| Player 1 |
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#player1 Wes_Eddings Wes Eddings
#player2 Reid_Hattaway Reid Hattaway
>Wes_Eddings: EEHPRSS 8B SPHERES +82 82
>Reid_Hattaway: AAKLPWY E7 W.AKLY +32 32
#note Saw PAWKY first but I wanted a more open board to start. My play is #3. Minor mistake at worst.
7G PAWKY
Valuation: 36.8143
Bogowin %: 0.235594%
F6 PA(R)KWAY
Valuation: 33.1402
Bogowin %: 0.222901%
E7 W(E)AKLY
Valuation: 32.5752
Bogowin %: 0.220242%
B6 WA(S)PY
Valuation: 30.1813
Bogowin %: 0.216538%
7G YAWP
Valuation: 30.9713
Bogowin %: 0.215487%
7G YAWL
Valuation: 28.7172
Bogowin %: 0.208983%
7G WAY
Valuation: 27.6826
Bogowin %: 0.206626%
7G YAW
Valuation: 28.2321
Bogowin %: 0.206422%
7G PAW
Valuation: 27.8972
Bogowin %: 0.205992%
7G WAP
Valuation: 27.3809
Bogowin %: 0.205286%
>Wes_Eddings: EGM 7G MEG +20 102
>Reid_Hattaway: AAEENPR 10B PEA. +16 48
#note This was a tough one. I didn't see #1, but my play is a close #2.
J6 PAEAN
Valuation: 29.9182
Bogowin %: 0.23685%
10B PEA(K)
Valuation: 26.6324
Bogowin %: 0.230324%
D12 APER
Valuation: 25.7403
Bogowin %: 0.229557%
12A REPA(Y)
Valuation: 26.183
Bogowin %: 0.226856%
12D A(Y)E
Valuation: 25.8326
Bogowin %: 0.226346%
12C PA(Y)EE
Valuation: 25.8241
Bogowin %: 0.225952%
12A APER(Y)
Valuation: 26.0633
Bogowin %: 0.225782%
D12 AE
Valuation: 24.9872
Bogowin %: 0.224736%
J6 PARAE
Valuation: 26.235
Bogowin %: 0.224121%
J7 AREPA
Valuation: 26.138
Bogowin %: 0.223862%
>Wes_Eddings: CEILO B10 .OLICE +20 122
>Reid_Hattaway: ADENORT 15A N.ED +21 69
#note Spent time looking for a 9 through EM and missed the gimme bingo CARTONED. Sigh. This was a huge mistake. I hated my play and only played to take the spot. My play is #33 based on valuations. I saw AROYNTED but it got blocked.
G6 E(ME)NDATOR
Valuation: 62.5433
Bogowin %: 0.3433%
H6 R(ES)ONATED
Valuation: 58.7862
Bogowin %: 0.325403%
14B (C)ARTONED
Valuation: 57.8147
Bogowin %: 0.324489%
D12 OD
Valuation: 33.0964
Bogowin %: 0.238239%
>Wes_Eddings: BI D12 BI +22 144
>Reid_Hattaway: AAIIORT J6 RATIO +16 85
#note Didn't want to vowel dump here. I didn't look hard enough here as #1 is a beauty. My play is #3. I'm hoping for some momentum from turnover. Minor mistake accordingly to Quackle but as things turned out, it was huge.
14A A(C)ARI
Valuation: 15.7944
Bogowin %: 0.145395%
14B (C)ORIA
Valuation: 15.636
Bogowin %: 0.143886%
J6 RATIO
Valuation: 15.2752
Bogowin %: 0.140781%
J7 AI
Valuation: 12.8464
Bogowin %: 0.14016%
J4 IOTA
Valuation: 13.3561
Bogowin %: 0.13893%
Exch. AIO
Valuation: 9.97796
Bogowin %: 0.136133%
6I AI
Valuation: 10.0768
Bogowin %: 0.13466%
J5 TIARA
Valuation: 11.7744
Bogowin %: 0.133858%
J6 RAITA
Valuation: 12.7909
Bogowin %: 0.133127%
J4 RAIA
Valuation: 10.6808
Bogowin %: 0.132291%
Exch. AIIO
Valuation: 8.86809
Bogowin %: 0.130972%
J5 RIATA
Valuation: 11.3853
Bogowin %: 0.130959%
J6 RAIA
Valuation: 9.95119
Bogowin %: 0.126704%
A9 OAT
Valuation: 9.63155
Bogowin %: 0.125945%
14D RAIA
Valuation: 9.41309
Bogowin %: 0.125944%
>Wes_Eddings: CEINOSV 14D NOVICES +79 223
>Reid_Hattaway: AEITUVZ H12 VI.E +39 124
#note Hated using my E here as they are in short supply now; but I had to take the points. I'm glad this wasn't as bad as it felt. My play is #2. Minor mistake.
