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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Jeff_Fiszbein Jeff Fiszbein
>Jim_Burlant: AABDFOU 8G FOU +12 12
#note Chose this because, after struggling with no clue what was best, I decided that the F-U combo was the worst of all the offenders, and that was what I needed to get rid of. A sim makes clear why I struggled: approaching 1500 iterations, 8G/8F FOU, 8G FUB, 8G/8E FADO are virtually interchangeable atop a sim. The difference between the first and fifth best of those options is 0.07% winning chances and 0.3 equity. (-0.3)
>Jeff_Fiszbein: HM 7H HM +22 22
>Jim_Burlant: AABDEGT 6F GATED +26 38
#note Find a good play, look for a better one. I saw the two triple letters on row 6 and fixated on taking them out, which rendered me blind to row 9. I chose GATED becauseI didn't want to play BATED and give back the front A hook down the E column and I didn't want to give him ABATED and let him play through the A if I floated it. GATED is not awful, but I missed two better plays I should have found: 9F BADGE scores 33 and 9F GAED (Championship Player's preferred choice). (-2.7)
>Jeff_Fiszbein: ANY 5E NAY +20 42
>Jim_Burlant: ABENOUY 4C BUOY +27 65
#note Saw this and didn't look for anything else. This is best. 55% to win.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: IJ C2 JI. +24 66
>Jim_Burlant: ABENRTX J8 RAX +33 98
#note 3B NIX is also worth consideration, and a sim still can't decide past 1500 iterations whether this or NIX is best. They win within 0.01% of each other, and the equity difference is 0.1 points.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: GOR 5J ORG +11 77
>Jim_Burlant: BCEILNT K9 LIB +21 119
#note Statically this play is awful and 2A INJECT (which I never even looked for) tops the kibbitzer's list. A sim tells a different story. The duck says I had more or less the right idea but I should play BINT for 2 more. BINT wins the sim, and this play is the runner up, winning 0.5% less often at a 0.8-point equity deficit. 66% to win.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: EILNSTW 12E WINTLES +67 144
>Jim_Burlant: CEIMNRT H10 ME.RIC +30 149
#note With no 8's available (CENTRISM and INTERCOM are the only 8's in this rack), I saw this and couldn't break the tunnel vision to find anything else. Quackle says I should just play CWM for 20, and I get where Quackle is coming from. If I play CWM, the duck assumes he's either going to play to H15 or through the J and I have a good chance of hitting a bingo with my remaining EINRT. A sim and Championship Player both think this is an inferior choice, though the sim is harder on it than Championship Player. The sim thinks it's a 7-point dog and that I'm giving up 5% winning chances relative to playing CWM. Championship Player thinks it's a 5 point dog which wins 3% less often than CWM. Then again, given how this game panned out, perhaps this was the game-changing play on my end?
>Jeff_Fiszbein: AEHINRS 15H .HAINERS +92 236
#note What's he doing with this if I play CWM on my last turn?
>Jim_Burlant: ?AINSTV M8 SANaTIV. +72 221
#note Several minutes spent looking for the nonexistent bingoes down the N and O columns. I saw NATIVISM 10 A, 14C NATIVIST, and felt this was best, if only to prevent big plays at N10. Quackle agrees: this is best, and it's 27-1/2% to win.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: AAGU 2B A.UGA +30 266
>Jim_Burlant: ADEKOOO 1F KOA +27 248
#note Blocked; I was going to play JOOK 2C. AS for this, it's close, but no cigar. I'm probably better off playing OAKED 4K since there are still so many E's left. This is the sim runner up, at 20% to win.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: LOPT 11C PLOT +24 290
>Jim_Burlant: DEENOOT 13C DOTE +19 267
#note I initially considered DENOTE 13A, but rejected it as reckless. I then saw DONEE but didn't want to part with my E. Then I saw this. Q says this is the right idea, but wrong execution. With 6 E's still unseen, I shouldn't worry about keeping mine. DONEE for 21 looks better.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: ?DEEILT O8 TIDELEs. +77 367
#note Best bingo for Jeff, and now I'm in real trouble: he's 98% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: ADENOSU G8 .OU +11 278
#note Q thinks I should play 14F DUI; not sure I see that. From my vantage point all I can do is fish to the best possible leave and hope he can't block row 2. 5.5% to win.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: EEPW 2H WEEP +16 383
>Jim_Burlant: ACDENOS 12B DO +9 287
#note No bingoes play. I'm sitting on the case A and a check of the tile pool shows he can't do anything about the A column if I play DO, so DO it is. The duck likes OCA 12A; I don't, as it's impossible given this pool that he can't just take that out and kill the opening. The duck thinks I still somehow have a 1-in-10 chance of winning; I don't see how. Even with the best case draw for me and worst for him, I won't be able to q stick him. Since I don't see a win, all I can do is set myself up to save spread. I'd make this play again.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: Z J14 Z. +31 414
>Jim_Burlant: ACEEFNS A9 ENFACES +94 381
#note This also plays at 3H for 94, but whatever - I can't win this game.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: EIIQRRV 7E QI +19 433
>Jim_Burlant: N 1F ...N +10 391
#note Outside of somehow not finding BADGE/GAED, the game really came down to whether I should have turned down 30 in favor of a two-tile dump. Kind of a tough break.
>Jim_Burlant: (EIRRV) +16 407
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