| Player 1 |
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#player1 jackson jackson
#player2 karl karl
>jackson: EEIIITX -EIIIX +0 0
#note I've had these racks a few times before, and I always tend to exchange. EXIT gives back SO much more than exchanging, and with EII my counters to those parallels will be pretty bad. Just straight up I lower his average by 8 and raise mine by 14, and then my average rack is better on top of that.
I like keeping ET at the beginning rather than EX, the X is pretty poor early game
>karl: IQ 8G QI +22 22
>jackson: AAELPTV H7 V.A +6 6
>karl: KOY I9 YOK +23 45
>jackson: AEELMPT J6 METEPA +44 50
>karl: LP 10G PL.. +15 60
>jackson: AEGHLSU 12D LAUGHS +39 89
#note didn't see TEGULA, but I prefer this after his fish
>karl: EHJU K3 JEHU +32 92
>jackson: DEIIOTU K11 ETUI +22 111
#note hated everything here. Maybe TUI? he has a lot of Ss after PLOP but it's no guarantee. I underestimated how comparable DEIO and DIO are. Combined with avoiding the X bomb and easy 14 row scores, TUI looks better.
I laid down L5 ETUI first, but it seems too big a sacrifice. He doesn't have an S always, and when he does he usually just scores well, but then leaving the L column scoring spot open for myself is a good thing.
>karl: ?CEENRV 14G VERN.CEs +78 170
#note ugughghghghghghgh
I hated this at first, it didn't look at all familiar. But then I thought about it (always a bad idea) and talked myself into it cause of VERNIX. I didn't know of any -X words that seemed like they could go to -CES but didn't.
>jackson: DDDIOST L4 DIDO +29 140
>karl: AACLMNS M8 MANACL.S +76 246
#note such a huge swing!
>jackson: ADERRST N3 STARRED +67 207
>karl: BFFU 4G BUFF.. +16 262
>jackson: AEILOTY O8 TOILE +37 244
#note really fortunate he didn't have an O column play last turn!
tough call between TOY and TOILE - I'll be at a deficit and may need a bingo to win, so TOY is better in that sense. Given the board I felt there was a decent chance I could get back without bingoing, and preferred to shed the vowels in the vowel heavy pool and keep the Y for 5 row scoring plays. Q says it's close - I average more after TOILE but bingo more after TOY. TOILE wins a sim slightly, 1.5 valuation higher. Really not sure here, the board isn't very good for scoring and it may be smarter to go all in for the bingo.
one thing to consider is that karl seems to tend towards fishing, and on this board fishing isn't very dangerous cause there aren't many good lanes, which makes me more inclined to try and outscore in case he scores badly to keep a good leave.
>karl: ORR E10 RO.R +8 270
>jackson: ADEINOY H12 .O.D +24 268
#note I was very happy to see ROAR come down, now outscoring is a real prospect. I figure he just has low scoring bingo tiles, duplicate Rs quite likely.
I might want to do O1 NAOI instead to keep a better scoring rack, saving H12 plays for next turn and the Y for the 5 row. Q likes SOY to go for the bingo. If I think his range is really strong, SOY gets better to try and counter bingo when he hits. Hmmmm
I think I'd do NAOI if I could redo this position
>karl: ?AAINRT D4 gRANITA +66 336
>jackson: AEGINSY 8A YAG. +24 292
#note ugh I hated this play but felt lazy and didn't see much better.
the idea was to have him either not block for whatever reason ( a bad rack and fearing I could outscore if he blocked for small) or if he blocks and leaves the 5 row or something.
I thought about G3 ABY which is harder to block if he doens't have a B or G, but then my worry was getting outscored.
so far the play seems like (G)Y(V)E at g12 - it keeps good draws like 15A AGENIZED down the road as threats, and I can open something up next turn. Either way I'm totally fucked in this position!
>karl: EEIINTW 9B WI. +16 352
#note luckily part of my plan worked out and he didn't block the 5 row. actual rack
>jackson: BEEINOS M2 BE +12 304
#note after BE I can only draw SEROTINE and NEGRONIS on the left side (nothing to the Y after any of my fishes). after OBE I can draw SEROTINE and NEGRONIS and ENERGIES. So it seems BE is a better fish in that aspect.
both BE and OBE have the plus of forcing him to empty the bag if he wants to hit the triple for lots of points. He can still play to leave one in the bag and outrun pretty consistently though, so I was really going for him not having an O here. I don't see anything that actually wins in any reasonable fashion though - too many things have to go right with be and obe. Let me know if you see anything promising
>karl: EEINOTW 1M ONE +14 366
>jackson: EINNOSZ 1L Z... +23 327
#note going for the G draw and NEG(R)ONIS, hoping he totally spaces on the spot
>karl: EIIOTWX 15M .IX +31 397
>jackson: EINNOOS 5D .ONIN +16 343
>karl: EGITW O3 TEW +18 415
>jackson: EOS 3G OSE +20 363
>jackson: (GI) +6 369
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