| Player 1 |
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#player1 Roger Roger
#player2 Bryn Bryn
>Roger: AARU H5 AURA +8 8
>Bryn: CDENPST 5E PED.NTS +40 40
#note PANDECTS doesn't ring even the slightest of bells
>Roger: DHO 6D DOH +32 40
>Bryn: ACFILNW 4D CAF +30 70
#note Vaguely considered FINCA A4 but this definitely looks right to me
>Roger: BIRS J2 BRI.S +15 55
>Bryn: AILLNSW 9B INWALLS +67 137
#note Preferred this placement since it prevents Roger from opening the bottom right quadrant and makes it more difficult for him to score on row 8. He's likely consonant heavy after BRITS so the available vowel on the E column potentially gives him a bailout, but I think the pros outweight the cons
>Roger: EEINOPS 3H PE.EIONS +72 127
>Bryn: ELNOQVY O1 NO.Y +33 170
#note Missed both ENVOY N2 and SLOVEN O3. I prefer SLOVEN here but wouldn't play ENVOY over NOSY.
>Roger: JNO L1 JO.N +38 165
>Bryn: ABEELQV B8 Q.BLA +22 192
#note Neck and neck between QI and QIBLA. Just praying he doesn't have the Z, but need to be careful not to be too paranoid and overadjust here. QIBLA is a significantly better static play than QI, and while the downside is massive, a lot of the time he can't hit me for much more than the difference in value between QIBLA and QI (aka QI sacrifices about ten points to QIBLA, and his likely response is about 12-15 points better than QIBLA). This play was slightly more nerve-wracking after he just played JOIN, since it's harder to range find (a 40 point J-play could keep either a scoring or a bingo leave). Another thing I like about a play like QIBLA is that if Roger can't obviously cash the hotspot I gave him, he may himself overadjust/respond suboptimally
>Roger: DEWY A12 DEWY +44 209
>Bryn: EEIOOVV C7 VI.O +26 218
>Roger: CETU E9 .CUTE +14 223
>Bryn: EEGORTV 14D ERG +16 234
#note Went off the board here, but not much is appealing. ERGO D12 handily wins the sim, but I like how ERG continues to complicate the position. ERGO just asks him to find his six to the TWS, but what do you do here? I'm more likely than him to be able to use row 15 since I keep an O, and ERG will demand a skillful response from Roger
>Roger: AI 1K A.I +10 233
>Bryn: EEILOTV 15F OLIVE +27 261
#note Roger is almost certainly bingo prone so the J14 hotspot works to my advantage. This does give back an S hook on a board without any, but OLIVE is a whopping 10% better from a winning chances standpoint than the second best play
>Roger: ??AAIKT J8 mAlAKIT. +62 295
>Roger: ??AAIKT -- -62 233
#note He said he thought it might be a variant of the valid MALACHITE, never mind that it gives me back GRATINEE
>Bryn: EEGINRT 13C TR.EING +28 289
#note Need to score and play defense here
>Roger: ??AAIKT 12G KA +16 249
>Bryn: EHMTUXZ H1 ZE. +42 331
#note Missed both MU(RE)X D11 and (Y)UTZ A15. I was under 3 mins of time at this point, and was cognizant of the fact that I needed time to play a proper end game after he bingoed. I can't waste my time here deciding between MUREX, YUTZ, and ZEP so I played this in like 10 seconds.
>Roger: ??AFIOT 11H FOlIATe +72 321
>Bryn: EHMTUUX 12L METH +37 368
#note Definitely appear to have misjudged this position. I thought it would be hard(ish) to lose after METH despite emptying the bag - I still don't see how the duck has Roger winning 36% (!) of the time. He basically has to have drawn a bingo from H8 (stuff like AEROGRAM and ARMIGERO is available) or A2 (METERAGE, MODERATE, etc.). I suppose the reality is the pool really is pretty decent for bingos after FOLIATE so I just have to accept the possibility of losing this way. I don't think MUREX is going to outrun stuff GRODIER so I think I need to take my medicine and just try to block as much as possible. I calculated non-bingo plays for Roger from J14 and couldn't see ways of him outrunning, but it's a big whiff missing MUREX. UH 10M sims best (win percentage of 83%), so it seems like blocking the D hook on FOLIATE is correct here - the fact that it wins a crazy 20% more than my play indicates that I may in fact be in danger of being outrun. UH obviously saves MUREX to prevent that possibility. I think the bigger takeaway from this position is how silly ZEP is in hindsight, considering it gives him a bingo-bango possibility with a pool that could really use a floating E. Mismanaging my clock almost burned me in this one.
>Roger: EEGMRRT 14J MERGER +40 361
>Bryn: ADIOUUX 15C OX +35 403
>Roger: T L10 T.. +5 366
>Roger: (ADIUU) +12 378
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