H11 EVI(C)T
Valuation: 36.8237
Bogowin %: 0.0316991%
H12 VI(C)E
Valuation: 35.9713
Bogowin %: 0.0311218%
B6 ZA(S)
Valuation: 23.9106
Bogowin %: 0.0200126%
I12 UV(E)A
Valuation: 19.03
Bogowin %: 0.0195959%
H12 VA(C)
Valuation: 10.4002
Bogowin %: 0.0188177%
13J UVEA
Valuation: 17.6552
Bogowin %: 0.0171651%
7A VAU
Valuation: 19.2395
Bogowin %: 0.0165493%
10I Z(O)UAVE
Valuation: 16.8128
Bogowin %: 0.016406%
11E (L)UV
Valuation: 13.7225
Bogowin %: 0.0153726%
B4 VATU(S)
Valuation: 15.8223
Bogowin %: 0.0148842%
6F VET
Valuation: 16.5266
Bogowin %: 0.0148804%
10J (O)UTVIE
Valuation: 13.4757
Bogowin %: 0.0147903%
K4 AVE
Valuation: 11.3121
Bogowin %: 0.0144805%
B4 TIZE(S)
Valuation: 18.5621
Bogowin %: 0.0144194%
A9 VAT
Valuation: 12.1588
Bogowin %: 0.0142317%
>Wes_Eddings: ?AEHMRT B1 TERAoHM. +90 313
>Reid_Hattaway: AOOTUUZ 13J OUZO +28 152
#note The game is over here, but there it more blood to let. Wes blocked my preferred spot. My play is #1.
13J OUZO
Valuation: 20.3282
Bogowin %: 0.000467835%
Exch. OOTUU
Valuation: 3.6185
Bogowin %: 0.000430983%
5B (o)UZO
Valuation: 13.5246
Bogowin %: 0.000430112%
15J OUZO
Valuation: 16.3493
Bogowin %: 0.000357412%
Exch. AOOTUU
Valuation: 4.57969
Bogowin %: 0.000263762%
10J (O)UZO
Valuation: 0.0334831
Bogowin %: 0.000231352%
Exch. AOOUU
Valuation: -0.514531
Bogowin %: 0.00022482%
Exch. AOUU
Valuation: 0.142077
Bogowin %: 0.00020691%
3A O(R)ZO
Valuation: 5.1368
Bogowin %: 0.000187095%
Exch. AOTUU
Valuation: 1.34488
Bogowin %: 0.000186933%
4B (A)UTO
Valuation: 2.22601
Bogowin %: 0.00017363%
Exch. OUU
Valuation: 0.597161
Bogowin %: 0.000161418%
A1 UTA
Valuation: 10.4801
Bogowin %: 0.000156898%
Exch. OOUU
Valuation: -1.30893
Bogowin %: 0.00014262%
Exch. OTUU
Valuation: -1.32796
Bogowin %: 0.000141985%
>Wes_Eddings: ADEISTT H1 STEADI..T +83 396
#note Beautiful find. The game has become farcical.
>Reid_Hattaway: AIOTTUW L11 WU. +30 182
#note The win percentages here are so miniscule that somehow my play is ranked #7 even though it has the highest valuation. I disagree with Quackle here and like my play. I saw the homeless bingo.
I3 TWO
Valuation: 7.52126
Bogowin %: 3.43933e-06%
A9 TAW
Valuation: 11.1565
Bogowin %: 3.07733e-06%
A4 TWO
Valuation: 10.3637
Bogowin %: 1.38e-06%
14M WIT
Valuation: 5.2389
Bogowin %: 1.11e-06%
2F OU(T)WAIT
Valuation: 14.8765
Bogowin %: 3.19333e-07%
L11 WI(Z)
Valuation: 14.9277
Bogowin %: 1.91333e-07%
L11 WU(Z)
Valuation: 21.3277
Bogowin %: 1.88333e-07%
4A W(A)IT
Valuation: 14.1954
Bogowin %: 1.63333e-07%
A9 WAT
Valuation: 8.43633
Bogowin %: 1.31667e-07%
A4 TWA
Valuation: 7.98332
Bogowin %: 1.01667e-07%
A1 UTA
Valuation: 12.9462
Bogowin %: 7.66667e-08%
1E OUT(S)AW
Valuation: 8.45898
Bogowin %: 7e-08%
4D OUTW(A)IT
Valuation: 20.8021
Bogowin %: 6.66667e-08%
I2 OWT
Valuation: 11.5515
Bogowin %: 5.83333e-08%
A1 AW
Valuation: 7.06566
Bogowin %: 5.66667e-08%
>Wes_Eddings: FI A1 IF +26 422
>Reid_Hattaway: AILNOTT 11K T.O +12 194
#note The small winning percentages seem to be throwing off the rankings. My play is #3 based on valuations but not in the top 15 based on simulations. I didn't see LOTAH or NOWT, but I like NOWT for the points.
