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#player1 michael_fagen michael fagen
#player2 josh josh
>michael_fagen: III -III +0 0
>josh: ABENRSW H7 WAB +16 16
#note does his small exchange really tilt the scales in favour of exchanging back here? ABENRS is not good since it only hits with 40% of the pool and AENRS is just gnarly since my bingos score nothing and accomplish nothing. BAWN and BRAWN sim close but giving an N back is already too much, let alone an R. Those letters increase his chances of a bingo quite drastically if we assume a bingo leave.
>michael_fagen: AADELOR 9C ADORA.LE +64 64
#note these moments hurt a lot, because I very well could have not made a play and then he would have a really shitty rack and would probably exchange again or play for 8 points.
>josh: ENORSTY 8A TONEY +38 54
#note I obviously burn 3 to 4 minutes here because I have a Y and I'm convinced I cannot see bingos with a Y in them. Though I saw all the 8s with this rack, one of which uses the D but doesn't fit. Perhaps there is still hope for me yet.
>michael_fagen: AACDNO C7 A..CONDA +24 88
#note this is one of the few plays I complimented my opponent on finding in the last few years of tournament play. Very nice.
>josh: ?AHRRST 15A RASH +45 99
#note 14b c(A)TARRHS was very tempting (I like that word!). But before laying it down I thought about it a bit. I'm scoring 29 fewer with this but my chances of a bingo next turn have to be over 50%, right? The engine says 2/3, and 28% the turn after. If I play c(A)TARRHS I draw into a bingo only 13% of the time next turn, and when I miss, I can basically ensure a bingo the turn after. My average score over two turns is a bit better after c(A)TARRHS, but so is Michael's. It seemed very close. Is there a chance that Michael challenges CATARRHS? I guess a very minimal one, but maybe that is what tips the scale between playing RASH and playing the bingo.
>michael_fagen: GJ 7B J.G +25 113
>josh: ?EIQRRT J8 R.QuITER +88 187
#note Here is where things get interesting. I see REQUITER and I decide that this might very well get me a challenge. I unfortunately miss T(O)RQuIER 11B until he holds R(E)QuITER. I should have considered T(O)RQuIER and frankly, if all things remained equal, such as the likelihood that my play gets challenged, I should sacrifice the 6 points and not open the triple-triple. Based on his comment about me having the S "of course" and his play of J(A)G, I wasn't too worried about what I was opening. And what could be worse than Jason's 284 points in two turns last game? The two plays are neck-and-neck in a simulation, which gives a lot of fodder to the safer play considering Michael's rack is at least average given he did not play G(O)JI or JI(N)GO last turn.
>michael_fagen: ?EHILNO 15H HO.NLIkE +149 262
#note he held REQUITER for 4 minutes. I asked him 3 times if he had released the hold. Then he played this and I was completely floored. I guess I hadn't learned my lesson.
>josh: EFKPUVZ 12A FU.K +30 217
#note He was clearly unsure of HO(R)NLIkE and almost challenged REQUITER. If it hadn't been for his response, I bet I would have gotten an extra turn. Still, no excuse for losing my focus and missing my best play of F(A)UVE here. This is a huge blunder.
>michael_fagen: EIISSTX 6H SIXTIES +91 353
#note this is now approaching ESCAPIST,ZABAIONE territory
>josh: EEPPRVZ 5I PEEP +37 254
#note I don't know what I should do here. This seemed counterintuitive as it blocks much of the board. I was counting on getting a very timely bingo from O8 or barring that, something almost as nice on row 8. This is the sim's favourite, and considering the possibility of recursion, keeping ahold of my Z for huge plays in the next few turns, PEEP has to be the right play
>michael_fagen: BY E11 BY +29 382
>josh: AEFIRVZ 14B F. +20 274
#note plan now is to draw an L for VELARIZ(E) and get a free turn. a T would be OK too. I have maybe 2 turns to hit something.
>michael_fagen: DEIMNRU 13F UNMI.RED +76 458
#note ughhhhhhhh
>josh: AEIIRVZ N1 VIZIR. +36 310
#note still tryna win... :(
>michael_fagen: AACEOOS 1M O.A +18 476
>josh: AEELMOT 3L ME.E +30 340
#note had forgotten to track some E's, but this is probably still better than MA(Z)E considering I am trying to play down to the E in HORNLIkE
>michael_fagen: IOTU 10J .UOIT +16 492
>josh: AAGLLOT D4 LAG... +18 358
#note I guess give up and play TALLA(GED)...
>michael_fagen: GSUV O7 GUVS +39 531
>josh: ADLNNOT 11G DON.T +14 372
#note E3 NOD is better to block TWICE/CLAGGED
>michael_fagen: CEEIOTW E3 COW +28 559
#note but Michael did not see it or know CLAGGED, so I win 3 points over optimality
>josh: ALN G7 AL.N. +15 387
>josh: (EEIT) +8 395
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