| Player 1 |
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#player1 Jason Jason
#player2 Mack Mack
>Jason: IIII -IIII +0 0
>Mack: ADFOSUX H7 FAUX +28 28
>Jason: BIZ G6 BIZ +32 32
>Mack: DNOSSVV 10F VO. +21 49
#note Seems worth it over exchanging
>Jason: NY 8G ..NY +16 48
>Mack: ADLNSSV J7 S.LVAN +20 69
>Jason: ?ELRTTU F1 TUTELaR +67 115
>Mack: ADGHRSW 1F .HRAW +33 102
>Jason: IO 2J OI +11 126
>Mack: ADGLOOS 12H GO.DOLAS +76 178
>Jason: BETU N10 BE.UT +26 152
>Mack: AEEINNP O10 IN.PAN +36 214
#note Significantly better than PENNIA/BA to block BEAUTS, since there's a good chance Jason has one after OI, plus he played BEAUT pretty fast
>Jason: ?EIOPRS 3F .RIPOSEs +84 236
>Mack: AEEEHMR H12 .HEE +24 238
>Jason: CU 14F CU. +11 247
>Mack: AEIJMOR E4 RAJ +37 275
>Jason: E 4D E.. +6 253
>Mack: ACEIKMO C3 AMOK +26 301
#note A large equity sacrifice over COMAKE or 4L MOCK, but it seemed warranted after Jason's one-tile fish. After this he pretty much has to bingo through the O or from the E, and if he doesn't this turn I can probably shut both down.
>Jason: GIR 4L RIG +13 266
>Mack: CEEIINW 5J WIENIE +26 327
>Jason: EE 6A EE. +9 275
#note Smart play by Jason - if he doesn't give himself another lane now I'll close off the O and be able to hold on in a game of cat-and-mouse from then on.
>Mack: ACDFOQY A4 CO.D +10 337
#note I think I got too cute here. My purpose with this play was saving M11 FLY for 40 and B1 QAT if I draw any of the 3 remaining Ts. With FLY availably a play with COEDS should never be enough for Jason to win so I don't need to worry about that. The problem with COED is that if Jason bingos through the O he blocks FLY, so it's going to be very close if I do get QAT down (I might still eke it out but hard to say). And worse, if he bingos through the O and I don't get a T I'm almost definitely sunk. Also a problem is the strong possibility of COEDIT, which I saw but (unwisely) dismissed as insignificant - I figured I'd just outrun anything he has after FLY, but that again is probably only true if I draw a T. Better seems to be the more standard DEFY, which puts be up 85 - a lot for Jason to make up even if he does bingo. And starting with a vowel at 8B isn't all that easy, plus even if he bingos I've still got a decent shot - QAT with a T as before, and his bingo may give me a decent spot for QI as well should I draw that. And DEFY seems immune to the main situation where COED can run into trouble - a bingo through the O. DEFY scores so much more than COED that I'll still be up 25 after a bingo through the O, which will certainly be enough if I draw a T and may be even if I don't, since even if I'm Q-stuck I'll have 7 tiles to dink off one or two at a time along with Jason to accumulate some points with myself. I don't think COED is a huge mistake, but especially because of the COEDIT possibility that occurred in the game DEFY seems a little better.
>Jason: IT A4 ....IT +27 302
>Mack: AFIQTTY B1 QAT +26 363
#note Champ says B9 AFT wins 80% to QAT's 68% but I'm not so sure I'm convinced - after QAT, if Jason bingoes on column B I've still got a good chance to outrun with FLY. Plus I'm basically entirely sunk after a bingo through the O after AFT, but after QAT a bingo through the O will tie the game and I may have some outrunning hopes even without FLY if I draw something like B8 NIFTY or 6M EFT. So I think QAT > AFT, but in retrospect if I'm going to play QAT I should probably just play FLY first. My outrunning plan for a column B bingo (which neither QAT nor FLY blocks) is QAT followed by FLY in some order, and the odds of either play improving after Jason's bingo are next to none. So the order doesn't really matter, and FLY at least blocks bingos through the O that might not play on column B. It also doesn't leave Jason a chance to fish for a bingo in both spots like QAT does - after FLY, if he fishes, I block column B and he can't bingo so I win. But as what happened in the game shows, QAT can result in a dangerous situation if Jason plays off one tile, further showing why FLY was better:
>Jason: D N4 ..D +9 311
>Mack: EFGIMTY M11 F.Y +40 403
#note The best I can do, winning 7/8 unless the O is in the bag, in which case Jason bingos out with DARNELS and wins by a couple. Blocking column B is worse since he could have LADRONES or LARDOONS on column L for a 2/8 chance instead of a 1/8 chance.
>Jason: DELNORS O1 DENS. +27 338
#note Fortunately the O isn't in the bag and I pull out the win despite suboptimal preendgame play
>Mack: AEGIMT I11 T.M +20 423
#note I had about 10 seconds on my clock after agonizing over the preendgame. K11 ADMIT is best by 4.
>Jason: LOR 1L LOR. +6 344
#note Jason went over a tiny bit, so 423-344 final.
>Jason: (AEGI) +10 354
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