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#player1 Worasit Worasit
#player2 Dave_Koenig Dave Koenig
>Worasit: LOZ H7 ZOL +24 24
>Dave_Koenig: AEIOTVX I6 VOX +35 35
#note Interesting sim result. Quackle thinks OX is a bit less than two points better than this. Obviously it keeps a more balanced leave, and though the V tile isn't usually a good one to keep, it does go decently well with these letters. However, I reasoned that it would be a lot easier for him to score on parallel plays if I didn't play it. However, there is another play that sims far and away best. TAXI is about 5.5 points better than my play.
>Worasit: N 8G N.. +10 34
>Dave_Koenig: AEIISTT G5 TIA. +18 53
#note Clearly best.
>Worasit: Q 6F Q. +31 65
>Dave_Koenig: EEILRST 10B RETILES +74 127
#note This is a tough choice between the different placements, and there's an important inference that he is close to a bingo rack which Quackle's sim does not take into consideration. The reason for this inference is not the his last play of QI, but the play of NOX on the previous turn. It is likely he was fishing one with close to a bingo rack and then drew the Q, which he played off keeping the same rack. LEISTER leaves the fewest tiles for eights, but it both opens the double-double lane and gives him a spot for S ending bingos, while RETILES does neither of those things. I thought he might bingo no matter what I did, but I figured that his bingos might score less after RETILES. Again, Quackle results need to be taken with a grain of salt, but it does favor LEISTER by about a point and a half, a small difference.
>Worasit: ?EINORT 11A gENITOR +76 141
#note A nice fit for Worasit. For what it's worth, he would have scored 78 for a double-double if I had played LEISTER.
>Dave_Koenig: ADEOPSU H1 PAEDO +32 159
#note I thought about PAUSED at 12D for a higher score, but this early in the game I wanted to keep the S. Though the board isn't good for S hooks at the moment, there's still a lot of open space for bingos, and the S has value as a bingo tile too. Also, it's early enough that things might develop for the S. The flipside argument is that not hitting the row 12 spot leaves lots of scoring opportunities for him there. I didn't think of APODE, which is a bit more defensive since it doesn't dangle the E. However, I don't think that necessarily makes APODE a better choice in this situation. Though I will take a slight lead, it will be by less than 20, meaning that with a good scoring response for him on row 12 or down to 15A he will still have tempo, meaning I might want the more bingo-prone board to help chase him. With the S in hand already for me and a completely random rack for him, I may be the one better poised to take advantage of the open E sooner. It looks like my judgement was off and PAUSED sims best, about 5 points better than PAEDO. Also, there is another play that I did not consider that sims in between, about two points ahead of mine: 12A OPED, which scores a bit more than PAEDO, keeps the S and probably has the best defense of all of the options.
>Worasit: CILP C9 P..CIL +26 167
>Dave_Koenig: BDESUUV 15C SUBDUE +41 200
#note Clearly best.
>Worasit: BEGR 12F BERG +16 183
>Dave_Koenig: AFGGTVY 14H FAGGY +22 222
#note This sims clearly best, about 6 points better than any other option, though that wasn't obvious to me at first, and I spent some time on my clock thinking about it. The problem is that nothing has a very good leave, so it's best to just clear as much of this rack out as possible, and the fact that I can do that with one of my highest scoring available plays is all the better.
>Worasit: HMOS 15L OHMS +36 219
>Dave_Koenig: AEFNTUV 3D FAUV. +15 237
#note Simulation ranks this as one of my best plays. Significantly it is ahead of the same word for four more points at 2G. There are a few reasons for this: The unseen pool is getting more bingo friendly with us clearing out some difficult letters, and the board opening plays of PAEDO and OHMS have increased the likelihood of another bingo happening very soon. Also, with a significant chance of drawing a duplicate A, the odds of drawing into a bingo with ANT are significantly reduced compared to ENT. Finally, if he doesn't have a bingo FAUVE on row 2 helps him a lot by giving him the lane to 1O. There is one play that Quackle thinks is a hair better than mine: N13 FUM. That is very surprising to me. I suppose it might not like leaving the O8 bingo lane to the opponent, but keeping the V also seems to significantly reduce my bingo chances. I suppose the other advantage of FUM compared to FAUVE on row 3 is that FAUVE opens the D4 scoring lane. After FUM he needs to make a long play to score well.
>Worasit: AEJT 4C JEAT +36 255
>Dave_Koenig: AENNRTY O8 TYRANNE. +86 323
>Worasit: ACM 14A CA.M +20 275
>Dave_Koenig: AELRRTU I12 .U.R +16 339
#note This play is far and away my best, simming eight points ahead of anything else, and Quackle thinks I am over 90% likely to win. Although I don't necessarily want to get into fishing mode with this lead, the leave is very strong and the board open enough and the unseen pool good enough that I have a good chance to bingo. Also, I at least have GRACE on the bottom left on the next turn if nothing better develops.
>Worasit: DEIIKNS N2 DINKIES +80 355
>Dave_Koenig: AAELRTW 5C AWL +36 375
#note This play seemed so natural, scoring well enough to take a 20 point lead and also keeping the strong AERT leave, which is all the stronger in this situation with no unseen A's R's or T's. Note that RE- bingos still fit at M7. However, it is a significant mistake, and it would have been best to just play AW in the same spot and hold the L for a whopping 13 points less. The main reason for this is demonstrated by the game continuation. I wasn't sensitive enough to the vowel-consonant imbalance in the remaining pool, with only four consonants and a blank compared to 8 vowels. Quackle says I have about a 58% chance to win after AWL but almost a 62% chance after AW.
>Worasit: IIW 6A IWI +24 379
#note I suddenly have a 0% chance to win.
>Dave_Koenig: AEEEORT 1D RETA.E +9 384
#note Worasit was threatening an out-bingo of INHOOPED, but blocking it scores little and he will easily get enough on the A column to win the game. Although blocking it is the objectively correct play for spread, there's something to be said for taking the A column myself and hoping he misses the bingo. In this case though, my highest scoring plays of EATERIE/ETAERIO will still lose by a couple of points to M3 HOODY even if he misses the bingo. The three vowel draw did me in, but I invited it by playing off the L with AWL.
>Worasit: ?DHINOO A2 HOOD.Ng +33 412
#note Worasit deserves some credit too. IWI was a strong gambit which cleaned up his rack and created enough openings so that I couldn't cover everything.
>Dave_Koenig: EO B2 OE +16 400
>Dave_Koenig: (I) +2 402
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