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#player1 Christian_Oktavius Christian Oktavius
#player2 Alexander_Gozali Alexander Gozali
>Christian_Oktavius: EGOOPSS 8D POGOS +22 22
>Alexander_Gozali: OV F8 .OV +15 15
>Christian_Oktavius: AEIOOSS 7G OO +8 30
#note 11D OOSE slightly better
>Alexander_Gozali: APZ 6H ZAP +32 47
>Christian_Oktavius: ?AEFISS K2 FrAISES +83 113
>Christian_Oktavius: AEILRVW (challenge) +5 118
#note Highest scoring bingo
>Alexander_Gozali: BH 9E B.H +26 73
>Christian_Oktavius: AEILRVW 8K .WIRL +36 154
#note 8K SWIVE, not sure about that one
>Alexander_Gozali: LL M8 .LL +4 77
>Christian_Oktavius: AEFGRVW 4J V.W +18 172
#note M7 VILLAGER
>Alexander_Gozali: ?DEIINT 5B IgNITED +78 155
>Christian_Oktavius: AEEFGOR 7M FOE +25 197
>Alexander_Gozali: ADHU 4B HAUD +29 184
>Christian_Oktavius: AEEGIRU N10 AUREI +18 215
#note Saw a bingo but don't know that FILL have E back-hook!!
>Alexander_Gozali: CIY 3A ICY +34 218
>Christian_Oktavius: EEEGIOT 12J GOIT.E +16 231
>Alexander_Gozali: AAERRRT 11G ERRATA +21 239
>Christian_Oktavius: AEEEEUX 12D EAUX +31 262
>Alexander_Gozali: NU A1 UN. +9 248
>Christian_Oktavius: DEEEMOS 6N ME +24 286
#note B1 MOCHIE
>Alexander_Gozali: BI C12 BI +22 270
>Christian_Oktavius: DEEJOSY 14B JOYED +45 331
#note Found this situation very interesting, and this is why I suspected the quackle winning percentage has inaccuracy.
After 5000 times simulation, which made my laptop lagging and took about 15 minutes to generate, quackle choice are:
11B JOEY for 45, 91.33% winning chance
14B JOYED (my play) 91.02% winning chance
6B DE for 27, 89.66% winning chance
7C JOY for 33, 88.65% winning chance
I didn't see 11B JOEY play, which I agree best, but the main point is:
The winning chance probability is way EXAGGERATED (too high) in all move. Even I play JOEY in 11B, I expected that only give 60-70% winning chance. Here's probably the main cause:
Quackle generated Alex possible rack by randomly pick 7 letter for 21 tiles unseen (AACDEEGIKLMNNNNQRRTTT), which hard to contain a bingo, HOWEVER THIS WAS NOT THE TRUE CASE
Alex was "dare" to open a bingo line, in which position that hardest to be blocked. It is very, very likely that he leave 5 very strong combination (EINTR, AINTR, AENTR) for example. Playing JOYED may enable him to bingo in triple word for high 80++ points bingo, but after almost 5 minutes, I only calculated should I play JOYED for 45, taking high risk, or JOY in 7C, for 33. Completely didn't see JOEY in 11B which obviously better in this situtation
I leave the reason why JOEY is far far better play than JOYED to you, the main point I want to say in this long note is:
SOMETIMES QUACKLE ANALYSIS CAN BE INACCURATE, and once again, eventhough it can be more accurate, you have to account that you and your opponent know all words and perfect anagramming skill, and playing perfectly
>Alexander_Gozali: AMRT 15E MART +25 295
#note Luckily for me, Alex picked too many consonants and cannot bingo
>Christian_Oktavius: CEEGIST 6B CIS +37 368
>Christian_Oktavius: DEEGNRT (challenge) +5 373
>Alexander_Gozali: NQ 14M Q.N +12 307
>Christian_Oktavius: DEEGNRT 13H GREED +19 392
>Alexander_Gozali: AEKLNNT 2K .LANK +24 331
>Christian_Oktavius: NT M1 T.N +6 398
>Christian_Oktavius: (ENT) +6 404
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