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#player1 josh josh
#player2 craig_rowland craig rowland
>josh: EEIMTTX H6 EXIT +22 22
#note MIXT was the standard option, but my aversion to vowel-heaviness continues down a straight path, even if my option is less defensive. MIXT sims 1.5 points higher than this, but I am not sure how much of that is overlaps or plays that Craig just won't make in reality.
>craig_rowland: AEY G6 YEA +24 24
>josh: EIMNRST 10B MINTERS +79 101
#note To open the triple here? Doubt that's the right choice for 2 extra points. Take the game-complicating options when it's close
>craig_rowland: FORU I3 FOUR +17 41
>josh: DEILNOW H1 ENOW +47 148
>craig_rowland: EFRY C9 F.ERY +30 71
>josh: DILLNUV 1C UNLIV.D +12 160
#note VULN(E)D is likely the better version of this, scoring 14 more and facilitating scoring plays downwards from the V when Craig doesn't open any new threats and doesn't bingo. VI(R)L was standard but seemed to make the game quite dull and easier to play for my opponent. F4 LUD blocked the T, the biggest threat (and honorable mention to VI(R)L for partially blocking the T too, which adds a lot of value). I have nothing to gather from F(I)ERY, so I'll trust that this is probably a bit much in my position. VI(R)L leads to more bingos for me too, and if I don't like the board after VI(R)L I can sacrifice 2 points, block the T better and play LIV(YER), which I missed.
>craig_rowland: AEWZ 12A WA.EZ +42 113
#note VI(R)L also blocks things like this which are not good for me. Not like I could really prevent a letter from being put on A12 leading to a play to the triple which opens a new lane.
>josh: ADHILLP 11E ID +33 193
#note (W)HIP and (W)HAP are tempting, but this was me still holding onto the idea that I can control this board and stay ahead. I think it's OK.
>craig_rowland: CHI A12 .ICH +36 149
#note this was exactly what I wanted to prevent but couldn't figure out how on my UNLIV(E)D turn.
>josh: AHILLPT C1 .PHILL +22 215
#note this was an awful play though. I totally forgot about the YER and EX spot for this entire turn. Many plays there are much better
>craig_rowland: ??DENOR 15A .ORDEiNs +86 235
>josh: AIJPSTT F13 AJ. +25 240
#note not in great shape now, those extra points last turn would have helped greatly
>craig_rowland: AEGRU F3 AUGER +27 262
#note now he can easily score without opening anything, and actually randomly block my 9
>josh: EINPSTT 4B P.T +10 250
#note tons of ways to fish here, which is honestly all I can do in this spot. I chose the most aggressive to maximize my success. I worried about him having an S, but he can score 40 there, it'll be an even game after that and a bingo for me. I thought it was the correct gambit to take.
>craig_rowland: EK 2A KE. +18 280
>josh: EEINSST J6 SESTINE +71 321
>craig_rowland: BDMU K10 DUMB +29 309
>josh: ILOORTV 14J VOLTI +42 363
#note an unwarranted OV(E)RTOIL was blocked, but this is almost as good as the bingo would have been.
>craig_rowland: AGO L11 GOA. +28 337
>josh: AABEIOR A1 O.A +21 384
>craig_rowland: ACGNOST N8 AGNOST.C +63 400
>josh: AABEIQR O7 QI +39 423
#note I really should have gone for (BA)A/A(T) instead of O(K)A, but I had to make a move with barely 10 seconds left on the clock. I calculated a lot of lines and nothing seemed to win 100% of the time, but I think it makes more sense to minimize chances of drawing the Q to at most 1/6 and hope he doesn't block QI(s) H13. It seems like quite the concession to make, when this only loses when I draw QA AND he has ACGNOST, or if he has AACGNOT (CONTAG(I)A) which appears to be far less likely than average, even though he didn't have the S when he played KE(P). Perhaps I undervalued the likelihood of him not having the S, since in reality he actually just drew it after GOA(L). Rich position, too bad I got burned. I wonder which play between O(K), O(K)A and (BA)A/A(T) is the most accurate.
>craig_rowland: O 14F .O +11 411
#note If he drew the A or the Q, he would have lost. Haven't had a bad beat like this in a wihle!
>craig_rowland: (AABER) +14 425
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