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#player1 David_Koenig David Koenig
#player2 Chris_Lipe Chris Lipe
>David_Koenig: AADIOUV 8H AVOID +22 22
>Chris_Lipe: DGLOT K7 D.GLOT +16 16
>David_Koenig: ?ANNPTU M2 PANTUNs +77 99
>David_Koenig: EHJTTUW (challenge) +5 104
>Chris_Lipe: BCKO 10J B.OCK +29 45
>David_Koenig: EHJTTUW N1 JEW +39 143
#note L1 JUTE is a much better play. Not only does it score much more and avoid slotting the J, but HTW is not so bad for an all consonant leave, as it has good scoring potential.
>Chris_Lipe: CER O2 REC +19 64
>David_Koenig: HLORTTU H4 ULTR.HOT +62 205
#note I was more lucky than good. He wasn't able to score off of the J, and I drew a bonus despite my suboptimal leave. At least I was good enough to find the bingo.
>Chris_Lipe: EIINRSS 5D RESI.INS +82 146
>David_Koenig: AEGNNNY O6 NANNY +41 246
#note GENNY in the same spot is best, and I considered it. I knew GENNIES was good and thought GENNY was too, but I worried that there was a chance it was gennie* instead. At double challenge, I probably would have just played GENNY and let my opponent worry about whether to challenge, but at five point challenge, you have to be really sure of your words.
>Chris_Lipe: AGR I2 RAG. +9 155
>David_Koenig: BEEEFGO D1 BEFO.E +28 274
#note Prior to his play, I was debating between this and the safer 4B BEEF, which scores one point less and keeps a slightly less balanced leave but doesn't open a triple-triple. However, once he set up the TRAGI hook to the triple line, I immediately preferred this one. The chance of me blocking a big play hooking TRAGI is greater than the chance of him playing a nine timer through the B.
>Chris_Lipe: DEEILTU C6 DILUTEE +63 218
>David_Koenig: AAEGMOZ C2 MOZ +53 327
#note I didn't think of 1A ZAMBO, which looks like a better version of this, but either is better than 12A ZOEAE. There's no reason to create that kind of opening for him. My play is an awfully nice one to have as a second best fallback, as it scores a lot and blocks up the board in a helpful way, but the way the game continues is a good illustration of why ZAMBO is better. Even when you're ahead and don't need to bingo, rack management is important, because it can stop you from getting into bad racks that slow you down, limit your ability to close down important lanes, and give the opponent chances to catch up.
>Chris_Lipe: FLUX D12 FLUX +54 272
>David_Koenig: AAAEEGV G9 AGAVE +22 349
#note This is probably my best option, but the limitations of this rack are a direct result of keeping too many vowels on the previous turn. I frustratingly don't have any good plays through the U or X of FLUX, but with this play I at least turn over a lot of tiles and block a few lanes.
>Chris_Lipe: DEEIT 15C E.ITED +42 314
#note This is a great swing for Chris. My rack was just bad enough at the point that he exposed the X, and then he was able to score off of it to the triple in a way that creates a bingo lane from 14H.
>David_Koenig: AAEMQRS 12I QA.S +26 375
#note If I were down 9B QUA would be a good play. But here I'm playing defense and trying to block as much as I can. I would much prefer it if I had an I, so I could play QIS/DIGLOTS to take out the row 14 lane.
>Chris_Lipe: IOPW 8A PI.OW +33 347
#note Another strong play that scores well, gets rid of what are likely his most difficult tiles, and creates a wide open bingo lane through the P. Chris has done many things right to keep him in this game, and now I am looking at a difficult one-tile-in-the-bag position, though fortunately I had plenty of time on the clock.
>David_Koenig: AEEHIMR 13L HIRE +19 394
#note There is no guaranteed win for me here. However, there is a very important principle here that makes a big difference in my winning percentage. First I had to see that if either of the two I's was in the bag, he would have an out bingo of 14H OSTIARY. My high scoring play of B10 IHRAM will not be enough to outdistance the bingo. This is crucial. Chris gave himself a chance to win not only because he created an open enough board, but also because he kept scoring enough to keep my lead within a bingo. Next I spent a long time convincing myself that he would not have a bingo anywhere else if he were holding the rack ?AIORSY. He doesn't, even though ?AIOPRSY seems very promising. Then I had to consider what other bingos he might have, most likely with ?AIIORS. I didn't actually succeed in seeing SPORIDIA, but I considered that he might have a bingo through the P which I wasn't seeing, and I thought it was likely that the bingo would fail to hit the triple if it was there. I could guarantee a win if I could make a play that blocks OSTIARY and scores enough to outdistance SPORIDIA, but alas that does not work here either. My highest scoring block of KHIMAR still loses. Once I have established that I cannot block or outdistance all bingos, I need to play the percentages, and the important principle is that I absolutely must play as if an I is in the bag, i.e., to block OSTIARY instead of SPORIDIA. When there are eight tiles unseen and only one duplicate, even if I assume a random draw of seven of those eight tiles, it is twice as likely that an I is in the bag than any other tile, which means ?AIORSY is by far his most probable rack. In truth, the percentage chance of him having that rack is even higher, because the assumption of any seven of the last eight tiles is a bad one. It is highly likely that he would be aiming to play off duplicates on previous turns, decreasing the chance that he has both I's. For example, if he had been holding three I's on the previous turn, he would have been more likely to play WILI instead of PILOW. Once I know that I need to play for him not bingoing, it also makes sense to split up my scoring tiles to score more over two turns. I also need to be careful not to make a play such as 13L HEAR that doesn't actually block OSTIARY. I chose HIRE over HEIR in the same spot to not give 14J YeARS as a big comeback, but I missed another big spot for the Y.
>Chris_Lipe: ?AIIOSY F8 SAY +46 393
#note Nicely done by Chris. It's slightly better to burn the blank with SAYs in the same spot, since I am going out.
>David_Koenig: AEMR 1D .REAM +27 421
>Chris_Lipe: (IIO?) -3 390
>David_Koenig: (IIO?) +3 424
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