| Player 1 |
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#player1 jackson jackson
#player2 rafi rafi
>jackson: AAEMRST -A +0 0
#note very interesting first turn - I sat for over two minutes on this play, partly because I saw a phony word that I wanted to make sure was phony.
I also wanted to permute AEMRST here to make sure it was worth it over playing MA. I hit 72/93 tiles which is huge. It's also nice to hold the M to make my bingoes score well, and to have good options if I miss.
I tend towards exchanging, as Will noted in the commentary. I especially do this on the first turn, because I'd rather not increase his options, and I felt like it was easier (i.e. takes less of a sacrifice and is more effective) to make a defensive play after AM than after exchanging.
>rafi: AHOPSTT H7 PHT +16 16
#note nice opening by josh! v defensive
THO with the T on the star is also interesting, but 7s play much more easily, whereas after PHT it's way harder to play a 7, and many of them will give back the triple.
>jackson: AEMNRST I8 MARTENS +71 71
>rafi: ALOSTTU 12C TOLUAT.S +68 84
#note Interesting choice - OUTLAST looks pretty bad actually, cause it leaves just one scoring spot and once I hit it Josh is screwed - it lowers his average by 6 and leaves mine alone.
TOLUATES is more defensive than OUTLASTS and doesn't just give one spot back, I like it.
OUTLAST woulda been cool to race to the OHMS hook though. You definitely don't want to play OUTLAST if you think you're the favourite in the game, cause OHMS is unblockable and increases the volatility of the board
>jackson: CEEFFKM J6 FEM +26 97
#note KEF looks nice at 13b. the lower left part of the board is definitely the place for scoring, so I considered FEM and FEME and FLECK around there to muck it up. FEM J6 does well for me scoring next turn, but KEF lowers his average much more.
I liked FEM because a lot of his plays give me reparallels, but KEF is just so much more defensive to begin with. I also hold the M for HMM plays, and the F for occasional OFF plays, so I think I'm the bigger favourite on the KEF board. I chose FEM over FEME for obvious reasons, I felt 4 points was just a small enough sacrifice to hold onto the E. Q likes FEME in the same spot a bit better, as the second to highest play.
Holding the E felt bad at first cause I usually only sacrifice greatly when the E is in a bingo rack, but when I really want to make high scoring parallels next turn on the lower left, I felt like the E was going to give me a greater assurance than just holding CFK.
>rafi: ABDEUWX 11B DEWAX +52 136
#note BDEU is actually a big improvement over BU - not enough to sacrifice 8 points though.
>jackson: ACEEFKR 13B FAKE +41 138
>rafi: BBGLOTU 10A BOB +20 156
#note surprised this isn't BOG instead - BL works well together and G doesn't pull its weight
BOG > GOB cause the B is much harder for me to score off of
>jackson: CELPRUZ A7 CLU. +24 162
#note SCRUPLE and SPRUCE were tempting for different reasons - SCRUPLE is nice because Josh leaves the spot open very occasionally, in which case I can sometimes hit big Z plays. If it were an N or something rather than an E I was putting out there, I would be more inclined. only ZEES and ZOEA play as 4s.
SPRUCE was tempting because I was sure of the hooks (DRS) and Josh may not be. I chose CLUB beacuse the board is really bad for scoring which makes me disinclined to open a big scoring spot when I will be left with nothing.
>rafi: EGLNOTU 9E GUT..E +17 173
#note TOUT is standard here but I like GUTTAE - there are NINE Is to draw, making the G a good thing to put in the open. Once again, since he can afford it, no reason to be overly aggressive here.
>jackson: ENOPRVZ K2 PROVEN +29 191
>rafi: AEILNOW 13G WI.O +24 197
#note the I does help him bingo more, but AEILN is way worse for scoring than AELN, and this board isn't great for bingoing, although it's not terrible. There are still 8 more Is to come, and AELN works better for scoring next turn despite a dip in bingo %.
>jackson: ADINRVZ 4H VIZ.R +42 233
>rafi: AEILLNO H1 OLI.E +24 221
#note another case of keeping the I when it seems like the only good thing about the play. If Josh's MO is to fork properly, it's nice to have an E at H5 to make a better lane - LAEVO can be blocked pretty much entirely with G1 or I1 plays, since the O in LAEVO isn't a good lane. OLIVE actually increases his bingo% by a bit, it looks fine
>jackson: ?ADDGNY 2K .ADDY +24 257
#note hated everything that wasn't paddy. It doesn't give back very much, I like it
>rafi: AAELNQR O1 N.ALA +27 248
#note Looks counterintuitive but it kills the sim - Josh needs to make something happen here as he's down more than tempo and there are 2 blanks out. QI goes nowhere, he averages far less than NYALA. He does bingo more next turn but only by a bit, and down the road it will pay to reach for blanks.
>jackson: ?GINRSY L7 SYRINGe +81 338
#note definitely whiffed here - I remember seeing SPRINGY but I think I didn't register how good it was to play with VIZORS. I don't remember thinking this through at all.
SkRYING and ScRYING score 83 to SpRINGY's 81, but they put the I at M8 which allows QI and J- plays which are really bad. Looks well worth it to take the 2 point hit and totally wreck the bottom right.
I remember not being too worried about leaving the N column open cause I can outrun those bingoes, but it's still good to totally close off the opportunity.
>rafi: CEIIOQR K10 QI +37 285
>jackson: EEINORS 8L .ORE +21 359
#note Moment of truth here - I spent a long time deliberating (D)OSE and (Y)ORE and trying to find other better options.
DOSE looks standard - score points, don't open any big lines for Josh. My big issue was playing my S, which I felt was worth well more than 7 points in terms of outrunning potential. I'm leaving 10 in the bag, meaning 3 in the bag if josh bingoes. My S can be used for setups on row 14-15, scoring on row 14 and column M, so I felt that outrunning wise, YORE did better.
Since OLIVE is a board forking play, I didn't really love taking the defense route, because Josh can open from the Y next turn and I'm in the same position as this turn, just trying to outrun. If OLIVE wasn't a fork somehow, I would be more inclined to be defensive.
As well, adding to my bingo chances doesn't hurt, although that's not my primary motive. Bingoing will end the game, which helped put YORE a bit ahead in my mind. My main MO with this play was to just accept that Josh will bingo and keep my S to outrun. There are definitely worried here, and maybe the R lane I'm opening is too potent to really expect to outrun consistently, I'm not sure.
>rafi: CEHJOOR 2F JO.E +27 312
>jackson: AEEINST N7 T.AINEES +70 429
>rafi: ACHINOR E4 CARIN. +18 330
>jackson: ?DEGIIU O13 DIG +20 449
#note bad, SUEDES
>rafi: HO 14I .HO +28 358
>rafi: (EIU?) +6 364
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