johnson: AEILORV 10A VARIOLE +68 109
>Joshua_Sokol: AAEGORT C8 AR.OGATE +70 127
>Carl_Johnson: IKLL 11E KILL +35 144
>Joshua_Sokol: CDEEEIT A8 DE.ICE +45 172
#note missing E(V)ICTED *and* E(V)ICTEE #findingmedium
>Carl_Johnson: GILMNW 15B M.WLING +51 195
#note smh
>Joshua_Sokol: ?EEIPTT D2 pIPETTE +71 243
>Carl_Johnson: RVY 5C V.RY +20 215
>Joshua_Sokol: AEIORTU B2 URAEI +25 268
#note there are reasons relating to precise move fishing that I think AUREI is a better move here. It immediately gives more back, but there is a slight difference in standard deviation which indicates that higher-scoring plays fit there, plays that can be fished for, such as EXAM or EXAMS. I realized this during the game, but figured Carl would be more focused on building into a bingo than into a play like this. +1.1 but in my opinion this is a #tacticssmall
>Carl_Johnson: ?OQSSTU F14 Q. +31 246
#note this is Carl's rack. He said he considered QUaSS 14F. He probably also considered QUa in the same spot but knowing his style he would not play this since it gives back an immediately lucrative bingo spot for me. Another really interesting play is 14A SO(T), keeping the deadly QU? combination for 14F. It really doesn't appear to be a play keeping the Q, so unless I had a play in that spot, Carl would be likely to be able to play there next turn, perhaps even draw an A or an I to be able to retain his blank. I really like that play, but QUa's numbers are crushing according to quackle. 38-point average score after 66 instead of 66 average score after 31 (assuming Carl finds all of his blank bingos, which is a likely scenario).
Considering the option of recurringly keeping the Q, I think SO(T) would be the play here. #tacticssmall
>Joshua_Sokol: ADNOPTT 12H ADOPT +21 289
#note 12E APT would be nice but it just leaves a lane on 13G that I can't hope to be able to deal with appropriately much of the time.
>Carl_Johnson: ?EOSSTU 3A T.O.lUSES +70 316
#note can you find the other 9-letter word in this position?
This was a great find, and I definitely felt tilted given that AUREI would not have given Carl this play. It was one of the rare occasions that I was on tilt at Nationals, and it's stupid, since he has many other spots to play bingos here, they're just slightly worse.
>Joshua_Sokol: AACENNT 2F NAN +13 302
#note I did not think I could afford to make a waiting/middling play in this position that didn't accomplish anything significant. The pool is such that Carl could only have the last O to be able to adequately deal with the threat this opened up, and it's obviously far less than a 50% chance he has it. It's also possible he has total junk given the few vowels that remain, so I decided I had to go for this, since the upside was so high. Quackle flipflops in preference between my play and 12C (G)NAT, which doesn't address the H1 hotspot or the 2F hotspot. I have to disagree, since Carl will likely outplay Quackle's static evaluator following my (G)NAT move, such that he will be able to give himself a better shot at drawing the tiles he needs to draw nearing the endgame.
>Carl_Johnson: BGHOU 1G BOUGH +47 363
#note Nevertheless, this was obviously a possibility that was bound to occur around 1/3 times, and I was not prepared to withstand this, nor could I in reality. I was very upset at this, especially since my number one rule of thumb in Scrabble is seriously "your opponent always has an O, don't assume they do not"
>Joshua_Sokol: ACEHIIT 6L .TIC +8 310
#note this pre-endgame was extremely complex. I didn't know if I could potentially outrun Carl with something like ITE(M) B12 or 13G CHAI (which I think I missed actually). There are only 2 vowels out of 12, and BOUGH might have left two consonants. I'm now in grave danger of losing.
Quackle thinks Carl will hand me the game if I play (Q)I, which is just not happening. I don't think that play can ever win, especially since it allows Carl to draw vowels from a vowel-less rack way too often. I am open to suggestions as to what to do here, but I felt like I needed to create more threats. I can actually only hit AIRSHED on row 14, which is a disappointing development, but Carl doesn't know that and might actually play JI(N) G13 worrying about that. Good thing about AIRSHED is that it is unblockable, since it plays at M8 and with RACHIDES, as well as DEHAIRS 13H and SHADIER G13. It also requires drawing RS, which are two of the three remaining duplicated tiles, which increases my chances of getting them. I can draw into MESSIAH at M8 as well, but that's also quite unlikely.
I can't hit anything under ADOPT that hasn't already been mentioned, and row 10 is also impossible. The C I'm putting out there is obviously my best friend, and it's very difficult to deal with if Carl has no vowels, so that's what I was hoping for, I guess. There might be something better.
For example I could hit something like EXHEDRA at M1, though CIIT are unplayable. I could play off ITCH for FREESIA M1, and that's it. I don't think that's viable. It's probably better to go for row 10 (ESCHARS, ESCHEAT, STEARIC, etc.). Maybe (T)ITI L12 hits the most bingos as well as thretening scoring plays, though Carl wins outright if he has J(I)FFS or F(I)XED.
>Carl_Johnson: DFIMRSX N5 F.RMS +10 373
>Joshua_Sokol: AEEHIRX O8 AHI +35 345
#note time ticking down, tough endgame, but it's lost. The best I have is K10 EX(P)IRE or just AH O8. I was trying to force an error and also running out of time, but it could come at a cost. -30 #endgamelarge
>Carl_Johnson: DFIJS G13 JI. +29 402
#note 4J J(EW) is his play, but he was worried he had mistracked or I had something he missed. -29, so I'm back to 1 point behind optimal
>Joshua_Sokol: EERX 13I EX +23 368
#note -4 to K8 (O)X #endgamesmall #findingsmall
>Carl_Johnson: DFS 4J F.. +9 411
#note -1 to F(OX)
>Joshua_Sokol: ER B13 RE. +17 385
>Joshua_Sokol: (DS) +6 391
#note don't miss something like E(V)ICTED, don't suffer like me.
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