D4 LOTA(H)
Valuation: 24.5016
Bogowin %: 6e-08%
A5 TAO
Valuation: 13.4321
Bogowin %: 5.26667e-08%
I2 ALTO
Valuation: 16.1878
Bogowin %: 3.33333e-08%
A9 LAT
Valuation: 20.3224
Bogowin %: 3.06667e-08%
A9 TAT
Valuation: 13.3459
Bogowin %: 2.66667e-08%
I2 INTO
Valuation: 11.4099
Bogowin %: 2.5e-08%
11J NO(W)T
Valuation: 19.9209
Bogowin %: 2.33333e-08%
A10 AT
Valuation: 18.2753
Bogowin %: 2.33333e-08%
5E TOL(D)
Valuation: 12.0088
Bogowin %: 2.16667e-08%
11J NO(W)
Valuation: 12.2358
Bogowin %: 2e-08%
I3 TAO
Valuation: 10.0602
Bogowin %: 1.5e-08%
M10 LOT(O)
Valuation: 14.0016
Bogowin %: 6.66667e-09%
A9 TA
Valuation: 17.4076
Bogowin %: 6.66667e-09%
G2 INTO
Valuation: 11.1482
Bogowin %: 6.66667e-09%
11K O(W)T
Valuation: 17.7125
Bogowin %: 5e-09%
>Wes_Eddings: IJL 4A J.IL +38 460
>Reid_Hattaway: AAILNTU G2 UNAI +15 209
#note I'm just going for points and turnover to pull the last blank here. I didn't like clogging the lanes. My play is #14 on win% but #3 based on valuations of all plays. Other than having Wes keel over dead in his chair, I'm not sure why Quackle still thinks this is winnable. I think it's based on setting up some triple triples with a Q and assuming Wes doesn't block. I was right to be hesitant about a vowel dump here as it made the ensuing turns very uninteresting.
10M TAU
Valuation: 10.9917
Bogowin %: 1.2672e-05%
2F LA(T)U
Valuation: 6.17712
Bogowin %: 4.66667e-09%
A10 ANAL
Valuation: 18.7392
Bogowin %: 1.66667e-09%
G1 AUNT
Valuation: 12.7052
Bogowin %: 1.66667e-09%
I9 UTA
Valuation: 13.2946
Bogowin %: 6.66667e-10%
7A A(M)U
Valuation: 20.454
Bogowin %: 0%
A10 ALA
Valuation: 18.0252
Bogowin %: 0%
A10 ANA
Valuation: 16.1854
Bogowin %: 0%
5E AUL(D)
Valuation: 15.9555
Bogowin %: 0%
5E LAU(D)
Valuation: 14.5829
Bogowin %: 0%
A9 TALA
Valuation: 14.2489
Bogowin %: 0%
A9 AAL
Valuation: 14.1402
Bogowin %: 0%
8J (T)AU
Valuation: 12.6954
Bogowin %: 0%
G2 UNAI
Valuation: 11.5997
Bogowin %: 0%
G2 UTA
Valuation: 11.2948
Bogowin %: 0%
>Wes_Eddings: X 13G X. +34 494
>Reid_Hattaway: AGLNQRT 5E QA.. +28 237
#note I didn't think about exchanging here, but I am disappointed that I didn't see #2 QAT here as I had played PEAK earlier deliberately to allow this hook and then forgot about it. My play is #4.
Exch. GLQT
Valuation: 4.88085
Bogowin %: 0%
A9 QAT
Valuation: -10.3552
Bogowin %: 0%
Exch. GLNQ
Valuation: -13.3964
Bogowin %: 0%
5E QA(ID)
Valuation: -17.2181
Bogowin %: 0%
A9 GAL
Valuation: -18.1765
Bogowin %: 0%
A9 NAG
Valuation: -19.1489
Bogowin %: 0%
A9 LAG
Valuation: -20.3693
Bogowin %: 0%
8J (T)RANQ
Valuation: -22.2257
Bogowin %: 0%
Exch. QRT
Valuation: -22.8421
Bogowin %: 0%
2E GL(UT)
Valuation: -23.6121
Bogowin %: 0%
5E GR(ID)
Valuation: -25.5927
Bogowin %: 0%
13A Q(I)
Valuation: -26.8379
Bogowin %: 0%
Exch. LQ
Valuation: -29.3699
Bogowin %: 0%
Exch. QR
Valuation: -29.9757
Bogowin %: 0%
Exch. GNQ
Valuation: -30.5632
Bogowin %: 0%
>Wes_Eddings: ?ABDEFO 1H .OFABEDs +98 592
>Reid_Hattaway: DGLNRRT M1 .RG +8 245
#note I was just hoping to pull the blank here. Wes already had it. My play is #13. Quackle agrees with the number of tiles but still wants to keep board more open than with my play.
