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#player1 Becky_Dyer Becky Dyer
#player2 Dave_Koenig Dave Koenig
>Becky_Dyer: AFLOO 8H ALOOF +24 24
>Dave_Koenig: BEEGITU K7 B.UGIE +18 18
>Becky_Dyer: OOX L11 OXO +40 64
>Dave_Koenig: AEEIMPT L4 METI. +24 42
>Becky_Dyer: AGIRRSU 5F SUGARI.R +68 132
>Dave_Koenig: ADEHNOP M3 PA.ED +34 76
#note I saw that my rack held both PARED M3 34 and NOH M11 35. I figured it made sense to play one and hold the other in reserve for the next turn. I reasoned that NOH was unlikely to get taken away with only three O's left unseen, and that with the backup scoring spot for the H at 6F I should play PARED first, especially since the M3-M7 spot was usable by many different tiles, and there was a good chance she might hit it first. My reasoning might have been great in an endgame, but Quackle thinks playing NOH first is better. I think the reason is that my bingo chances are significantly greater with the ADEP leave and the open S and L, not to mention the lanes for sevens on rows 7 and 9. Early in the game you need to maximize those bingo shots.
>Becky_Dyer: DEEENP 4B DEEPEN +22 154
#note So I drew into a bingo of HISTRION anyway, but she blocked the spot.
>Dave_Koenig: HIINORT M12 OH +30 106
#note Quackle agrees with me that holding onto the N is better here, and the main reason it does (I believe) is that the extra synergy and the -ING possibility on row 10 go a long way toward canceling out the disadvantage of keeping duplicate I's.
>Becky_Dyer: EOW 3B OWE +27 181
>Dave_Koenig: FIINRTW N6 WIT +35 141
#note This move sims best. Though FIRT has a slightly better static leave value than FINR, again keeping the -ING possibility on row 10 tips the balance.
>Becky_Dyer: ACDELOT 2B LOCATED +93 274
>Dave_Koenig: DFIINRR 1G FIR +32 173
#note It was a very close call between this and FIRN. Although this play does keep the -ING possibility alive, it keeps a less balanced leave. Also keeping the N may cause regret as the bag has emptied significantly more, still leaving four N's unseen. I was aware of the N situation, but what made me pick FIR is that, staring at a large deficit, I wanted to keep the extra tile in the bag to prolong the game. In an even game, I would definitely prefer FIRN. Furthermore, even at this score, I'm not sure whether I made the right call here. In retrospect, I might try FIRN if I had a do-over, even though I did end up bingoing on the next turn.
>Becky_Dyer: AYY 1A YAY +42 316
>Dave_Koenig: DILMNRU 7B DRUMLIN +64 237
>Becky_Dyer: IQ 8A QI +36 352
#note Her play is illustrative of one of the reasons I chose the row 7 spot instead of row 9. In addition to leaving the row 10 spot open, I also have the possibility of bingos down the A column.
>Dave_Koenig: ABGJORU N2 JOG +32 269
#note I realized right after I played this that it might have been better to do JAG, on the basis that this was the last O and there are three A's unseen. That said, my choice did not work out poorly for me.
>Becky_Dyer: INV N10 VIN +25 377
>Dave_Koenig: ABEERUZ O1 RAZEE +76 345
#note Now, with the bag running low but both blanks still unseen, I decided playing off the extra tile (instead of just RAZE) was called for. That said, vowels are getting scarce, so there's a little bit of an argument for going the other way. I'd stick with RAZEE if I had to do it again.
>Becky_Dyer: ?CINNST 9A INCaNTS +77 454
>Dave_Koenig: ABESTUV O12 SEV +20 365
#note This is a Hail Mary attempt to draw the blank and the S, after which bingos hooking SEVS will be unblockable. (It's completely true. Without the blank and S, she won't be able to make any six or seven tile play down from the L in ALOOF.) Even if I do hit an unblockable bingo, she often can score enough to outdistance it, but in a few cases I win. One of my best draws is ?HS, which gives me HAGBUTS, but even that does not guarantee a win, if she is holding the right letters to get QINTARKA down first! Quackle simulation has SEV winning about 4.1% of the time, which is much better than any alternative it comes up with. (And it's probably overestimating the winning percentage of the alternatives against a savvy opponent.) Even though it didn't work out for me, I'm proud that I came up with this play. Becky had lost all thirteen of our previous tournament games, so if this had worked, I cannot imagine how she would have reacted.
>Becky_Dyer: ?HK 10B KHi +45 499
#note Becky had the S already, but she was unsure of SEVS. Fortunately for her she has plenty of other ways to score.
>Dave_Koenig: AAABNTU 11C ATUA +17 382
>Becky_Dyer: ELRST 12B ERST +23 522
>Dave_Koenig: ABN J1 NAB +14 396
>Dave_Koenig: (L) +2 398
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