11A R(O)T
Valuation: -39.8125
Bogowin %: 0%
11A T(O)R
Valuation: -44.8274
Bogowin %: 0%
C8 (P)L(E)D
Valuation: -45.3971
Bogowin %: 0%
2A (FE)LT
Valuation: -45.6479
Bogowin %: 0%
M10 R(O)T(O)R
Valuation: -47.6921
Bogowin %: 0%
M10 R(O)T(O)
Valuation: -48.539
Bogowin %: 0%
9H (T)R(I)G
Valuation: -49.0568
Bogowin %: 0%
11A G(O)R
Valuation: -50.1565
Bogowin %: 0%
13A L(I)R(I)
Valuation: -50.8254
Bogowin %: 0%
M13 (O)RT
Valuation: -56.7266
Bogowin %: 0%
10M GRR
Valuation: -56.7894
Bogowin %: 0%
K1 (A)RT
Valuation: -56.8368
Bogowin %: 0%
M10 D(O)N(O)R
Valuation: -58.481
Bogowin %: 0%
M1 (E)RG
Valuation: -58.9434
Bogowin %: 0%
11A L(O)R
Valuation: -60.028
Bogowin %: 0%
>Wes_Eddings: EGNORUY F10 YO +37 629
#note No home for Wes's bingo. He misses the beautiful ERYNGO at 15J.
>Reid_Hattaway: ADLNNRT K1 .LAND +12 257
#note I saw #1 here, but went for most points. I'm sure keeping the A for the next play must pay off somehow. My play is #2 based valuations of all plays but not in the top 15 based on simulations.
M10 D(O)N(O)R
Valuation: 3
Bogowin %: 0%
2A (FE)ND
Valuation: -3
Bogowin %: 0%
K1 (A)LANT
Valuation: -5
Bogowin %: 0%
2A (FE)N
Valuation: -6
Bogowin %: 0%
2A (FE)RN
Valuation: -7
Bogowin %: 0%
2A (FE)LT
Valuation: -8
Bogowin %: 0%
11A T(O)R
Valuation: -9
Bogowin %: 0%
11A R(O)T
Valuation: -9
Bogowin %: 0%
2A (FE)TAL
Valuation: -9
Bogowin %: 0%
2A (FE)RAL
Valuation: -9
Bogowin %: 0%
2A (FE)R
Valuation: -10
Bogowin %: 0%
M13 (O)RT
Valuation: -11
Bogowin %: 0%
K1 (A)RT
Valuation: -11
Bogowin %: 0%
O1 (s)LANT
Valuation: -12
Bogowin %: 0%
M8 TAR(O)
Valuation: -15
Bogowin %: 0%
>Wes_Eddings: EGNRU C2 RE.N +19 648
#note #1 play.
>Reid_Hattaway: NRT 3J T.N. +5 262
#note Not much here. I didn't see #1. My play is #2.
M10 R(O)T(O)
Valuation: -7
Bogowin %: 0%
11A T(O)R
Valuation: -8
Bogowin %: 0%
11A T(O)N
Valuation: -8
Bogowin %: 0%
11A R(O)T
Valuation: -8
Bogowin %: 0%
11A N(O)T
Valuation: -8
Bogowin %: 0%
11A N(O)R
Valuation: -8
Bogowin %: 0%
3J T(A)N(G)
Valuation: -8
Bogowin %: 0%
3J R(A)N(G)
Valuation: -8
Bogowin %: 0%
2A (FER)N
Valuation: -8
Bogowin %: 0%
J12 N(OS)
Valuation: -9
Bogowin %: 0%
M11 (O)N(O)
Valuation: -10
Bogowin %: 0%
2F T(UT)
Valuation: -10
Bogowin %: 0%
2F R(UT)
Valuation: -10
Bogowin %: 0%
2F N(UT)
Valuation: -10
Bogowin %: 0%
M13 (O)RT
Valuation: -11
Bogowin %: 0%
>Wes_Eddings: GU 12H .UG +11 659
#note #1 play.
>Wes_Eddings: (R) +2 661
#note 7 (or 10) of 13 plays in the top 10. 7 in the top 5. I missed a bingo early that definitely could have changed the course of this game. Lazy end game. Overall, I give myself a C-/D+ this game. I thought I had played better than I did at the time. Worst loss ever and lowest scoring tournament game I've ever had.
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